South Florida

South Florida coach Stan Heath coached the Bulls to their 11th Big East win, leading them over Cincinnati on Sunday. The Bulls have won five of six games, holding opponents to fewer than 52 points each time. Their loss was to Syracuse, a game in which the Orange scored just 56.

“We grind it out,” Heath said Sunday. “We’re not great offensively but we guard.”

2/29 ESPN Whos coming in hot.. 10. South Florida: Stan Heath’s team has won five of its past six games and has held its past six opponents to 56 points or less. There aren’t many head-turning wins on South Florida’s résumé. Still, with an 11-5 Big East record, the Bulls have a good chance to make the NCAA tournament. Who would’ve guessed that a month ago?

Purdue

Purdue 75, No. 13 Michigan 61: When Purdue guard Ryne Smithwas asked what he thought about guard Kelsey Barlow’s dismissal from the team last week, he was direct, even curt: “Addition by subtraction,” Smith said. Apparently he was right. Whatever the reason, Purdue played its best game of the season Saturday at the most important time, containing Michigan’s outside shooters and slowly stretching a second-half lead thanks to the heady play of point guard Lewis Jackson, forward Robbie Hummel and, most importantly, guard Terone Johnson, who scored a career-high 22 points and made a handful of key plays down the stretch, including two big and-1 finishes around the rim. Purdue is an unconventional team with no true post presence; the Boilermakers rely on Hummel’s outside-in versatility and an extended, guard-oriented style. This makes them a great matchup for Michigan, and, in their own way, a dangerous team.

In any case, Purdue can now feel entirely safe about its at-large NCAA tournament chances. Beating Michigan at home — the Wolverines’ first home loss of the season — is most definitely a signature victory. And it couldn’t have come at a better time.

Old Dominion

Old Dominion Monarchs (19-12, 13-5, RPI: 115, BPI: 102, KenPom.com: 84)
Kill skills: This might be the most interesting team of the bunch. The Monarchs are yet another defense-first team, but their disparity is staggering, ranking 21st in the nation in defensive efficiency, but 193rd in offensive efficiency. ODU forces turnovers on 23.4 percent of possessions (33rd), holds opponents to offensive rebounds on just 29.3 percent of possessions (58th) and steals the ball 13.6 percent of the time (sixth). But that’s offset by an offense that is putrid from the arc (31.6 percent, 288th), gives the ball right back (21.0 turnover percentage, 213th) and hits only 62.1 percent of its free throws. The Monarchs’ saving grace? They grab 39 percent of available offensive boards, ranking 11th in the nation. Those numbers help explain how they kept things close in single-digit losses to Kentucky and Missouri, and it will be fascinating to see how our model interprets all that conflicting data.

George Mason

Feb 26 ESPN:

George Mason Patriots (23-8, 14-4, RPI: 84, BPI: 103, KenPom.com: 109)
Kill skills: The Patriots have a new coach in Paul Hewitt, but their upset chances still start on defense. They do a solid job denying the 3-pointer, allowing only 26.7 percent of opponents’ points to come from beyond the arc. GMU also blocks shots on 12.5 percent of possessions (42nd in the country). But they don’t project as nearly an effective Giant Killer as the typical Jim Larranaga team did. On offense, they turn it over like crazy, struggle from downtown and don’t crash the offensive boards particularly well. Chances are our model will end up deciding that even if Mason finds its way into the tourney, the team’s stay will be short-lived.

Drexel

Feb 26 ESPN Article: Kill skills: Drexel is super-stingy on defense, minimizing opponents’ possessions in two key areas. The Dragons allow offensive rebounds on just 26 percent of possessions per KenPom.com (sixth in the country) and hold teams to just 28.2 percent 3-point shooting (seventh), which means only 23.1 percent of foes’ points come from beyond the arc. Though the Dragons play at a slow pace and don’t force many turnovers, they add accurate 3-point shooting to the mix on offense (38.3 percent), which we like. If they were to shoot 3s more often (only 32 percent of their total attempts), we’d like them even more. But even without the model’s full analysis, Drexel looks like a dangerous first-round foe.

Akron

Stuart Akron

Got off to a slow start against Oral Roberts. Zeke Marshall needs to be on the floor but he did not do much against ORU. He is big but not much of a presence on offense. Abreu is a very small point guard and it shows. He gets into some bad places on the floor. They do not shoot the ball well. They play OK defense but they do not create a lot of easy baskets. They are a very athletic team but not big and not good 3 point shooters. They play hard so they may cover.

Oral Roberts

Stuart.. Vs Akron..

Oral Roberts

They have some skilled players – Morrison, Bell-Holter and Niles. Three seniors so assuming they get in, I like them to keep it close. They are well coached by the Sutton brothers. They lack a point guard to get them easy baskets. I do not think they will be a very high seed because their strength of schedule is weak. Nothing fancy on offense or defense. Pretty straight forward. I like Cinderella teams that can shoot the 3. This is not one of them. Niles and Morrison can shoot the 3 but they do not have a scheme that drives them to shoot the 3.

Kirk Vs Akron:

This is one of those mid-major teams you watch and they are good because they are a good team. They play good defense and good offense and are well coached. That said, they dont have anything that pops out when you watch them. No awesome player, no 3 pt gunners, no stud bigs. Just a pretty good team. So.. throw them into the Big 10 and they are Penn State or maybe more like Texas Tech. Nice team, but not enough great athletes to make a real difference. In a stretch they are Illinois or Texas AM. Mid-pack team.

Actual scouting report….main scorer is 6’6 F Morrison. He can create his own relatively open shot and is a little mismatch vs other mid-majors. Bg schools may be able to use length to slow him. He can shoot with fade so he will not be completely stopped…. They also have another very solid small forward in … . Their guard play is solid. Niles is a good guard.. scores when needed and will create.

They play good defense… Sutton style… and they have a decent bench…

Bottom line… I have to watch them again.. but I do like them. I do think they could keep a game close and maybe even win.. but my eyes tell me they lose by 7 to 10.

UNLV

“I told the team that for about 35 of the 40 minutes we were sensational,” UNLV coach Dave Rice said. “We had about 5 minutes where our effort and execution lacked. But overall, I knew that today we would play well. We are always confident going into games. We were locked into what we were trying to do.”

2/29 ESPN Who is coming in cold UNLV: The Runnin’ Rebels, who defeated North Carolina back in November, may have ruined their chance to win the Mountain West Conference outright, thanks to a pair of ugly losses to Wyoming and TCU. UNLV, which also lost to New Mexico, is in a three-way tie for first place and can clinch at least a share of the conference crown by defeating Colorado State and Wyoming in its last two games.

2/25 vs Air Force… This team has such good guard play. Bellfield never turns the ball over and leads the league in assists. Moser is a starting guard on any team in the country and can really beat you off the dribble. Add in Marshall and a G-F Stanback and their solid. They are not a good foul shooting team (rank in the 200′s) especially their big guys (55,57,60%).. ugh…

 

Sat, Feb	Wyoming	L 68-66
Sat, Feb 11	vs #14 San Diego State	W 65-63
Tue, Feb 14	@ TCU	L 102-97 OT
Sat, Feb 18	@ New Mexico	L 65-45
Wed, Feb 22	vs Boise State	W 75-58
Sat, Feb 25	vs Air Force	W 68-58
Wed, Feb 29	@ Colorado State	L 66-59

But the announcers said.. they cant seem to get it going away from home. He said this BEFORE they went and lost to Colorado State.

Oral Roberts

Jan 25 Bilas: It is almost too bad that ORU didn’t play one of the higher-profile mid-majors in BracketBusters, because I am not sure that enough people understand just how good this team is and just how good the win against Akron is. Oral Roberts is an experienced team and good enough to win a game in the NCAA tournament. The BPI has ORU in the 70s, but my eyes tell me different.

Marquette

Feb 25 Jay Bilas:

Marquette Golden Eagles

The Golden Eagles score 35 points per game in the paint, ranking second in the Big East. And the relentless attack in the lane gets Marquette to the line, with 23 percent of its points coming off free throws. Marquette is a second-half team that keeps the pressure on and never seems to get tired. Buzz Williams’ team shoots 52 percent in transition in first halves and 64 percent in transition in second halves, scoring 1.25 points per possession in the open floor.

2/29 ESPN - Marquette: The Golden Eagles have won 12 of their past 13 games and went 5-1 in February despite playing without injured forward Davante Gardner (knee). Jae Crowder and Darius Johnson-Odom could both be first-team All-Big East selections, and head coach Buzz Williams nearly incited a riot when he did his best Fred Astaire impression and danced on West Virginia’s court. Maybe he was just practicing for March. 

Kirk comment.. here who they beat in those 12.. SJU,PITT,LOU,PROV,USF,VILL,HALL, DEP, CIN, CONN, RUTG, WVU – Very unimpressive list.

2/29 Kirk Vs Cinci.. first off, they look TINY compared to CInci. Bob Knight said regardless, the entire key to their team is error free execution of their break and offensive conversion is the key to their team. He also said that they are the best team he has seen with help defense.  They also like to run run run and they are good at it. Cincinnati controlled the boards, though, on offense and defense. Final thought is that this team plays well together, they pass the ball well as a team, and they but a ton. If they face a zone team with no depth, look out. They get the ball inside on drives and passes.  I want to like them, but I just dont. They are not big and their guards are not as good as in the past.

Georgetown at Marquette (2 ET, ESPN3): Georgetown humbled Notre Dame and beat down Villanova in its final two home games. The Hoyas can draw even with Marquette in second place with a win in Milwaukee. The Golden Eagles should be good to go at home, but which squad will show? Marquette looked like an Elite Eight team in last week’s second-half comeback at West Virginia. But its performance at Cincinnati on Wednesday was more worthy of a first-round exit. Regardless, this could be a preview of a Big East tourney semifinal. 

3/4 Marquette lost F Gardner for all of February. Still did awesome but he is back and that is another boost for this team.

Texas

FEb 25th Article on Most Inconsistent Teams

Texas Longhorns
The Longhorns are not found on the chart because they are actually one of the more consistent teams among those in their class, with a variation of 12.9. They are also ranked much higher in BPI (25th) than RPI (54th) or the polls (did not receive a vote in either one) and are on the NCAA tournament bubble according to ESPN Bracketologist Joe Lunardi.

It seems counterintuitive for Texas to be considered a consistent team when it is a mediocre 17-11, including a subpar 7-8 in the Big 12. However, a consistent team that is playing a difficult schedule — Texas has played the fourth-most difficult schedule overall — can have a mediocre record, getting consistently close to the really good teams without actually winning. In contrast, Murray State is a consistent team (variation of 13.3) that is playing an easy schedule, so it is sitting at 23-1.

The Longhorns are 0-6 against teams ranked at least 10 spots better — losing four of those by five points or fewer — 3-2 against teams within 10 spots of them, and 14-3 against teams ranked 10 or more spots below them (no losses outside the top 100). Overall, 14 of their 17 wins have come by double digits, while only three of their 11 losses have come by more than two possessions.

Rick Barnes’ team has beaten lesser competition soundly, played teams of similar caliber evenly and competed with but lost to every opponent with a significantly better rating. This leads to the lack of a signature win on the résumé, but it is a mark of a team that can consistently beat No. 9 or No. 10 seeds. Texas is in that unusual position of being a second-tier team, one that looks as if it can win a game in the tournament but not be inconsistent enough to be a Cinderella. Whether the tournament committee likes that kind of team come Selection Sunday remains to be seen.

Feb 25 Bilas: Texas just could not get stops against Oklahoma State and allowed Keiton Page to score 40 points and get to the free throw line 20 times. Texas is another team that looks great on paper, but your eyes tell you different. On the road and at neutral sites, Texas plays young. But wins against K-State, Iowa State and Temple will be enough to get Texas into the NCAA field.

Notre Dame

Feb 25 ESPN about most inconsistent teams

Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Seemingly everyone is high on the Irish these days, as they have won nine straight games — six of those against BPI top-50 opponents, including Wednesday’s destruction of West Virginia — to make people forget about their disappointing start to the season. Despite being ranked 18th in the coaches poll, they are just 49th in BPI. Taking into account automatic bids from low conferences, this ranking would put Notre Dame close to the bubble if you believe, as we do, that this is the best representation of a team’s overall merit.

How is this possible for a team with so many quality wins? The key is to look beyond the recent great wins and take a bigger-picture look at the Irish’s performance during the entire season:

• They’ve lost to three opponents ranked outside the top 100 (Georgia, Maryland and Rutgers).
• Their other five losses came against good competition, but the average margin of defeat was 18 ppg (all of them by double digits).
• They have had six games in which their Game BPI was below 40, tied for the most among teams ranked in the top 75.

Couple the last fact with the knowledge that they’ve also had 14 games with a BPI of 80-plus, and you have the story of Notre Dame’s season. It has been about as inconsistent as it gets for a legitimate NCAA tournament team.

WVU falls to undermanned Marquette

West Virginia had a 42-29 rebounding advantage for the game but got burned on transition defense and gave up numerous layups in the second half.

West Virginia’s Bob Huggins has hit a low point with his freshman-laden team.

A lack of defense and a lack of running down loose balls and passing to open teammates have the coach in a funk after the Mountaineers blew a 15-point lead in the second half and lost to No. 10 Marquette 61-60 Friday night.

It marked the second time this week that West Virginia (17-12, 7-9 Big East) fell apart after halftime. No. 20 Notre Dame outscored West Virginia 41-16 in the second half in a lopsided win on Wednesday.

“We are not consistent in our effort,” Huggins said. “We are not consistent on our daily approach to what is supposed to happen.”

West Virginia (17-12, 7-9) has lost four of five and may need to win its final two regular-season games to have any chance at a bid to its fifth straight NCAA tournament.

Marquette over WVU over Conn and general notes

No. 10 Marquette came from 15 points down in the second half to beat West Virginia 61-60 Friday night, even with Darius Johnson-Odom the team’s leading scorer, team assists leader Junior Cadougan, and Vander Blue all benched in the first half for breaking team rules.

Johnson-Odom and Jae Crowder, who led Marquette with 26 points, eventually keyed a 24-8 run that helped the Golden Eagles overtake the Mountaineers.

With both Chris Otule and Davante Gardner on the sideline, the Golden Eagles lack size.  But Marquette continues to roll toward what might be a top-four seed and double bye in the Big East tournament, in part because what it lacks in height it makes up for in quickness.

“Their speed and strength almost blew our doors off,” acting Connecticut head coach George Blaney said after Marquette defeated his Huskies 79-64 on Feb. 18. “We had worked on it for two days, were really solid about picking up the ball early and getting back, but their bigs continued to beat our guys down the court.”

Marquette has adjusted to its depleted roster as seamlessly as any team in the country. In part, that’s because the guys who are left are both talented and experienced. Jae Crowder and Darius Johnson-Odom are both seniors who don’t get much attention outside of the state of Wisconsin, but they have raised their level of play in their teammates’ absence.

Marquette did a lot of damage at the free-throw line against Connecticut, going 21-of-26 from the stripe. That dwarfed UConn’s production, as the Huskies finished 12-of-21.

Three-pointers were one of the keys to victory for Marquette on Saturday, particularly in the first half. The Golden Eagles knocked down seven long-range shots on their way to taking a 43-29 lead at the break. UConn, meanwhile, did not make a 3-pointer during the first 20 minutes.

Long Beach State at Creighton notes and articles

Dont let the final score/result fool you if you didnt watch.  I come away from this game liking Long Beach State for betting value.  Creighton looked good too.  Both teams played fast tempo.  The word that came to mind several times during the game, and this was before the announcers said it (which they said it a few times too) was “CONFIDENCE”.  Both teams were confident in their shooting AND their defense.  There was very little hesitation on either side, and even when one team went on a run (whether it was LBS taking a pretty big lead or Creighton catching up) there was never really a loss of confidence, and therefore there was not really a loss of momentum for either team in this game. 

Both teams should enter the tournament with a good confidence, which could surprise a team that underestimates them and/or overwhelm a young team that might be nervous in the tourney. 

Doug McDermott poured in 36 points against Long Beach State, his second highest output of the season. That included going eight of eight from the field and four of four at the free throw line while scoring 20 points in the second half.

While everyone in the building thought Creighton would go to McDermott for the potential game-winning shot, Young showed future opponents he wasn’t afraid to put the game on his shoulders.

 Long Beach State really looked like the better team and held the lead until that last minute game winning shot from the 6 minute mark in the FIRST HALF. 

Casper Ware scored 21 points and T.J. Robinson 20 for the 49ers (19-7), whose 12-game winning streak was snapped. Robinson lost the ball out of bounds with 28 seconds remaining, giving Creighton possession for the last shot.

ESPN’s Doug Gottlieb opined that The Beach deserves an NCAA Tournament bid despite the loss to Creighton, saying the 49ers did everything the selection committee could ask while facing the nation’s toughest nonconference schedule. They can make it a moot point by winning the Big West tournament and earning an automatic bid, but after falling in the championship game of the conference tournament each of the past two years, the 49ers wouldn’t mind having an at-large bid to serve as their safety net.

Kentucky article last paragraph has a couple thoughts on MSU

The other team that resided at the top of most preseason rankings was Kentucky.Despite having a team consisting almost solely of freshmen and sophomores, Kentucky has succeeded expectations. If any team is to go down in history as having a season for the ages, it will be the Wildcats.

However, Kentucky’s playing group is indicative of a new status quo, where freshmen cannot only be the most talented players on the court, but tenacious, mature leaders. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist embodies those traits for Kentucky.

The other super freshman that leads the Wildcats is Anthony Davis, who barring injury or collapse, will be the first pick in an NBA draft many observers consider extraordinarily deep.

College basketball has seen its fair share of extraordinary shot blockers. Alonzo Mourning, Hasheem Thabeet, Emeka Okafor, and David Robinson come to mind. But Davis single-handedly takes away the lane in a way that I can’t ever remember seeing. For the season, Davis blocks 15.1% of opposing teams’ two-pointers and contests or effects many others. His once maligned offensive game has improved over the course of the season, but he’s not a back-to-the-basket post player. Davis gets his points regardless, 13.9 per game this season on a little more than 8 shot attempts per contest.

As a team, Kentucky is more known for defense than offense, but its ability to score may actually be more impressive. According to Ken Pomeroy’s statistics, Kentucky scores approximately 1.21 points per possession (the national average typically hovers around 1), while giving up 0.86 per trip. In conference play, Kentucky is only slightly less stellar, scoring 1.19 PPP while allowing 0.92. Outscoring opponents in conference play by over a quarter-point per possession after 12 league games is typically reserved for top mid-majors playing a bunch of sub-200 RPI teams in their respective conferences. As a comparison, Ohio State has the second best efficiency margin in a major conference this season at +0.19 points per possession.

Here is a list of the in-conference efficiency margins of the national champions since 2003, the first year in which possession-based game data is available. When you consider that there are over 1,000 possessions in a 16-game conference season, the decimals below can add up to substantial point differentials.

Kentucky is currently at +0.27. In other words, the Wildcats are more dominant in conference play than any of the last nine national champions.

If John Calipari’s club can go undefeated in the SEC, it will mark the first time that a team has gone undefeated in a BCS league since Kansas in 2003. Skeptics will point to the fact the SEC does not have a litany of good teams, and they would be right. Florida and Vanderbilt are the only teams in the conference likely to be above an 8-seed on Selection Sunday. Mississippi State has talent to keep up with Kentucky, but often can’t get out of its own way, as evidenced by a weekend loss at Auburn. Nonetheless, teams in sub-par major conferences like recent editions of the Pac-10/12 haven’t put up records or numbers anywhere close to Kentucky’s.

As if Kentucky needed any more signs of encouragement, freshman point guard Marquis Teague has started to play at a higher level. Teague was just as highly regarded coming out of high school as Davis and Kidd-Gilchrist, but the Indianapolis native has struggled at times with turnovers and his shot. He tends to run the offense now as opposed to creating for himself.

At this point in the season, it makes sense to call Kentucky a near-prohibitive favorite for the national championship. Syracuse, who has one loss like Kentucky, struggles on the defensive glass to an alarming degree. Missouri is at a decided size disadvantage against the bigger teams, and has shown some defensive warts in conference play. Duke is also an average defensive team. It’s tough to imagine Kansas running through six games without Tyshawn Taylor’s turnover and free throw woes featuring prominently. Ohio State struggles with three-point shooting, which becomes especially key if teams can take away Jared Sullinger inside. North Carolina’s problems have been documented above.

Michigan State may just be the second best team in the country right now. Draymond Green is not the most talented player, but he’s unquestionably the best leader and best teammate. If a big play or big stop has to be made for the Spartans, the senior Green will probably be the one to make it. As a team, the only weakness Michigan State has is that it perhaps turns over the ball a little more than normal. The Spartans wouldn’t have as much talent on the floor if they played Kentucky in a tournament situation, but they would certainly be capable of keeping up. I don’t know if that can be said about some of the other possible top four seeds in the NCAA tournament.

Drinking and Betting

 A post from the MM in LV Facebook page.  If we do PH, this doesnt have anything to do with us, but if we go to Cosmo, we should know this:

One more that I already posted on ou Yrahoo Group is that Cantor Gaming has taken over a bunch of sports books since MM2011. They are a 3rd party and don’t offer drink tickets. This includes M Resort, Hard Rock, Tropicana, Cosmopolitan, Venetian & Palazzo. Plaza may also be added to that list by mid-March as well. Unlike Leroys or Cal-Neva, you can’t take a ticket puchased at one Cantor book and cash it at one at a different property, at least not the last time in inquired.

Cosmo viewing party

DATE / TIME

Mar 15 – Mar 18, 2012
8:00 AM

LOCATION

Brera

 

Watch the college basketball championships in unrivaled luxury. At this unique sports experience you will enjoy a premium selection of craft beers and cocktails from around the world as you watch the games on multiple HD screens amidst a stylish, vibrant setting. You will also be able to place your sports bets a satellite stations during the games.

To elevate your sports watching experience, purchase a wristband, which includes cocktails throughout the day, for only $50. Wristbands can be purchased in advance here or at Brera, located on Level 3, March 15-18, starting at 8AM. This cocktail & sports combination puts an original spin on the typical open bar, allowing fans to visit premium bars located in Brera for complimentary craft beers and spirits from opening tip until the day’s final buzzer. Modern twists on classic stadium foods will also available for an additional cost.

Must be 21 years or older. Open bar wristband is not required for entry. Management reserves all rights. Subject to change without notice.

Iona vs Nevada

Iona seems to have grown more in sync and more into a TEAM than just a one or two players that I thought they were in a game I watched earlier this season.  Scoring was spread around, with balanced scoring from Jones (18), Michael Glover (15), Scott Machado and Sean Armand (13 apiece) and a boost from Randy Dezouvre, who came off the bench to score 17 points.

Machado is very unselfish, with 15 assists (he leads the nation in assists per game) and 8 of his 13 points were free throws (he hit 8 of 8).

Iona presses so much that their defense suffers, as they let a lot of field goals in and they do not get many defensive boards.  They dont contest shots, but they score. 

Machado with the dish, Glover inside and Momo from anywhere, they are 54.7% inside the arc, 6th in the nation.  They also hit over 38% from 3-land and are 26th in offensive TO% in the country.  Beat Maryland, St Joes, and almost took out Purdue (neutral court).  Fast tempo, good experience, including Momo’s time in AZ.

OSU Michigan Notes

That said, Michigan won the game on the defensive end, where it held the Buckeyes to .91 points per trip, and in some part it has the Buckeyes to thank. Shooting guard William Bufordstruggled yet again, going 3-of-12 and continuing his senior slump. Credit the Wolverines for forcing the Bucks into perimeter jump shots, but also blame Ohio State, which often settled for those jumpers without first attempting to get Sully into an iso situation on the low block. When Sullinger did touch the ball, the Buckeyes usually got a score. They figured this out eventually, which is what got them back into the game in the second half. But it was too little, too late. You wouldn’t think you’d need to “figure out” that you should probably give the ball to Sullinger because, you know, he’s really good.

Look, Ohio State remains a very good defensive team. After all, holding Michigan to 56 points on its own floor is no easy task. But the Buckeyes’ offense, particularly its perimeter shooting (or lack thereof), looks like a serious liability. It lurched helplessly against Michigan State’s defense last Saturday, and it played right into Michigan’s hands tonight. As a result, OSU allowed its sworn rival to tie it in the league standings, a game behind MSU in the loss column. If the Buckeyes can’t fix these problems, their March ceiling — once as limitless as any team’s in the country — will suffer accordingly.

Feb 25th Bilas: The Bilas Index has been favoring Michigan over every other metric (BPI No. 30) because my eyes tell me that the Wolverines are better than their numbers indicate. Going into the Ohio State game, Michigan had shot 50 percent or better in two straight games for the first time all season. And Michigan shot 56 percent in the second half against OSU in a game the officials allowed to be a wrestling match. Such a physical foul fest does not favor Michigan — the Wolverines were bumped and impeded on cuts, and Burke was bounced around — yet it won a street fight of a game by matching Ohio State’s physicality. Burke is the real thing. He was the star of the game with 17 points and some really big plays off the dribble.

Interesting on home court

Im not reaching here, but I find that the stats about the away differentials could be valuable in march.

Article ESPN Pomeroy: The team with the biggest differential between home and road scoring margin during this time is … drumroll please … Utah Valley! Iknow I could have given you a few hundred guesses before you came up with the Wolverines. But believe it or not, in 58 games they outscored opponents by 745 points at home and were outscored by 105 points on the road for an average home-court advantage of 7.33 points. UVU leads a top 10 that isn’t exactly a who’s who of teams playing in feared venues. Ranking the teams with the best home-court advantage. HSM is the total home scoring margin in number of games listed. RSM is the total road scoring margin in number of games listed. Avg. HCA is the average home-court advantage based on difference in home/road scoring margin per game.

Rank	Team	HSM	RSM	Games	Avg. HCA
1	Utah Valley	745	-105	58	7.328
2	Alabama	538	-341	60	7.325
3	Arkansas	384	-447	60	6.93
4	Denver	493	-617	82	6.77
5	Virginia Tech	255	-567	62	6.63
6	Ohio	513	-395	69	6.58
7	Marshall	433	-486	71	6.47
8	Indiana	495	-528	80	6.39
9	Hawaii	568	-733	103	6.32
10	Mississippi St.	576	-181	60	6.31
70	Kansas	1076	520	60	4.63
80	Duke	1171	481	76	4.54
116	Ohio State	658	-18	80	4.23
179	North Carolina	616	57	76	3.68
232	Kentucky	529	141	60	3.23

2/29 ESPN Interview with Creen. our program has finally bounced back this season. What’s the next step?

TC: Winning close games consistently, I think that’s big. We’ve had some really good road wins, double-figure road wins.

But every part of winning for this team is new this year. A winning streak, the nonconference record, beating ranked teams — highly ranked teams — this is the first time this group has done any of that. You never take it for granted but it won’t be the first time anymore, so that’s a big deal.

That’s why they’ve matured so much through this season. The biggest thing to understand is why we’re successful when we’re successful. When this team has really embraced the physicality of the game and played possession by possession, that’s when they’ve been their best.

Speaking of first times, this will be the first time this team heads to March with serious expectations for the Big Ten Tournament and a guaranteed NCAA tournament trip. How will they handle it?

TC: We’ll see. As coaches, we’ve been through it, so you do what you do and you do what you know works, tailoring it to your particular team. This group really dives into films. We’re a team that makes adjustments. We game plan for each game — how are we going to guard these screens? We don’t just do what we do. And they’ve been really good at that.

But the bigger we make it, the more overwhelming it gets. I don’t think anyone needs to do that. They already know how big it is. It’s our job to make sure they just go step by step.

West Virginia

Late January ESPN: The traditional complaint of coaches is that when their teams’ shots stop falling on offense, the players stop exerting effort on defense. West Virginia can’t use that excuse. The offense has been fine the past three weeks, and in fact the Mountaineers’ offensive rebounding has gone from great to unreal. During this 1-5 stretch WVU has hauled down an incredible 45 percent of its missed shots. Huggins has said his team is “this close” (thumb and forefinger held up) to being a good team, and stats like that bear him out.West Virginia isn’t going to win any perimeter shooting contests, to be sure, but the way the Mountaineers crash the offensive boards they don’t have to. Kevin Jones is still Kevin Jones. His team’s struggles may hurt his Big East Player of the Year chances, but the larger point is that he’s playing to the level of a Big East POY. The fact the Mountaineers have been in so many close games this month while allowing teams to score 1.17 points per possession is a backhanded tribute to this offense.

Feb 25th Bilas: The Mountaineers have lost five of their past seven, and the two wins were against Providence and Pittsburgh (in a game in which the Panthers could muster only 48 points). They have wins against Cincinnati, Marshall, Georgetown, Miami, Kansas State, Akron and Oral Roberts, all teams in the Bilas Index. West Virginia relies heavily upon Truck Bryant, Kevin Jones and Deniz Kilicli for scoring, and the Mountaineers’ defense has not been as strong as Bob Huggins expects. This team plays hard, but unless this group really improves defensively, its trip to the NCAA tournament may be a short one.

2/29 ESPN Who is coming in cold: 7. West Virginia: It’s tough not to feel sorry for Kevin Jones, who is having an All-American-caliber season but may not get to play in the NCAA tournament as a senior. The Mountaineers went 3-4 in February. With an 8-9 record in the Big East, West Virginia may need to beat South Florida on Saturday to earn a bid.

Purdue screwed by their thugs

Purdue kicked guard Kelsey Barlow off the team Friday and suspended swingman D.J. Byrd for a pivotal late-season game following an early-morning incident at a bar.

Barlow, a 6-5 guard from Indianapolis, started 22 of 26 games this season, averaging 24.3 minutes and 8 points. Byrd, a 6-5 player from Crawfordsville, Ind., had started four games, averaging 17.1 minutes and giving the Boilermakers a deep threat with 45 percent shooting from 3-point range.

Barlow was suspended just before last year’s NCAA tournament for conduct detrimental to the team.

NC State (choked at Duke)

They looked great in the first half and they were/are SOO Hungry.

Duke turned this hunger against them in the second half.  Duke just started strongly attacking the basket to get their big guys in foul trouble.  The Pack was so hungry to block Duke shots, it made it simple for Duke to draw fouls.  The NC State blocks were STRONG, which turned into fouls when Duke caught on to the fact that they could attack and get fouled. 

The Wolfpack played important stretches without key players who were stuck on the bench in foul trouble. Guard C.J. Williams managed just three points—he averages 11—while playing just 12 minutes before fouling out. Two key members of N.C. State’s front line—Richard Howell and Leslie—also fouled out.  “It made it difficult, and we lost our aggressiveness when we got so many guys in foul trouble,” Gottfried said. “That hurt. We’ve got to do a better job of defending without fouling.”

Any team good going to the basket will probably get Howell out.  He fouled out in the VA game, and I looked back and saw that he fouled out against UNC and Miami too.  He fouls anytime he plays someone who is aggresive to the basket.  Watch him in the UNC game coming up and I bet he will get in foul trouble. 

May be a good first half FOR and second half AGAINST this team if they play a team that is aggressive in the paint. 

 

UNLV after loss to TCU article

TCU (15-10, 5-4 Mountain West) trailed by 18 points with about 15 minutes left and had cut that deficit by only three points 5 minutes later.

UNLV (22-5, 6-3) had won 13 of 15, the losses by a combined four points. The Rebels were coming off a 65-63 win over No. 13 San Diego Stateto avenge a two-point road loss against the Aztecs last month.

Just four weeks ago against TCU in Las Vegas, the Runnin’ Rebels opened the game with an 18-2 run. They led by at least 13 points the rest of the way and won 101-78.

“One of the things we’re not very good at right now is keeping our foot on the pedal on both ends of the floor,” UNLV coach Dave Rice said. “For us to be a very good team, for us to advance to being a very good team we have to have almost that killer instinct where if we’re up six, get up eight; if we’re up 18, try to get up 22, 24.”

Mike Moser had 22 points and all five starters scored in double figures for UNLV. Anthony Marshall and Chace Stanback had 17 points, while Bellfield had 16 and Brice Massamba 12.

Given the way the Rebels have played on the road, that they squandered a late lead is no surprise.? But more times than not, UNLV had previously found a way to win tight games.? Not on Valentine’s Day.  In what has become a disturbing pattern – one that cannot be blamed on tough travel, poor officiating or having a number besides the name – the Rebels on the road are a mere shell of the team that they are in Las Vegas.  Consider that the Rebels blew a 10 point lead with under two minutes left in regulation at Santa Barbara before Chace Stanback’s prayer three pointer saved the day to force overtime in an eventual Rebel victory.  Also consider the difficulty in putting away far less talented teams such has Hawaii and Air Force.? There was also the overtime win at Boise, who only has one conference victory in MWC play.

And those are some of the highlights.

Nevermind the thrashing at the hands of Wichita State and Wisconsin.? The Rebels were whipped in nearly every phase of those games.  Then there were the close losses at San Diego State and Wyoming where the Rebels failed to execute down the stretch.

Rebels are simply collapsing after building large leads  The Rebels are two overtime wins over league bottom-feeders Air Force (65-63) and Boise State (77-72) from being winless on the road in league play. Overall, UNLV is now 6-4 away from the Thomas & Mack Center this season, with three of the victories coming in overtime.

UNLV coach Dave Rice has stressed  that his biggest concern for his squad was defensive rebounding.  The Horned Frogs finished with a huge 46-31 rebounding edge, including 19 offensive boards that led to a 19-8 advantage in second-chance points

The Rebels lost despite shooting 53 percent from the floor and a blistering 48 percent (12-for-25) from 3-point range. But in the end, poor rebounding and too-much Hank Thorns (career-high 32 points, eight 3-pointers) did them in.

Wardo note:  The matchup won’t be as important as where the game is played.  If they play far from LV, and/or against a team that has more of a “homer” presence in the stands (think vs Seton Hall in Pittsburgh or vs OSU in Louisville) they will probably underperform due to it being so much like a “road game”. 

Also, possible bet for in first half and against in second half?

Wichita State (Mow’s favorite team name) article highlights Feb 15

 the selection committee might not give them their due, and to this point, neither have the poll voters for college basketball. This team has a better record, against a better strength of schedule, than 13th-ranked San Diego State. They’ve also beaten 11th-ranked UNLV by 19 points, and then-15th ranked Creighton by 21 points — at Creighton. An average game for them this year results in a win by the score of 78-63, which means they’re scoring more points-per-game than the top two teams in the country.

they won the NIT tournament last year

When Joe Ragland can’t miss, and seven-footer Garrett Stutz is making All-American big men look silly, the announcers on CBS, TBS, TNT, and TruTV will be gushing about how surprising the whole thing is. Don’t make the same mistake they will, be prepared for what will happen.

The aforementioned Ragland has the third highest adjusted shooting percentage in the country, and he’s shooting 47% from range — and there’s much more Stutz than his seven-foot frame

Treasure Island Madness event

I agree we should stick with PH and see how it is at least Thurs, but if it is ridiculous we might want to head to TI on Fri, and also for next year we can see about rooms at TI to keep the show FREE. 

 

 

Thursday, March 15, 2012 at 9:00am until Saturday, March 17, 2012 at 6:00pm

• Sponsored by the @TIplayersclub, this event is FREE and open to the public! * Must be at least 21 years of age with valid ID * Doors open at 9:00 a.m. each day * Seating is first come, first serve * Cash bar & concessions (no outside food or drink allowed) … * Satellite betting stations * No smoking allowed Thursday, March 15 party will be in the newly renovated, non-smoking TI Theater featuring HD giant screen TV and over 1,000 deluxe, theater seats with reclining backs and cup holders. Friday, March 16 & Saturday, March 17 parties will be in the non-smoking TI Ballroom, conveniently located on the second floor, and featuring multiple large screen TVs as well as banquet table seating.

Virginia – Jan 29th

I have now watched Virginia twice and both times I came away hoping they lose some games moving forward. Why? Because I like them a lot. They are that team that when you watch them it looks like the sort of team that plays basketball the way it was meant to.  Bennett’s style of play is one of my favorites and this team plays like some of his best Washington State teams.

Notes: Inside, they have Scott who is top 10 forwards in the country. He will not be stopped in any game – period. He is that good. I did read that in the next game, vs UNC, he scored but had to take more shots to do it because of their dominate interior size. If a team is not very strong in the post, he will be a difference maker. Guards are a unique set of kids you all swear are from Indiana. They move the ball extremely well, know when to shoot, drive, or dish, and generally are just smart. They can, and do, hit the three well. One thing that they do do. is guard guard guard. They play excellent help defense. If you are a team that doesnt have a high assist ratio or rely too much on transition or rely on only 2 scorers, then this defense will most likely give you fits. They are #1 in the country in def points per possession, hold teams to 27% from 3, and only allow 50.1 ppgame.

I saw Wardo’s post, and I do agree that I also liked NC State in this game. They impressed me and could be a sleeper. Virginia could not stop their non-stop motor forward Howell so watch for that type of player, but Virginia also just lost their center. Another reason I like them. He is due back the first week of March which puts him on the bench but contributing come tournament time. This is Florida State 2011 Light. Great defense, meh offense that has to spend the last month getting EVERYONE to contribute due to key player lose, and then get a key piece back right at tournement time.

There are only a few matchups that I dont like this team against. Even then, I may not bet the game because I want them to win. They are just that likeable.

Feb 25 Bilas:Injured and coming off back-to-back, double-digit losses, Virginia was tied with Maryland at halftime and beat the Terps into submission in the second half. But Virginia finds a way because of Tony Bennett’s pack defense. Virginia does not score easily, but opposing teams cannot score easily, either.

2/29 ESPN who is coming in cold… 2. Virginia: The Cavaliers went 3-4 in February — and one of their wins was a two-point victory over downtrodden Virginia Tech. Tony Bennett is doing an excellent job of rebuilding Virginia’s program and may be deserving of ACC Coach of the Year honors. Still, let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Virginia has just one quality win this season, and that came back on Nov. 29 against Michigan.

MSU (over OSU and Defense in general) Feb 12

MSU plays very physical defense and they are very capable of double teaming (Sullinger).  This will give them a huge advantage over any team that relies on one or two guys to carry their load.  They got Sullinger to commit 2 OFFENSIVE fouls, as well as 10 turnovers.  The Bucks shot just 26% from the field.  MSU held them 29 points under their season scoring average.  They continually hold their opponents double digits below their season averages (Michigan 70 avg, vs MSU 60 in a win and 54 in a loss; Illinois 70 avg vs MSU 42 (in a loss and the worst scoring performance by both teams); Minn 81 avg, vs MSU 52; Pur 74 avg vs MSU 58). 

MSU is 16-7 against the spread (one of the losses was the first game vs UNC, and they did cover in the loss to Duke in the second game), with conf play at 9-3 ATS.  They failed to cover by an average of 4.75 pts in the 7 ATS losses.  They covered by an average of 9 points when they covered the spread.  With their defense so good, it is often overlooked that they do go through shooting slumps.  Their points per game average about 75, but they do have serious dry spells at times.

BJ STRATEGY CARD

Your	Dealer Upcard
Hand	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	A
8	H	H	H	H	H	H	H	H	H	H	H=HIT
9	H	D	D	D	D	H	H	H	H	H	D=DOUBLE
10	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	H	H	S=STAND
11	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	H	P=SPLIT
12	H	H	S	S	S	H	H	H	H	H	Ds=DOUBLE
13	S	S	S	S	S	H	H	H	H	H	IF ALLOWED
14	S	S	S	S	S	H	H	H	H	H	OR STAND
15	S	S	S	S	S	H	H	H	h/r	H	h/r=SURR
16	S	S	S	S	S	H	H	h/r	h/r	h/r	IF ALLOWED
17	S	S	S	S	S	S	S	S	S	S	OR HIT
A2	H	H	H	D	D	H	H	H	H	H	H/P=SPLIT
A3	H	H	H	D	D	H	H	H	H	H	IF ALLOWED
A4	H	H	D	D	D	H	H	H	H	H	TO DBL AFTER
A5	H	H	D	D	D	H	H	H	H	H	OR HIT
A6	H	D	D	D	D	H	H	H	H	H
A7	S	Ds	Ds	Ds	Ds	S	S	H	H	H
A8	S	S	S	S	S	S	S	S	S	S
2,2	H/P	H/P	P	P	P	P	H	H	H	H
3,3	H/P	H/P	P	P	P	P	H	H	H	H
4,4	H	H	H	H/P	H/P	H	H	H	H	H
5,5	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	H	H
6,6	H/P	P	P	P	P	H	H	H	H	H
7,7	P	P	P	P	P	P	H	H	H	H
8,8	P	P	P	P	P	P	P	P	P	P
9,9	P	P	P	P	P	S	P	P	S	S
10,10	S	S	S	S	S	S	S	S	S	S
A,A	P	P	P	P	P	P	P	P	P	P