19-3 with a resounding win over North Carolina at the Dean Dome. That’s good enough already to ensure an NCAA bid, but the Rebels could definitely throw a kink or two in the plans of top seeded teams. Mike Moser is an absolute beast, averaging a double-double per game (14.2 points and 11.7 rebounds, respectively), and has to be contained for opposing teams to have any chance against UNLV. If you’re a fan of the assist to turnover ratio, you’ll really like the Rebels, as they average 4.2 more assists than turnovers each game.
Wardo note: As always, Vegas money usually weighs down the line on this team, but this year, they are damn good.
This might be Steve Fisher’s best coaching job yet. The Aztecs don’t have a superstar player. Their overall stats aren’t eye-popping. However, they’re deep, they’re balanced, they play incredibly hard, they’re confident and they win. When your only two losses are to Baylor and Creighton, that’s nothing to be ashamed about. Four players average over 10 points a game for the Aztecs, but my favorite to watch is Jamaal Franklin, a 6-5 guard who is second on the team in scoring (15.2 points per game) and leads the team in rebounds (6.8 boards a game). SDSU is just a lot of fun to watch. They have mischief written all over them.
Wardo note: They wont be as much value this year as they were last year (not as off the radar).
Gregg Marshall is one heck of a basketball coach. First, he goes to Winthrop, who’d never been to the NCAA tournament and promptly takes them seven times in nine years. Now, fresh off of winning the NIT last year, Marshall has the Shockers firmly in NCAA contention, thanks in part to a great start in conference play and a solid 19 point win over UNLV as a resume-builder. Wichita is tough because they have a great inside-outside presence. Inside, Garrett Stutz is a force, leading the team in points (12.9/game) and rebounds (7.6/game), while Joe Ragland, Toure Murray and David Kyles anchor the outside beautifully. Three solid guards spells lots of trouble for opposing teams in the Big Dance. Marshall plays a deep bench and coaches a team that shoots well and doesn’t beat themselves on the court.
The Bluejays have relied heavily on Doug McDermott, but he’s carried the weight in impressive style, proving he is one of the top forwards in the country. McDermott averages 23.5 points and 8.5 rebounds a game, all while keeping out of foul trouble, which only frustrates teams more as everyone knows the target is on his back. However, keep your eye on Grant Gibbs. He averages close to 6 assists a game and is a key catalyst in the Creighton attack. A quick stat: Creighton is 3-0 this year against the Big Ten.
They stand alone as the only undefeated team in Division I, but don’t let anyone fool you, the Racers are legit. Two intangibles stand out with Murray State. First, you have to like a team who has crashed the dance in recent times, which the Racers did two short seasons ago (they were a basket away from ending Butler’s run much earlier). Second, come March, you have to like teams with a solid point guard, and the Racers have that in junior Isaiah Canaan. Given also that Murray State has quality depth in terms of good shooters, and they’re going to be a tough out, no matter the seeding.
I tried to be impressed with Virginia, and they did win, but NC State really got my attention in the game. Richard Howell had 18 rebounds, 9 of them offensive, before he fouled out. Virginia could not box him out. Im not sure if this was due to missing their starting center, (who should be back in time for the tourney, if not the end of the ACC tourney), or because Howell was that good or what. Again, Virginia won the game, and NCState was favored, so this was a full on Virginia win in Vegas, but NC State took it to them.
Virginia has some out of conference cred, having beat Michigan, LSU and Oregon. Interestingly, Michigan and Oregon are teams I could see seeding as matchups to Virginia in the big dance.
Virginia’s defense before this game was 2nd in the nation (50.2 points allowed/game).
This will also be a team that requires a good look at the UNDER bet.
If NC State plays a fast tempo team, they should do well.
I watched them against Baylor and thought we had a sure bet here. Watching them beat Baylor was like watching 5 birds chasing a cat away from their nesting area. Everywhere Baylor turned there was another Missouri player making a shot, rebound or steal (19 turnovers forced). They also drew fouls every time Baylor tried to get aggressive. This game looked like it could rewrite the Big 12. But reality hit Missouri after this game, as they blew their load to beat the Bears and had nothing left for Oklahoma State, especially late in the second half. Ok State finished this game with a 26-12 run, showing just how much had been taken out of the vaunted “4 guard whirlwind of death”. Denmon was only 4 for 16 shooting (although he did have 17 points). And Phil Pressey who leads the big 12 in assists, only had 2 for this game. They left a LOT on the floor in Waco.
Then yesterday, they won against Texas Tech, but this is not your daddy’s Texas Tech. This is a Texas Tech team that is 0 and 8, yes ZERO wins in the big 12 this season. Yes, Missouri won the game, and yes they won by 13, but they should have run away with this game. The oddsmakers had Missouri as a 24 point favorite in this game. (the over under was 141.5 and total came in at 113). Obviously the oddsmakers didnt realize how deflated Missouri was.
The next two weeks will tell us a lot about Missouri and whether they bounce back from this week. They have Texas next then Kansas, and on the 11th they play Baylor again, so there is plenty more opportunity for Missouri to convince me one way or the other.
One quick thought, if they have a tough game in Round 1, betting against them might be a good Round 2 ticket to carry home on the plane with us.
Wow. I can believe how unimpressed I am or was with UConn. They have tons of talented bigs, but they didnt lean on them in this game at all. They have a solid point guard in Napier, although I am not nearly as impressed with him as others. He is 6′ish and doesnt score a lot on his own. Lamb looks like he is out of position at times and struggled to get looks in this game. He also is not carrying himself like a captain or a player that he should or needs to be. They also have one of their main guards out (Boatright) who will be cleared to play January 29th.
All in all, this team is a relative paper lion right now. Let’s see them in March with Boatright in and somebody stepping up as a leader. This team looked like a team desperately in need of Kemba Walker who was watching the game from the stands.
