Belmont over Gulf Coast

Wardo watch notes: Confident, good shooters, spread the floor when they are on O because they can hit from anywhere.  Open floor allows some passes that other teams might not make.  Not sure if they will be able to do this against a good man to man D.  Their D is smothering, cutting off passes and shots and they hammer the boards.   They didnt play that well in the first half, but turned it up a LOT in the second half, not sure if that is a trend for them.   

Stat that was interesting, in the first half, they were outrebounded 21 to 20, but in the second half with 7 minutes left they were better on the boards 17 to 5. 

This was a team that let us down last year when we expected them to cover vs Wisc.  They are deep again this year, as they were last year, 9 players in double digit minutes. 

Earlier in the season, they lost to Duke by only 1 point AT Duke, and lost to Memphis, then number ranked 10th.  They ended the season winning 14 in a row, so they are trending to Ws.

One scary thing, they are only 2 and 5 against the spread on games that they played that made the Vegas boards.  Of course one of the Wins ATS was when they covered against Duke. 

Hard to say they are horrible ATS when most of their games dont make the Vegas boards.  On the other hand, the last three games they did not cover and that trend could push the line closer for more betting value.

Belmont

Bilas January:  This team is good, and has been there before. Just making the tournament will not be as big of a deal to this team. Belmont wants to win a game, and this team has a legitimate shot to pull it off. Rick Byrd is an outstanding coach who gets his teams to run, and to play efficiently on the offensive end while keeping opponents off balance on the defensive side of the floor. Belmont has lost six games, but five of those losses were on the road to good teams. The efficiency ratings for Belmont’s regular players is very impressive. This team does not make mistakes; you have to beat them.

Belmont

Gotta agree with Wardo. REally fun team to watch because they are well coached and about 10 likeable basketball players. They led their league in offense and defense, lost by 9 to Tn, Vandi, and by 1 again to Tn. So they wont be overwhelmed by talent. This team likes to play inside out, has some decennnnt… bigs.. enough to defend “good” and keep you kinda honest on offense. Guards come in all colors and sizes. 5’11 to 6’5 and tehy all are smart and can hit the three point shot. They shoot a lot of threes, but they dont force it and its not their only offense. They get out in transition a lot.

My guess is that they will keep almost any game within 10 and could potentially slightly wear out another team in the second half. Also, with their 3 pt shooting, they did a good job of anticipating long rebounds and therefor had a lot of offensive rebounds. Primary weakness seemed to be athletic bigs. But to beat them you will need balance on offense, smart play, and a team that plays all 40 minutes.

3/5: Here are the top 10 potential Giant Killers, rated on a scale from 0 to 100 by our 2012 statistical model. These are the highest scores among all eligible teams, whether they are already in the NCAA tournament, working their way through conference championships or awaiting word about their bids. We will get to actual head-to-head odds once we know actual tournament seedings. Also, this is a lot more detailed than we’re going to go into for Giants. You probably know a thing or seven about Syracuse and Kentucky already. This is your chance to keep diving into what could make less famous teams Killer material — and to figure out which schools to root for in the week leading up to Selection Sunday.

 

Belmont Bruins (37.5): The Bruins are an offensive machine: They protect the ball, shoot effectively from anywhere and collect offensive rebounds, generating 116.4 points per 100 possessions — an offensive efficiency that ranks ninth in the entire country. And what’s especially impressive for their Giant Killing potential is that while Belmont is effective inside (shooting a lights-out 54.7 percent on 2-pointers), it relies heavily on 3s (32.5 percent of points, ranking 60th, versus 46.9 percent of points from 2-point FGs, ranking 295th). That means the Bruins can score in buckets, and can’t be easily shut down by the kind of interior defense that Giants often use to smother potential Killers. And don’t take the Bruins lightly because of their conference: Atlantic Sun teams played about as well as the Ivy or Horizon leagues this season, and even though our model sees strength of schedule as highly significant, it still loves the Bruins.

Their path forward: As Atlantic Sun champions, they’re in. Now all Belmont needs is a nice, vulnerable Giant to oppose in the opening round.

More on Belmont from Schlabach ESPN reporter

More on the 3 losses:

Three of the Bruins’ four losses came against SEC schools back in November and December. In the NIT, Belmont came back from a 17-point deficit and had a couple of chances to tie Tennessee in the final minutes, before falling 85-76 in its Nov. 16 opener. In a rematch against the Volunteers on Dec. 23, Tennessee’s Scotty Hopson hit the winning layup with 5.7 seconds left in UT’s 66-65 win. The Bruins also led Vanderbilt 35-32 at the half before losing 85-76 at Memorial Gym in Nashville on Dec. 4.

More on Depth:

Every player is capable of scoring, too, with 10 of its 11 regulars taking 100 shots or more this season. Going into the A-Sun tournament, Belmont’s bench averaged 40 points per game, the highest average in the country.

Reserves Scott Saunders, Jordan Campbell and Kerron Johnson are three of the team’s top five scorers and average at least 17.5 minutes per game

Byrd, who has won more than 500 games in 25 seasons at Belmont, said his system allows his players to play harder in three- or four-minute spurts.I came to the realization that you can ask your guys to play harder if you’re not playing them 35 minutes a game.  In every hustle statistic, the Bruins out-hustled their opponent.

More on 3 pointers: 

one of the country’s best 3-point shooting teams. Through March 3, they ranked No. 2 nationally with 9.5 3-pointers per game. Six Belmont players attempted 70 3-pointers or more this season and five are shooting 40 percent or better from behind the 3-point line.

NEW INFO:  The Bruins play great away from home. Since the start of the 2005-06 season, Belmont has 54 true road victories, which trails only Vermont among Division I teams. The Bruins have 13 road wins and 18 road/neutral victories this season, more than any other team in the country.

Along with 3-point shooting, Byrd has built his system around unselfish play. The Bruins rank 16th nationally in assists and they’re great at turning opponents over, averaging 9.7 steals, which is third-best in the country. The Bruins also rank among the country’s top five in turnover margin (plus-5.2).

This attention could take away some of the gambling value on this one (I think these guys were a 30 point underdog to Duke in 08) but no one had heard of them, and I think I recall some of us betting Duke in that game… Kosko??  I would love to see a rematch of that game this year.  Esp if Duke loses in their conf tourney and its a 13-4 matchup.

Belmont over N Fla wow, why havent we heard of them this year?

We may remember Belmont from 2008 when they came in as a 15 seed against Duke and came within 1 point of the upset of that year. 

This year Belmont has a 30-4 record.  Not a tough conference, but 3 of 4 losses were to Tenn twice (which they won AGAINST THE SPREAD) and Vanderbilt.  In fact, they only lost to Tenn by 1 @ Tenn. 

Only 5 of the 30 wins were less than double digit victories

They have depth and spread the glory.  9 players over 15 mins/game, none over 25.  7 players over 6 PPG, 2 in double digits.  With their large margins of victory, they all have good game experience, only 2 players with any time worth mentioning are freshmen.  With that many players and mixes of players, you would think they would have a hard time gelling, but that is actually another strength of theirs.  They rotate well and have great ball movement and are always in position to get the offensive boards, even with no bigs.   

Strong team defense, shot 50% from the floor. 

Even in the conf tourney they kept up the 11 players in double digit minutes.  This could be important at the end of games in the tourney they could tighten up games/point spreads at the end.  They wont get into foul trouble. 

They can rain the 3, hitting 9 in the conf final.

3.1-1—The assist-turnover ratio for junior PG Drew Hanlen, which led the A-Sun and was good for seventh nationally through Feb. 28. Hanlen just doesn’t make mistakes, as he had committed only 42 turnovers in 31 games, and he’s a main reason why Belmont could be a tough out in the NCAA Tournament. 

Junior C Scott Saunders was aggressive at Kennesaw State, hitting 11 of 12 free throws and finishing with a game-high 19 points off the bench. Saunders finished the regular season averaging 10.1 ppg while coming off the pine in every game.  He kept this up against North Fla with 15 points off the bench. 

I REALLY like this team, although the betting value may not be there.  Traditionally they have come in (all 3 years, 06-08) as a 15 seed, but gosh, I would guess they might get up to a 13 this year, MAYBE even a 12.  Even if they are a 15 again, I don’t know if we will get a big point spread, but if we do, look for these guys to cover.

Mid Field upset possibilities part 3 Belmont

The Nashville-based university put itself on the map in March of 2008, when the Bruins were within seconds of knocking off second-seeded Duke. Now, the team is looking at a return to the Big Dance. They’re the overwhelming favorite to get the Atlantic Sun bid after going 19-1 in-conference.

If the Bruins get another opportunity to make waves, they’ll look to a strength one of the power teams doesn’t want to face … depth. Ten players have played in every game this season. Eleven players average more than ten minutes a game. Belmont might not have the height of other squads (two tallest kids are 6’10″ and 6’9″), but they have the bodies to throw at you.

Upset potential: Sweet 16