UConn

Wow. I can believe how unimpressed I am or was with UConn. They have tons of talented bigs, but they didnt lean on them in this game at all. They have a solid point guard in Napier, although I am not nearly as impressed with him as others. He is 6′ish and doesnt score a lot on his own. Lamb looks like he is out of position at times and struggled to get looks in this game. He also is not carrying himself like a captain or a player that he should or needs to be. They also have one of their main guards out (Boatright) who will be cleared to play January 29th.

All in all, this team is a relative paper lion right now. Let’s see them in March with Boatright in and somebody stepping up as a leader. This team looked like a team desperately in need of Kemba Walker who was watching the game from the stands.

Article on surprises and disappointments this year (surprises)

Major Surprises

1. Notre Dame — A team projected to finish in the bottom half of the Big East is now poised to earn a No. 2 seed in the tournament. But the road will be tough for the Fighting Irish to a top spot in the Big Dance with games against Villanova, whom they’ve not played yet, and at Connecticut, a team they beat by only three at home earlier. Regardless, Notre Dame should be “dancing” come March, especially if they finish high in the conference tournament.

2. Vanderbilt — Also a team projected to finish near the bottom of the SEC is now in place for a potential No. 5 seed. But with conference powers Tennessee, Kentucky, and Florida left on the schedule, the Commodores’ stock could drop a little, although not enough to knock them out of the tournament. And a good showing in the SEC tournament wouldn’t hurt.

3. St. John’s — Steve Lavin’s return to the bench has been a successful one, to say the least. The Red Storm were predicted to finish behind Notre Dame in the Big East, but are now projected as a No. 6 seed in the Tournament. With only Villanova as the remaining challenge on the schedule, St. John’s could take some momentum into the Big East Tournament and earn an even higher seed.

4. St. Mary’s — Projected to finish just behind Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference, but be passed over for tournament consideration, the Gaels are now looking at a possible No. 7 seed. St. Mary’s can sew up the conference title with a win over the Zags this week and then look to have a head of steam going into the conference tournament. If they win both the regular season and tourney titles, they could oust Gonzaga from March Madness.

5. UNLV — Predicted to finish fourth in the Mountain West, the Runnin’ Rebels have gone from Tournament hopefuls to a potential seventh seed. All that’s left for the Rebs on the schedule are bubble team New Mexico, Wyoming, and Utah. Then it’s on to the MWC tournament where they’ll try to wreak some havoc against two other surprising teams from the conference.

Mild Surprises

1. San Diego State — Projected to win the MWC but only be a No. 7 tournament seed at the beginning of the year, now a potential No. 1 seed. However, they’ll have a tough road to No. 1 the rest of the way with BYU, Wyoming (not so tough), and Colorado State to end the regular season. If they can win out they’ll probably earn a top seed somewhere, even if they don’t win the Mountain West tournament.

2. Texas — Also projected to be a No. 7 seed preseason and in position to be a No. 1. They also have a seemingly difficult schedule with Colorado, Kansas State, and Baylor left, but two of those teams have been big disappointments this year. Barring a major disaster, the Longhorns will be a top seed somewhere, and maybe even No. 1 overall.

3. BYU — Predicted to finish just behind San Diego State in the MWC and earn a No. 8 seed into the tournament, the Cougars have played well enough to be a possible No. 2 in March. But they’re schedule the rest of the way is also tough, with the aforementioned matchup with the Aztecs, plus games against Colorado State and New Mexico. The conference tournament should be the tell-all of just how high BYU can go in the March Madness seeding.

4. UConn — Projected to finish eighth in the Big East and be just a No. 12 seed into the tournament, the Huskies are looking at a possible No. 3 seed. While they sit in the middle of the pack in the conference standings, an upset win over Notre Dame and a good finish in the conference tournament could solidify UConn as a legitimate No. 3.

5. Old Dominion — Predicted to finish second in the Colonial, but miss the tournament, the Monarchs are now a possible No. 8 seed and potentially one of three teams to earn a tournament berth. It will be the conference tournament that will decide where they ultimately end up in the March bracket.

The best of the rest — George Mason, Cincinnati, Colorado State, Louisville

Who will be crying as Cinderella stomps them with a glass slipper?

Of course, upsets aren’t just about one team. Upsets happen because the strength of the lower-seeded team matches up with the weakness of the higher seeded team. But without knowing who is playing who for another month, all we can do for now is identify teams who look primed for an upset. Here are three I’m hoping to see against one of my Cinderellas-in-waiting above.

Florida State Seminoles, ACC

I have to admit I’m rooting for the Seminoles to do well through the rest of their ACC slate just so they’ll get a higher seed and it will be a bigger upset when they lose. Seventeen teams over the past four years have come in with an adjusted offensive efficiency of less than 101.0. All 17 have flamed out in the first round. FSU’s adjusted offensive efficiency as of Monday? 100.52.

One other note: The last time the ACC made it through the first round without suffering an upset was 2006. In the four years since then, ACC teams have been on the losing end of seven first-round upsets, three by Clemson and one each by Florida State, Wake Forest, Duke, and Boston College. If I thought Clemson had a chance at making the tournament as a top eight seed, I’d just go with them. But since I don’t think that will happen, FSU seems like the best bet to continue the streak.

Missouri Tigers, Big 12

The Tigers don’t have a flameout stat profile, but this is a gut thing based on watching a good number of their games living St. Louis. The bottom line is the guards on this team just aren’t good enough. Marcus Denmon is doing his part, but Kim English has been so inconsistent coach Mike Anderson started bringing him off the bench in an attempt to get him to play more under control. In the Tigers’ five road conference losses, English has hit just 11 of his 43 shot attempts for a total of 37 points. Whenever the guy who takes the second most shots on your team ends up with less than a point per shot, that’s not good. It’s also not a real good thing when that same guy is a better shooter from three (44-112, .393) than from two (37-102, .363).

(And if you think I’m over-reacting to one guy’s performance, ask Notre Dame fans how thankful they are to finally escape the Tory Jackson era. The Irish lost as the higher seed twice in the three first round games while Jackson was in South Bend. Bad guard play kills you in the NCAA tournament.)

Connecticut Huskies, Big East

You just don’t know what you’re going to get from Kemba Walker. The average of 23.2 points per game looks great, but averages don’t win games. Consistency does. And Connecticut has no idea game by game whether Walker is going to go off for 30+, as he has six times this season, or whether he’s going to build a brick city like he did against Syracuse last week (3-14 FG, 8 points). Walker’s points per possession are the lowest of his career at 1.27, and that’s a problem when almost all of your other contributors are freshmen and sophomores.

Also, I know Roscoe Smith was a highly touted recruit and all, but he doesn’t attack on offense and he doesn’t rotate on defense. He just stands there and waits for something good to happen. It’s not entirely unexpected from an overmatched freshman forward making the jump into the Big East, but the fact he has played almost 65 percent of the minutes (26.5 mpg) is a bad sign that UConn has no better options. And when you combine weak post play with inconsistent guard play, that spells U-P-S-E-T.

Connecticut

Vs Tennessee: What an interesting team. Kemba Walker has such an awesome edge to his game that even his passes are cool. Inside they rotate a bunch of bigs who can score, defend, and rebound. Add to this about 3 other guard/forwards who can shoot the three and this is an elite eight team. If they / when they figure it out, this is a team of young kids with a super guard that could win the title.

Vs St Johns:  The Huskies had trouble all game with St. John’s matchup zone, which trapped ballhandlers repeatedly. They rarely attacked the basket, passing the ball around the perimeter and usually settling for a rushed jumper. ”We have faced 160 straight minutes of matchup zone,” Connecticut coach Jim Calhoun said of a four-game stretch that has seen the Huskies go 2-2. “We should have an idea by now.” They don’t. ”I don’t know,” Connecticut’s Kemba Walker said when asked why the Huskies have trouble with the matchup zone. “That’s why we’re struggling against it. I’m sure we’ll see a lot more of it.”I think our pressure over the course of the game had a cumulative effect in terms of wearing UConn down,” Lavin said, “so they weren’t as fresh in terms of their shots and it allowed us to go on runs and eventually have the knockout punch.”The Huskies continued to have troubles at the free throw line, especially Walker. He is 6 of 15 from the line in his last three games and is still shooting 74 percent for the season. Connecticut is 28 of 50 in that same span.

Vs Louisville: I cant figure this team out. They have awesome talent.. and I do mean awesome.. but they lack an identity eXCEPT Kemba walker firing up everything he can.. Calhoun is rotaing what seems like 100 people so I could never get a feel for the team and they also seemed to lack the ability to find consistency. If this team fires on all cylinders, they could hit the Final Four. If not, look for them to still reach the sweet 16 but not much more. Their bigs are good, but they stray from them. They are good defensively. Kemba walker is way overrated if you ask me but he can score. He just doesnt make others around him any better. Jamal Coombs-McDaniel is very solid. Too much talent to NOT win in the tournament, but too many problems to make if far if they play this way.

Vs Cinci: Okay.. I think I am getting them. They are awesome. Before I sound bi-polar here is my logic. This team has fantastic talent but it relies heavily on freshman. That said, could they have hit that freshman wall? This would explain the high, low, and back to hi with this game. Their guard play was very solid. Kemba Walker does not need to always handle the ball and even in this game when he got slowed with fouls they lost nothing. Inside, plenty of height and options. They can go really big or they can go mix of big and athleticism.  I think that verse a good team they will win and possibly by 7-12 and verse a poor team by 10 -15.