Vanderbilt Andy Katz Blog article Jan

Vandy has a chance to do something special under Kevin Stallings. It has endured the necessary adversity to find itself during the course of a season and is still in position to achieve its goals. The heart of the Commodores’ SEC schedule remains, including two February games against national title contender Kentucky.

Vandy was missing its toughest, and most irreplaceable, player early in the season, as big man Festus Ezeli had two issues: a six-game suspension for receiving extra benefits and an injury.

The Dores were humbled in a home loss to Horizon League contender Cleveland State. Respectable overtime losses to Xavier and Louisville followed, as did less respectable losses (Indiana State).

They have been finding their form since, winning eight in a row. The most impressive of those wins was a 74-57 triumph against Marquette in Milwaukee; the Eagles were supposed to be the tougher team, but Vandy got in their grill and delivered a knockout.

The Commodores enter a three-game homestand as the second-hottest team in the SEC outside of Kentucky, with games against Mississippi State on Saturday, Tennessee on Tuesday and then on Jan. 28 against Sun Belt leader Middle Tennessee.

The Dores are tied with Kentucky at 4-0 for first in the SEC. Before the season, the Commodores expected to be the Wildcats’ strongest competition in the league race.

“We’ve finally gotten consistent practice time,” Stallings said. “If you can’t practice, you can’t get better. Since Christmas, we’ve had the core group of guys practicing.”

Ezeli was out. Lance Goulbourne and Steve Tchiengang were limited while recovering from concussions. John Jenkins had a sprained ankle. Those may sound like excuses, but a team that had been fragile in the past couldn’t afford that many disruptions.

Ezeli has played in eight of the 18 games. The Commodores lost only one — Indiana State.

“He’s huge for us defensively,” said Stallings. “If you look at how we are now versus early in the season, it’s drastically different. We’ve gotten better on the defensive end and a lot better on the boards. We’re nowhere near where we can get to offensively. Defensively and rebounding has taken a big turn for us.”

Ezeli and Tchiengang have the ability to play physical, which helped the Dores dominate the inside against Alabama in a win on the road Thursday.

Jeffery Taylor can be a lockdown wing defender. He can also make timely shots. Jenkins has always been the team’s best shooter. Brad Tinsley has had his moments but is streaky. The overall bench production needs to improve. But there is enough in play, and there’s certainly enough experience, for this team to establish itself as the second-best team in the SEC.

Having Ezeli healthy has changed this team. He’s not a shot-blocker, but he’s a presence in the paint, one Vandy could not do without. When he’s in the lineup, the Commodores’ toughness quotient increases.

“People are quick to call us soft or whatever,” Stallings said. “I would venture to say if you asked teams we’ve played, we’re not soft.”

There are still plenty of games to play in the SEC, but the evidence is mounting that the Dores are remedying the issues that plagued them early in the season

Cincinatti Dana Oneil Jan

 Sean Kilpatrick is the most critical piece of the Cincinnati puzzle.

Not long ago, Kilpatrick was the epicenter of trouble. It was his comments on a Cincinnati radio show that reportedly lit the fuse to what would become the ugly brawl between Xavier and the Bearcats. Kilpatrick said he didn’t believe Tu Holloway would even start for Cincinnati, a nasty enough dissing to get Holloway’s tongue wagging during the game and ultimately, mayhem to ensue.

Now he’s the epicenter of the Bearcats’ turnaround. Cincinnati has won 10 of 11 since that ugly fight, losing only to St. John’s on a buzzer-beater. In those 10 games, Kilpatrick is averaging 17.7 points and kept the Bearcats afloat while Yancy Gates served his suspension.

It was Kilpatrick who hit the game-winning 3 against Connecticut, Kilpatrick who sunk a career-high 27 to beat Georgetown, and Kilpatrick whose 40 percent shooting from the arc will be absolutely critical against top-ranked Syracuse on Monday.

Memphis Dana Oneil January

Memphis is in trouble.

The good news for the Tigers: Conference USA is once again Conference USA, a hodgepodge of average teams.

The bad news for the Tigers: Memphis isn’t Memphis. This team has been something of an enigma all season, loaded with talent but equally bogged down with foolish play and lack of focus.

Now just when things looked better, Adonis Thomas is lost for the season. It’s not a small blow for a team that hasn’t really shown an ability to handle adversity.

Memphis remains the best team in C-USA, but with challengers in the form of UCF and Marshall, this isn’t going to be easy for Josh Pastner.

Dana Oneil Miss State Jan

Mississippi State is Mississippi State.

Which is to say loaded with talent but entirely annoying.

The Bulldogs lost to rival Mississippi on Wednesday night, getting beat up on the inside by Reginald Buckner. This despite having what should be their own formidable pair in Renardo Sidney and Arnett Moultrie.

It is vintage Mississippi State, winning enough games to turn people into converts and then losing one to exasperate those same bandwagon jumpers.

Dana Oneil Xavier January

I’m tempted to say this with authority and move it up a section but I’ll reserve final judgment until next week, after the Musketeers play at Dayton and host Saint Louis.

But I feel pretty confident saying that Xavier has shaken off its post-brawl cobwebs for good. X has won four in a row, winning by an average 15.5 points per game. Equally impressive, the Musketeers have won with Tu Holloway being more distributor than scorer. The guard has just 29 points in those four games (he was shut out against Fordham) but has 30 assists.

The wildly unpredictable Atlantic 10 is wide open for the taking. I’d pencil Xavier in as the taker.

Dana Oneil (ESPN) SDSU Jan

I’ll admit I was impressed but still a little skeptical about the Aztecs after they beat UNLV. It was a terrific win but in such a tight game, it was hard not to wonder how much the home-court advantage buoyed San Diego State.

Now we know.

The Aztecs took their Show on the road on Wednesday night, to the Pit, one of the toughest places to play in all of college basketball, and promptly dug themselves a 10-0 hole.

San Diego State emerged from New Mexico with a 75-70 victory, a win that is maybe more indicative of how legit this team is than the victory against UNLV.

Team Efficiency splits 2012 Wisconsin Georgetown Baylor

 As of games played on Tuesday Jan 10, only four teams are at the 30+ level: Ohio State (34.37), Syracuse (32.34), Kentucky (31.16), and Wisconsin (30.48).

I’d say that makes the Buckeyes, Orange, and Wildcats pretty good bets for an Elite Eight run or better, but you can’t trust Wisconsin no matter what the stats say. Twice in the past five tournaments the Badgers have gone into the tournament with a 30+ efficiency split. Two other times they were over 25. They have yet to make it out of the Sweet 16, and didn’t even get there twice. Until Bo Ryan shows his style can actually get the job done in the Tourney setting, I’m viewing their potential with a heavy dose of skepticism.

I said you can’t trust Wisconsin. Same goes with Georgetown. In 2007, their efficiency split was 35+ and they made the Final Four. In 2008, it was 30+ and they lost in the second round. The past two years, it was 25+ and 18+ and they got bounced in round 1. This year the 11th-ranked Hoyas are at just past 21. So even if they end up a 3- or 4-seed, beware of some serious upset potential.

Baylor is on course for a possible one seed, but their 23.83 efficiency split would be by far the lowest of any top seed in the past five years. In fact, only one two seed has had a lower split, and that was the 2010 Villanova team that got upset in the second round.

Team Efficiency ratings history and why it matters

Ill put up 2012 tourney team stats in separate articles tied to those teams.  This is a general explanation this guy gave of why it matters:

In the five years I’ve been tracking this, no NCAA tournament team with an efficiency split over 30 or more has lost in the first round. (Efficiency split is a team’s offensive efficiency minus its defensive efficiency.)

* Of the 26 teams who have entered the tournament over the past five years with an efficiency split of 30 or higher, 22 have made at least the Sweet 16, 17 have made at least the Elite Eight, 11 have made the Final Four, and four have won the title (with two others losing in the title game).

* On the flip side, of the 78 teams that have come into the tournament over the past five years with an efficiency split under 10, 71 of them lost their first game and only one has made it out of the second round. That was VCU, which somehow found its way into the Final Four with an 8.8 split. The next lowest to make it out of the first weekend was last year’s Butler team that made it to the championship game with a split of 15.

power of the efficiency split. (Note: It’s actually adjusted efficiency from KenPom.com.)

 For 2012, As of games played on Tuesday (JAN 10)  only four teams are at the 30+ level: Ohio State (34.37), Syracuse (32.34), Kentucky (31.16), and Wisconsin (30.48).

NC Strickland out for year torn ACL Jan 21

North Carolina junior Dexter Strickland will miss the rest of the season after tearing his right anterior cruciate ligament in Thursday’s win at Virginia Tech.

The 6-foot-3 guard had started every game for the eighth-ranked Tar Heels, averaging about eight points and shooting a team-best 57 percent while thriving in transition. He was the team’s top perimeter defender and doubled as the No. 2 ballhandler behind point guard Kendall Marshall.  He was also the fastest player on the team. 

Sophomore Reggie Bullock or freshman P.J. Hairstonare the most likely candidates to pick up minutes and are better perimeter shooters, though neither has Strickland’s defense, ballhandling or speed in the open court.

• Sophomore guard Reggie Bullock will probably move up to the starting shooting guard slot, but he tends to look for his outside shot more than Strickland, who usually earned most of his 7.5 points per game in transition (which was why he was shooting a team-high 57 percent from the floor). Bullock’s defense has steadily improved this season, but it will have to be more of a focus with Strickland out.
• If Bullock moves into the starting five, the onus will be on freshman P.J. Hairston to return to his sparky ways off the bench. After some big games early, the sharpshooter has made only 4 of 21 shots in his past four games.

It also could force freshman point guard Stilman White into a bigger role behind Marshall. The 6-footer is averaging less than a point in about four minutes per game.  More than likely, though, Marshall, who is averaging a team-high 31.2 minutes, will need play more in tight games — something he got used to once he became the starter last season. Which mean he will have to continue to stay healthy, and out of foul trouble.

Kansas State Suspension (Henriquez) Jan 19

 Kansas State coach Frank Martin has suspended junior forward Jordan Henriquezindefinitely for conduct detrimental to the team.

Martin said Thursday that he and Henriquez will meet sometime next week and discuss his status. In the meantime, Henriquez will not practice with the Wildcats (13-4, 2-3 Big 12).

The 6-foot-11 Henriquez had two points and two rebounds in 8 minutes in Kansas State’s 84-80 victory over Texas on Wednesday night.

Henriquez has played in all 17 games this season, starting six, and is averaging 7.1 points and 5.1 rebounds in 18.9 minutes.

Duke

Bilas December:

The Blue Devils are the only legitimate challenger to North Carolina in the ACC. Duke has played the toughest overall schedule in the country to this point, and has played very well against it. Duke can score, and has very good spot-up shooters on the perimeter and a capable threat in the post with Mason Plumlee.

To be a champion, though, this team has to improve its overall defense. Right now, Duke is not an elite defensive team and has been unable to generate offense from its defense. To date, Duke has been a team that has been forced to generate half-court offense rather than transition baskets. While the Blue Devils don’t pressure the ball as well as in seasons past, they can still play really good team defense and can really rebound. Duke has to do a better job of staying in front of the ball and limiting opponents to one contested shot per possession.

In addition, very few Blue Devils players can create their own shot or drive the lane. And, Duke has to communicate and execute better in late-game situations. This is a very capable team, but it cannot rely upon super athleticism or talent this season.

Syracuse

Bilas December:

I really liked Syracuse’s chances to reach the Final Four before the season began and have seen little to dissuade me from that notion. The Orange have depth, size and good guard play, and do a really good job defending. Coach Jim Boeheim believes his team is not quite there yet, but acknowledges that this team will have a real chance.

When I watch Syracuse play, it is clear that its defense is really solid. The Orange are in the top five in the nation in steals percentage and blocks percentage, and those numbers are magnified by the fact that opponents are forced into so many bad and questionable shots.

The key issues for Syracuse are decisions and ball movement. The Orange are at their best in transition and can blow you away with how quickly they convert from defense to offense. That makes them difficult to press, because you don’t want your press to create transition opportunities for them. Syracuse needs to do a better job of executing in half-court sets and not settling for jump shots — right now, Syracuse is not spending nearly enough time at the free throw line.

The key players are Brandon Triche and Dion Waiters. Triche needs to realize that he can be, and perhaps should be, the Orange’s best player; Waiters has to assert himself consistently as a star performer. If those two can “take over” in the team context, look out.

Belmont

Bilas January:  This team is good, and has been there before. Just making the tournament will not be as big of a deal to this team. Belmont wants to win a game, and this team has a legitimate shot to pull it off. Rick Byrd is an outstanding coach who gets his teams to run, and to play efficiently on the offensive end while keeping opponents off balance on the defensive side of the floor. Belmont has lost six games, but five of those losses were on the road to good teams. The efficiency ratings for Belmont’s regular players is very impressive. This team does not make mistakes; you have to beat them.

San Diego State

Bilas The Aztecs don’t make free throws at a high rate, which could bite them in the NCAA tournament, and they are not a great offensive team, but they guard you and force tough shots. With a healthyXavier Thames running the point, San Diego State can beat people in March. However, this team is not as good as last year’s Kawhi Leonard-led Aztec team.January:

Feb 25th Bilas: Sooner or later, a lack of scoring will catch up with you. Steve Fisher’s team was beaten at Air Force, but wins against five Sagarin top-50 teams will serve the Aztecs’ cause well in the committee room.

Harvard

Bilas January: Harvard runs a very effective motion offense and has quality players at every position. As far as Ivy League clubs, this team may not be quite as good as Cornell was two years ago, but this is a team capable of winning one or two games in the tournament. Keith Wright is a terrific interior big and Kyle Casey is one of the more versatile players in the country. Harvard is balanced, unselfish and talented.

Cincinnati

Watched this team several times. I want to like them this year. Clearly their record will make this clear. Their guards are gunners, but they are very solid with the ball and generally make good decisions. Their forwards are extremely athletic and plenty of them. Cronin has inside out forwards, outside only, and shoot and go get it. Plenty of options. Down low they are huge. Gates and kid from Africa are gernourmous.

If they are focused and trying hard.. they will be a very very hard team to beat and could seriously beat down others. They do rely on the 3 alot, though… watch them more.

January ESPN: Cincinnati’s offense is fairly simple — some dribble weave, some dribble drive rubs off cuts, some two-man game isolated ball screens — but the spacing is good and the team makes the extra pass. While the Bearcats struggle on offense with Justin Jackson (starting due to injury) or Cheikh Mbodj (back from injury) at the 4, they rebound better and defend better when they are big. On the other hand, Parker changes the team and I would expectGe’Lawn Guyn to make the Bearcats even better when he returns. Cincinnati will likely struggle with West Virginia, as not one of its guards can handle Kevin Jones. On the other hand, its four-guard attack and ocassionally deliberate pace may give the Bearcats a shooter’s chance against Syracuse on Monday.

Vs UConn: Since they went to a 4 guard lineup, they have dominated turnover ratios.  I looked back at their last 11 games since the suspensions. Bottom line is that they usually score somewhere around 130-135 in a normal game. If they are cold shooting, its less but they always stay competitive with their defense. They dont seem to push the ball much either in this game. Their games always seem a little like scrap heaps but they always seem to be right there. If they are hot from three, it opens their driving lanes and they can go on runs. Cinci likes a fight.. not literally!!!… and even their coach said.. we are best when we have our backs up against the wall.