BYU has reinstated Brandon Davies both to the school and to the basketball team. But being Jimmer-less will mean the Cougars will be mediocre at best. Davies is a role player who can’t carry the team; neither can anyone else on the team.
After seeing BYU own SDSU in both games this season, I want to see both teams in the MWC tourney. If one of these 2 teams wins, they will get a number 1 seed. As such, I looked at the history of their games to see if they might hold back from blowing out an opponent. Before conference play, BYU won their first game over Fresno St by 27, beat Chicago St by 49 points and Miss Valley St by 50. Their highest scoring matchup was against Utah, who they beat by 25, 104-79. They beat 2 teams by more than 30 points and 5 more teams by more than 20 points (aside from the ones I already mentioned), including a win at Vermont and over Pac-10 leader Arizona. So as a 1 or 2 seed, they should have no trouble beating large spread.
The only ranked teams they have defeated were UNLV (twice), SDSU (twice), Arizona, Utah State, St Mary’s and Vermont ( I think Vermont hit the ranking for a short stint)
BYUs losses came at UCLA and at New Mexico. UCLA wore Fredette down with physical defense. New Mexico did the same thing, guarding him strong one on one. At UCLA he had foul trouble as well. Wednesday’s game against NM will be a good one to watch to see if they can learn from that loss and win, or if there is a formula for beating BYU.
Against SDSU Jimmer drew double and even triple teams, which just opened up the other players and allowed them open shots. As much as his unselfish play has allowed the rest of his team to score, that is still with him on the floor, drawing the double teams. If he does get in foul trouble, it could put a different team on the floor.
Of course we have to see the matchup, but as of this writing, BYU should be a good bet to cover a big spread against a 15 or 16 seed team.
Basically, BYU will either have to incorporate players it rarely uses or shift to a smaller lineup better suited to its up-tempo style of play. It could be devastating for BYU. If they plan on making a deep run in the tournament they’re going to face more than one team with size and athleticism on the interior. They’re also likely to face coaches who will realize it’s easier to double on Fredette when you can rotate away from whoever will be filling for Davies, and coaches who will do their absolute best to slow the pace of the game to a crawl. Can BYU play in the half court without its best and most athletic big man? And what about defense? No one on this team protects the rim like Davies; his interior defense was one of the keys to BYU’s win at San Diego State on Saturday.
BYU
Jimmer averages 41 ppg versus RANKED opponents. BYU plays a lot of zone “because they feel it helps their rebounding” No true center.. Jackson Emery is a decent second option. Even with Fredette jacking shots, they really do find the open man and they can shoot. Bigs included, they can all jack 3’s. Really like their patience to get an open look. Fast paced but don’t force. Love their ability to score off turnovers. They seem to convert almost every time. I will definitely check opponents turnover stats. High turnover team could get blown out. Their only 2 losses against New Mexico and UCLA, they shot 7 of 37 from 3 pt land. Check opponents 3 point D stats.
1. Notre Dame — A team projected to finish in the bottom half of the Big East is now poised to earn a No. 2 seed in the tournament. But the road will be tough for the Fighting Irish to a top spot in the Big Dance with games against Villanova, whom they’ve not played yet, and at Connecticut, a team they beat by only three at home earlier. Regardless, Notre Dame should be “dancing” come March, especially if they finish high in the conference tournament.
2. Vanderbilt — Also a team projected to finish near the bottom of the SEC is now in place for a potential No. 5 seed. But with conference powers Tennessee, Kentucky, and Florida left on the schedule, the Commodores’ stock could drop a little, although not enough to knock them out of the tournament. And a good showing in the SEC tournament wouldn’t hurt.
3. St. John’s — Steve Lavin’s return to the bench has been a successful one, to say the least. The Red Storm were predicted to finish behind Notre Dame in the Big East, but are now projected as a No. 6 seed in the Tournament. With only Villanova as the remaining challenge on the schedule, St. John’s could take some momentum into the Big East Tournament and earn an even higher seed.
4. St. Mary’s — Projected to finish just behind Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference, but be passed over for tournament consideration, the Gaels are now looking at a possible No. 7 seed. St. Mary’s can sew up the conference title with a win over the Zags this week and then look to have a head of steam going into the conference tournament. If they win both the regular season and tourney titles, they could oust Gonzaga from March Madness.
5. UNLV — Predicted to finish fourth in the Mountain West, the Runnin’ Rebels have gone from Tournament hopefuls to a potential seventh seed. All that’s left for the Rebs on the schedule are bubble team New Mexico, Wyoming, and Utah. Then it’s on to the MWC tournament where they’ll try to wreak some havoc against two other surprising teams from the conference.
1. San Diego State — Projected to win the MWC but only be a No. 7 tournament seed at the beginning of the year, now a potential No. 1 seed. However, they’ll have a tough road to No. 1 the rest of the way with BYU, Wyoming (not so tough), and Colorado State to end the regular season. If they can win out they’ll probably earn a top seed somewhere, even if they don’t win the Mountain West tournament.
2. Texas — Also projected to be a No. 7 seed preseason and in position to be a No. 1. They also have a seemingly difficult schedule with Colorado, Kansas State, and Baylor left, but two of those teams have been big disappointments this year. Barring a major disaster, the Longhorns will be a top seed somewhere, and maybe even No. 1 overall.
3. BYU — Predicted to finish just behind San Diego State in the MWC and earn a No. 8 seed into the tournament, the Cougars have played well enough to be a possible No. 2 in March. But they’re schedule the rest of the way is also tough, with the aforementioned matchup with the Aztecs, plus games against Colorado State and New Mexico. The conference tournament should be the tell-all of just how high BYU can go in the March Madness seeding.
4. UConn — Projected to finish eighth in the Big East and be just a No. 12 seed into the tournament, the Huskies are looking at a possible No. 3 seed. While they sit in the middle of the pack in the conference standings, an upset win over Notre Dame and a good finish in the conference tournament could solidify UConn as a legitimate No. 3.
5. Old Dominion — Predicted to finish second in the Colonial, but miss the tournament, the Monarchs are now a possible No. 8 seed and potentially one of three teams to earn a tournament berth. It will be the conference tournament that will decide where they ultimately end up in the March bracket.
The best of the rest — George Mason, Cincinnati, Colorado State, Louisville
With plenty of help from his teammates, Fredette and the No. 9 Cougars shut up TreVon Willis and UNLV with a 78-64 victory Saturday that gave BYU the regular-season sweep.
Fredette became the Mountain West Conference career scoring leader, breaking the mark of 2,189 points set by San Diego State’s Brandon Heath in 2007. Fredette now has 2,194.
Despite battling a head cold that left him struggling to breathe, and double- and triple-teams that forced him to give up the ball and turn it over five times, Fredette still scored 29 points. He was a team-record 16 of 16 from the foul line, but just 6 of 14 from the field.
“He earned his points,” BYU coach Dave Rose said of Fredette, who also had seven assists.
BYU (22-2, 8-1) halted a three-game winning streak by UNLV (17-6, 5-4), which got 16 points from Anthony Marshall and 15 from Willis.
Jackson Emery added 15 points, including a pair of late 3-pointers, while Stephen Rogers came up big off the bench with 12 points and eight rebounds in 21 minutes for the Cougars. Charles Abouo added 10 points, while Brandon Davies and Noah Hartsoch each had three blocks.
“The bench was huge and in my opinion the key to the game,” Fredette said.
The game between fierce rivals was scrappy from the beginning, with two technicals assessed in the first half and a big pile up on the floor that had tempers flaring and fists flying.
There were 36 personal fouls called overall.
Forward Carlos Lopez was assessed the first technical during the scrum for a loose ball with 13:50 left in the first half, and forward Quintrell Thomas picked up UNLV’s second about a minute later after protesting a foul against Collinsworth while going for an offensive rebound.
“Early on we started to pay a little too much attention to the calls being made,” UNLV coach Lon Kruger said of the calls during an 11-0 BYU run. “I think it distracted us a bit and after the technicals it took us a bit to get our head back in the game.”
BYU lost two players to injury—starter Kyle Collinsworth sustained a mild concussion after going down hard trying to grab a rebound, and James Anderson mildly separated his shoulder.
The Rebels pulled within 20-17 on three 3-pointers, including two by Willis, only to have BYU go on another run. Emery started it with a 3-pointer, Rogers added a steal and fastbreak layup, and Abouo’s reverse layup made it 27-17 with 6:10 left in the half. A 3-pointer by Rogers increased BYU’s lead to 30-19 with 4:10 remaining in the half.
The Rebels shot just 25.8 percent in the first half (8 of 31) but stayed within striking distance with a 24-16 edge on the boards, including 11-4 on the offensive end.
“We were getting after the shooters,” Emery said. “We didn’t finish. We got them to miss but they had (11) offensive rebounds at halftime. It doesn’t matter if you play good defense for 30 seconds if you don’t finish.”
BYU led 38-27 at halftime and pushed the lead to 66-51 after Emery’s 3-pointer. Chace Stanback’s 3 pulled UNLV within 69-57 with 4:52 left, but that’s as close as UNLV got.
“What people don’t realize is he don’t want to pass the ball. He don’t want to get no assists,” Willis told the Las Vegas Review-Journal. “He wants to shoot the ball every single time. If you think he wants to pass it, then you’re wrong.”
Fredette, with so many hands in his face and bodies around him, was forced to pass plenty.
“Every screen we set for Jimmer, they doubled it, then they cover space really well,” Rose said.
Fredette, who has been getting lots of national media attention lately, knows it will be this way the rest of the season.
“They’re going to come after him, say stuff, try to get in his head,” Emry said. “When you can’t stop a guy as good as Jimmer, you’re going to get in his head. He’s so good at finding his teammates. That’s what makes us a tough team. Jimmer is a huge part of that, but the reason we’ll go far in the nation is the rest of the guys.”
Willis, who somewhat downplayed his animosity toward Fredette by saying he prefers not to shake anyone’s hand before a game, was just hopeful at getting one more shot at Fredette in the conference tournament.
“That would be great,” Willis said. “We lost two. It’d be great to get a third one, get another chance.”
The ninth-ranked Cougars showed they also have plenty of talented big men in Wednesday night’s 71-58 victory over No. 4 San Diego State that left No. 1 Ohio State as the only unbeaten team in the nation.
“It was a physical game and we stayed with them for about 35 minutes, but we just couldn’t hang for 40,” San Diego State coach Steve Fisher said. “This team is really good and our team is really good. I think we are both capable of beating any team anywhere at any time.”
BYU (20-1, 6-0) has won 10 straight, and six in a row at home against San Diego State (20-1, 5-1). While Fredette led the way on 14-of-24 shooting, reserve center James Anderson helped break open a close game with a career-high five blocks in 14 minutes. BYU forward Brandon Davies also kept the Cougars in it early with eight points in the first 10 minutes. “I feel like our guys really battled,” coach Dave Rose said.
They saw sophomore Kawhi Leonard record another double-double for the Aztecs with 22 points and 15 rebounds. And they also saw Anderson, an unheralded junior. “James did a great job,” Davies said of the 6-foot-10 Anderson, who added three rebounds. “They have great bigs and that’s one of the things we emphasized. … He came in and played them 1-on-1 and did a great job.”
The Cougars trailed 31-30 at halftime thanks to a late 3-pointer by Leonard. But BYU turned it on in the second half. With the score tied at 44, the Cougars went on a 16-8 run to take a 60-52 lead with 4:12 to go. Noah Hartsock capped the run with a layup. Fredette also hit a pair of 3-pointers, Anderson had several key blocks and BYU’s career steals leader, Jackson Emery, came up with a key theft and jam. Emery scored only four points but held Aztecs point guard D.J. Gay to two on 0-for-7 shooting. Leonard’s jumper pulled San Diego State to 60-54 with 3:45 remaining, but then Fredette took over. He made seven straight free throws to give BYU a 13-point lead. “I made my first couple of shots in the second half and I wanted to keep going and being aggressive,” said Fredette, who has topped 40 points in three of his last four games.
San Diego State won the rebounding battle 42-35, but only by two in the second half. “I think the key to the win was our big guys coming in and rebounding the heck out of the ball in the second half,” Fredette said.
There were more blocks (five) than fouls (three) in the first 14 minutes as the officials let the teams go at it.
2010 Tournament Summary – Stats had them as correctly favored verse Florida and they covered barely. Interestingly enough, I bet against Florida and not on BYU. Same old same old with them in my mind. They just didn’t face a good team. They had 4 solid guards and like to push the tempo. They won when they forced turnovers.
2011 Outlook – Team has to replace three key guards – Taverini was bascially a starter and could alwas create his own shot, first off the bench energy transferred and sharp shooting solid baller Hawes is on mission. Add to that the loss of their center and they have some unknowns. Similar team, though to years past.
My Notes: I want to say same old, but I cant. Until they prove me wrong, this team is a step behind last years. Hawes sharp shooting was deadly and Taverini could always be counted on to create a shot. Those are not easily replaceable entities. This may be more of a return to the old BYU, not the actually maybe good of last ears BYU.
Vs UNLV: I think Jackson Emery is my favorit e BYU player.. not Fredette. He is a fantasic baller. BYU played a zone against UNLV and did a good job of cutting off penetration. To be honest, though, I felt like that was more about the UNLV guards lack of ability to create, then their zone. That said, UNLV did get pushed into nothing but jumpers. BYU is small inside in my mind. They have some bigs, but no one that screams great to me and certainly a concerning spot for them. They got eaten alive on offensive rebounds, but that was exasperated by the zone. When they do get the rebound, they push!!!! If a team shoots a lot of three point jumpers, this could feed the BYU offense. If they pound it inside, they may have success against BYU.
