Let’s Get Blogging

Okay boys. Welcome to 2009. Let’s not rest on our 2008 results. Here is the deal. Find a fact, post it. Keep in mind, this is all about getting to know a teams strengths and weaknesses, trends and facts that we can gamble on. I will be distributing focus teams to everyone this year. I will also be sending you any videos that I have on that team so you can watch games at your convenience. Mow and I (possibly Wardo – havent tallked to him) will be splitting up written/web sources to look over (ESPN.com – all writers, SI, SportingNews, Gambling sites, so on).

Thanks and lets win some freakin money……

This BLOG IS retired

Folks,
It was fun, but the time has come to decommision this blog. Thanks for the memories…
Kirk

Illinois guard Frazier probably out vs W KY

Injured guard Chester Frazier is a long shot to play in Illinois’ NCAA Tournament opener against Western Kentucky.

If the senior defensive workhorse does play on Thursday, it’ll only be a little—which coach Bruce Weber said he’d take against the Hilltoppers and their talented guards.

Western Kentucky (24-8), a 12 seed, relies heavily on its guards. Weber says the Illini could use Frazier’s perimeter defense.

Whether Frazier plays or not, Weber said he’ll lean heavily on his other starting guard, inconsistent sophomore Demetri McCamey, and a bench that was seldom tested this season.

McCamey was the leading Illinois scorer this season with 11.5 points a game. But he disappeared in many games, didn’t play as much defense as Weber would like and spent much of the season in the coach’s dog house.

Mississippi St Game Note

Varnardo is such a great shot blocker – not good great – and he can now score. MSU starts 4 guards and they spread the floor and either drive or get up shots and let Varnardo clean up the mess. This wasnt South Carolina gunning either – seemed a little better coached. Play M2M and got aggressive in this game. They really pressured the ball and played an agressive 2-3 zone. Varnardo is bothered by Big bodied bigs.

Utah Game Note

I just really thought they sucked. I didnt see anything I liked except guard Brown who can dunk. Nevil is obviously large and does change shots, but he is kind of a stiff. He ONLY had 14 double doubles this year – which seems like a bold statement, but he had doubles in scoring every game and you would think a 7′2 dude could grab more rebounds. he plays solid D. Supposedly they can heit 3’s although I didnt see it. San Diego State out athleted them 2 to 1. They really like to play strong defense and they were solid. They liked to run.. but had zero points in transition in what was an pretty up and down game – just could do anything when they did get out. In the first half, shot 27% FG%, had 1 3 pointer, and had 18 points TOTAL. Again, from this game just was not impressed.

Binghampton Game Note

Rivera is a solid scoring guard for them. They start 4 guards and like up tempo. Can get careless with the ball. Their defense was agressive with doubles all over – controlled chaos, but did leave folks open. They really like to dribble drive – actually dont shoot that well from 3. They play loose and free – no issues – and Fuller is an athletic forward. I got the idea that they could score.

Morgan State Game Note

Repeat regular season champs with Reggie Holmes leading them Shot 151 more 3’s than any other team. They also have the best PG in the MEAC in Itchy Boldin and I thought he was legit solid. Robinson a real solid slasher . PLAy real solid M2M but refuse to switch on d – “Its your man cover him”. They really try to get the ball to the block. Bozeman is doing a good job with them although they only shot 42% for the season. Holmes can go off from 3 and had 21 pts in a half. Guard Bolden can also hit from 3. Thomsan is a very athletic big man. and they had a real nice 3 big man rotation. I really liked this team.

Alabama State Game Note

Up tempo team. PG Brooks was POY who likes to drive and kick. They do like to get out in transition. 1/2 court offense was weak – too much standing around. Good rebounding but did give up a lot of 3 pt looks. 7′ kickingstallionsims not bad, but didnt try to get ball to him? They scored only 23 in the first half.. yikes. They will get eaten alive by a good driving team. Brooks and Hayes decent 1-2 punch, but got killed on the boards. Not a terrible team, not a good team.

Utah State Game Note

Will not panic as they are old and were 10-3 on road. Wilkenson plays a lot outside the 3.. interesting. They set a lot of back screens and cuts. Wesley is a nice compliment down low to Wilkenson.

Robert Morris Game Note

One of best players sat out first 10 games, so dont judge them in those games. Big man is Robinson – big is subjective – typical small school big, but still a pretty athletic Forward. Team runs through Chappell but did try to get ball in post to keep other team honest. Chappell and Longhurst acn shoot the 3. Fransisco was Defensive POY and he was okay. Bench was decent, too. I did write down that they will not be able to score verse a really good D. I also wrote down that I thought Chappell was only decent. I also researched and found out that they do seem to excel in the 2nd half beating Miami FL in 2nd, tied Pitt in the 2nd, lost to X by 3 in 2nd, and in this game came out strong in 2nd.

Western Ky Game Note

2 really solid guards. Mendez-Valdez and Slaughter – both who played a lot last year. Very good at game management and both can create and hit the 3. PEttigre can also shoot and is decent. The team was really solid rebounders with (F) Karash playing awesome the last month. 4 players score in double figures and 5th averags 9. 2 Bigs for them, one is long one is a big body. A couple of 6′6 guys come in and also contribute. This team will not get flustered with their guard play. I just thought they were a smart team. Did a nice job creating turn overs and won the rebounding battle. They helped down low on defense which did leave the 3 line open a little. Also played M2m and zone. Last, not afraid to play small if their bigs are in trouble.

Misc Notes

ESPN Least Likely to Get Upset using Stats:
Texas 10.5% Marquette 10.5% Tennessee 8.1% North Carolina 6.9% Purdue 5.6% Memphis 3.8% Missouri 0% UCLA 0% West Virginia 0% Duke 0%

Misc Notes

ESPN: The Patriot League final going on right now — it’s American University 45, Holy Cross 29 as I write this — has got to be the least exciting conference championship in the country from a Giant Killer perspective. Both of these teams have had nice seasons, and American beat Army by a single point last Sunday just to get here. But they both commit more turnovers than they generate. And neither packs much scoring punch, even after adjusting for the fact that watching the Eagles play is like watching paint dry — their tempo ranks 329th in the country. Our model estimates American has just a 10.9% chance of pulling an upset if they make the Big Dance, and Holy Cross no chance at all. Go Eagles … I guess.

Misc Notes

ESPN: Most Likely Giants to Fall: Syracuse Orange (37.2 percent) Nearly all of Cuse’s scoring margin comes from free throws; the Orange have attempted a whopping 249 more than their opponents this season, which means one bad ref could take them down. Their turnover gap also goes the wrong way, as they surrender the ball on 20.2 percent of possessions but take it away on just 18.8 percent (which ranks 275th in the country). And their relative lack of size allows opponents to grab offensive rebounds on 36.3 percent of possessions (277th). These factors didn’t doom the Orange in 70 minutes of hoops against UConn on Thursday night, but they do make Syracuse vulnerable to an upstart.

Misc Notes

ESPN: Most Likely Giants to Fall: Butler Bulldogs (69.6 percent) They just lost to a Killer, getting upset by Cleveland State in the Horizon League final Tuesday. And our model says it could easily happen again, should Butler hold on to a high seed: The young Bulldogs have an adjusted offensive efficiency of 109.7, fourth lowest among Giants. They’re held back by offensive rebounding that ranks 183rd in the country (32.6 percent of possessions). They surrender just about as many turnovers as they generate. And when you compare their points scored and allowed, their 26-5 record turns out to be the luckiest of any Giant’s.

ESPN: Butler stopped Cleveland State from getting inside all night long, took a 39-31 lead and stayed ahead at halftime, which seemed significant because the Bulldogs were undefeated this season when leading at the half. But Cleveland State went on a couple of runs to come back, relying on precisely the strengths that make our model like the Vikings as a Giant Killer. They shot 53 percent on 3-pointers (10-19) and held Butler to an equally amazing 21 percent (4-19) on 3s, maximizing the value of their own possessions and limiting the value of their opponents’. They committed just seven turnovers. And PG Cedric Jackson, a highway robber during the regular season, had three steals.

Misc Notes

ESPN: Likely Giants to Fall – Florida State Seminoles (72.6 percent) The Seminoles have a record-high death rate for a Giant. The flip side of being the tallest team in the country is that they have few quality ball handlers, which explains why they turn the ball over on 22.7 percent of possessions — the most of any Giant. And despite Toney Douglas’ 20.8 ppg, they don’t come close to scoring enough to make up for it: Their adjusted offensive efficiency is just 104.6, ranking them last once again on our list of Giants, in part because their effective field goal shooting percentage is just 48.7. Our analysis says that’s a lethal combination.

Pittsburgh Scouting Report — ESPN 3/16

Offensive Preference	Their balanced attack starts with Fields, who can both score and set up his teammates. Young is the go-to scorer and Blair is a dominant presence down low.
Defensive Philosophy	The Panthers’ stingy man-to-man defense is holding teams to under 64 points per game. They’ve held 25 of their 31 opponents to 70 points or fewer.
Secret Strength	The Panthers don’t have a rotation player taller than 6-8, but they dominate the glass. They outrebound teams by almost eleven per game–best in the nation–and Blair is tops in the country at almost six offensive boards per game.
Achilles’ Heel	The Panthers take the “free” out of free throws, hitting just over 67 percent from the foul line.
Will Lose When …	Blair gets into foul trouble. He averaged just over 23 minutes in Pitt’s three losses and fouled out of two of them.
Famous Last Words	The Panthers are playing as well as anyone in the country and should be a Final Four team. The fact that Young is usually mentioned after Fields and Blair tells you just how loaded this team is. They absolutely have a chance to cut down the nets in Detroit.

Early Vegas Lines

http://www.vegas.com/gaming/sportsline_ncaab.html

Early betting lines from MGM and Stations

Chattanooga Game Note

I had to watch this gmae like 6 times. I couldnt figure out how this team lost 1000 games. They have good athletes who can drive and dish. PG could drive and hit the 3 in McDowell,another very servicable guards in Sheard, and then there were a bunch of folks dunking including pretty big body in Doak. Their best player – F Goffrey – missed first 10 games, but still lost odd ones when he got back. Did research and unearthed that primarily win at home going 12-3. The conference tourney was at their home court. Away, they were like 5-8 not counting games verse great teams. They will not be overwhlemed by athleticism of big team as they already played Memphis, Tenn, USC, and Missouri … wow! They are the best team in the country at getting to the foul line as they penetrate a lot. Goood bench and they are 14-3 when they outrebound other teams. They also run almost 100% set plays. They may succeptable to really quick guards and they had pretty loose D on picks. They double the post pretty aggressivly in this game.

North Dakota State Game Note

Very boring and unathletic. Play a real slow pace of game and their defense was only decent. AT one point, the other team was shooting 68% in the game. Not sure they would generate any points verse a good team and their defense was very beatable by anyone with hirght or quickness.

Akron Zips 3-14

Vs Buffalo in MAC championship.

Love the in your face defense all game long. They pick guys up at ¾ court, double team on the sidelines, and contest everything. This is especially impressive considering they are playing their 5^th game in 7 days. Knocked off top seeded Bowling Green in Semi Final. The guard McNeese only averages 6ppg on the year but had a big tourney and most of offense run through him and fellow guard Anthony Hitchens. F McNight appears to be best athlete off shallow bench but bench did outscore Buffalo 20-7 in first half.  Lots of ball handlers and uses pretty good Akron shot 55% from field helped by capitalizing on high % shots. FT was a different story however as they also only hit 55% for the game.  Best win of year #50 at 63-59 Niagra. 3 best teams played, all losses but they held their own. #1 at Pitt lost 86-67,  Dayton #31 at home lost 54-50, and at athletic VCU #54 lost 73-69

Utah State 3-14

Vs Nevada. Front Court bigs made a difference in second half. Gary Wilkinson, conference player of the year is 2 years older than Labron at 26 year old senior. He plays loose and that seems to rub off on rest of team. Utah State 6^th trip in 10 years. Nevada shot 2-24 to start game. Utah State was allowing Nevada to bang offensive boards constantly to recover from 18 point first half deficit. Finished season 30-4 by winning on Nevada’s home floor. Lost bracket buster to St Mary’s in February by 11. Wilkins led team in scoring 12 times this year. They shoot decent from perimeter (39.9% on year) and 75% from ft line. Gutted out a couple good wins in this tourney. Beat New Mexico State by 1 in semi. Non conference schedule weak. Nevada’s offense was terrible but in an effort to come back they started applying pressure with about 6 minutes to go. Utah State struggled with this a bit. I think a team that presses well could really disrupt them. Also put a team with the ability to collapse on Wilkinson or take him out of his game, Gary Wilkinson scored 21 points and Jared Quayle and Tai Wesley each had double-doubles to help Utah State win the tournament championship over Nevada. Anouncers felt they could get anywhere from 10-12 seed and could easily win a game. I think their only chance is if they don’t play an up tempo team or a team that rebounds especially well.

Cal St. Northridge 3-14

Vs Pacific in OT. Forward Tremaine Townsend is their best player. They start 3 forwards and 2 guards. No big guy in the middle. Play young only 2 seniors. On the season, they only shoot 35% from 3 point land which is surprising since they play smaller. Tonight they were better getting off to fast start. They do attack paint almost every time down. Up by 17 early and still took OT to win. Up 6 at half 33-27. Could not hold 9 point lead with 6 minutes to go. Not a great FT shooting team. 11-17 Seemed tight, only 17-13 on the season, and missing some key players. The victory is a bright spot in a tumultuous season for Northridge. In January, two players — including leading scorer Deon Tresvant — and the head coach’s son were arrested on suspicion of stealing $6,600 from an electronics store. Both players were suspended. In February, starting point guard Josh Jenkins suffered internal injuries in a car accident that ended his season. Jenkins led the conference in assists at the time. Can’t see this team not getting blown out. . Not deep. Only 6 players had more than 25 minutes.

West Virginia 3-12

Vs Pitt. 13-13 from the line in first half. This team plays up to all competition and seems to always be tight in games. Pounding offensive glass. Runs floor well.  2 losses to Ptt in regular season. Against Notre Dame last night 20 offensive boards, 10 against Pitt through first half. Freshman DeShawn Butler is developing into a stud. When up, they make you run while running clock (Bilas). Great mental and physical toughness taking to the rack and showing no fear. 1-3-1 awefully good in second half. Hit clutch free thows down stretch. 22-24.Outstanding performance. Great patience. Ruoff in post game “we lost those first 2 and we came here saying in New York, we wil not get out toughed”. 14 point victory over Pitt. Wow. Last 8 game Devin Ebanks, freshman 12 pts.game.

Pitt 3-12

 Vs West Virginia. Only 50% from the line. Got ball inside. If they go to Blair should be able to manhandle almost anyone. Blair is an amazing offensive rebounder but gets big east ref calls for potential charges. Will be interesting to see how neutral refs handle his physical play. Blair foul trouble all game. Difference team with him on bench. Got outhustled. Looked flat but WV was tough. 0-3 when Blair fouls out of game. When they don’t have Blair how long can they go in the tourney scoring 60 points per game?

Louisville 3-7

Vs West Virginia. Giving up way to many second chance points by not rebounding well in first half according to Bilas Terance Williams difference of the game. 5-5 from 3s  Vilas tough. Louisville 8-1 on road this year. Only loss to Notre Dame. Dick Vitalle Top to bottom the best league he has seen in 30 years. ACC number 2, Big Ten #3. Maturity and clutch shots held off a frantic West Virgina run. Big road win to lock down regular season championship and #1 league tourney seed.

West Virginia 3-7

Vs Louisville. Alex Ruoff all time WV 3 point shooter. Scores in bunches typically. 4 fouls and 0 points through first 30 minutes. 2 freshman that are scorers. Aggressive zone defense Cme back from down 10 in first half to close to even just prior to half.  As a team, only average from the perimeter. Better when slashing to bucket according to Jay Bilas. They foul way to much trying to be aggressive. This team will surprise some teams who overlook them. They are aggressive, balanced, and play in a brutal league. If Ruoff does anything, they win this game.

Cleveland State Note from CSU Stat Crew

Notes from CSU Stat Crew:  The Vikings win with defense. They are not strong inside, as the offense relies heavily on the perimeter and three-pointer. Jackson, the point guard, is the engine that drives the Vikings. He was voted Defensive MVP of the Ho League, rebounds well, and can score if called upon. The other offensive option is Bullock, an undersized 6-5 guy that can score in the paint and has a good outside j. They prefer to play man-to-man, but change up by the position to give the opponent something to think about. CSU usually takes good care of the basketball, limiting turnovers and taking decent percentage shots. If they win a game, it will be cause of the stout defense and will, so take the under on the points (both guys I talked to specifically mentioned the under). This team does not possess the individual talent or depth the ‘86 squad had. I would think they are looking at a 13 or 14 seed.

St. Mary’s note — Seth Davis

St. Mary’s will be the most difficult team for the committee to assess.  On the one hand, if Patty Mills didn’t get hurt, this was not only one of the best 34 at-large candidates, it was also one of the best 25 teams in the country. But the fact is, Mills did get hurt, and while the Gaels played reasonably well without him (they lost four of six but then ran off five straight, including a rout at home over then No. 23 Utah State), he looked like a shell of his former self during their two West Coast Conference tournament games, scoring a combined 17 points on 5-for-28 shooting. Saint Mary’s needed to make a statement during the tourney final Monday night, but lost by 25 to Gonzaga. The reality is, Saint Mary’s is left with just two wins over teams ranked in the top 50 of the RPI and an overall RPI ranking of 46. If Mills looked the way he had before his injury, this would be a no-brainer. Now … well, it’s a brainer.

Siena Note–Seth Davis

3-11:  “Much like Davidson last year, Siena played a very tough nonconference schedule this season. Yes, it lost all the big games, but it still got better by playing them, and as you saw by the way it routed a very good Niagara team Monday night, it has great poise and experience, and it can score from lots of different places. Remember now, this team returned all five starters from the team that blitzed Vanderbilt in the first round of last year’s tournament.”