Florida State 2012 Hug article

Florida State: The Seminoles struggle to score at times – there really isn’t anyone on the roster who is that proficient at creating his own shot – but they play lockdown defense and have a nice group of big men. Getting off to a fast start in league play may be difficult. Four of the first six league games are on the road, and one of the home games in that stretch is against North Carolina.

Florida State

I am torn on this team. I want to say, not as good as last year, but I bet against even last year. Here is my gut take. Not as good as last years team at this point for two reasons. Still really long and play amazing defense, but no Singleton who was an unbelievable Xfactor. They also are not as good on offense.

Now.. that said.. this is still a gritty, long, tough team. They also get a scorer in Ian Miller back in January. They need it. I want to see them again in February or so and see the impact he has on them. Bottom line, though, this team will fight scrap bite and claw in any game.

Vs Maryland: Really settling in on offense and getting their flow. 6 minutes in, they had more points than they had in the entire first half of the Princeton game.  That said, they are still a little awkward on offense. Their best offense is still their offensive rebounding. I am going to stick by my original thought, though.. as Maryland wasn’t all that impressive to me so I will move them into the same league as mid-to-upper mid teams like Kansas State, Michigan State, West Virginia… Teams I like, but not elite even with wins over UNC and Duke at Duke.

Feb 25th ESPN
Talking about the most inconsistent teams this year. Judging by the Seminoles’ performances this season, anything is possible. They could win by 33, as they did against the North Carolina Tar Heels (the highest-rated performance by any Division I team this season with a Game BPI of 99.8). They could fold like they did in a 20-point loss to the Clemson Tigers (ranked 91st in BPI). Maybe another barn-burner is on tap — six of Florida State’s past 11 games have been decided by five or fewer points. The point is that you really don’t know what you’re going to get with this team. Yes, Florida State has four wins against top-50 opponents. But it also lost a triple-OT game against Princeton (139th in BPI) and gave Boston College (221st in BPI) its only win in its past 10 games. Only one other top-35 team has lost to such a poor opponent this season `(New Mexico’s loss to Santa Clara in November).

Who will be crying as Cinderella stomps them with a glass slipper?

Of course, upsets aren’t just about one team. Upsets happen because the strength of the lower-seeded team matches up with the weakness of the higher seeded team. But without knowing who is playing who for another month, all we can do for now is identify teams who look primed for an upset. Here are three I’m hoping to see against one of my Cinderellas-in-waiting above.

Florida State Seminoles, ACC

I have to admit I’m rooting for the Seminoles to do well through the rest of their ACC slate just so they’ll get a higher seed and it will be a bigger upset when they lose. Seventeen teams over the past four years have come in with an adjusted offensive efficiency of less than 101.0. All 17 have flamed out in the first round. FSU’s adjusted offensive efficiency as of Monday? 100.52.

One other note: The last time the ACC made it through the first round without suffering an upset was 2006. In the four years since then, ACC teams have been on the losing end of seven first-round upsets, three by Clemson and one each by Florida State, Wake Forest, Duke, and Boston College. If I thought Clemson had a chance at making the tournament as a top eight seed, I’d just go with them. But since I don’t think that will happen, FSU seems like the best bet to continue the streak.

Missouri Tigers, Big 12

The Tigers don’t have a flameout stat profile, but this is a gut thing based on watching a good number of their games living St. Louis. The bottom line is the guards on this team just aren’t good enough. Marcus Denmon is doing his part, but Kim English has been so inconsistent coach Mike Anderson started bringing him off the bench in an attempt to get him to play more under control. In the Tigers’ five road conference losses, English has hit just 11 of his 43 shot attempts for a total of 37 points. Whenever the guy who takes the second most shots on your team ends up with less than a point per shot, that’s not good. It’s also not a real good thing when that same guy is a better shooter from three (44-112, .393) than from two (37-102, .363).

(And if you think I’m over-reacting to one guy’s performance, ask Notre Dame fans how thankful they are to finally escape the Tory Jackson era. The Irish lost as the higher seed twice in the three first round games while Jackson was in South Bend. Bad guard play kills you in the NCAA tournament.)

Connecticut Huskies, Big East

You just don’t know what you’re going to get from Kemba Walker. The average of 23.2 points per game looks great, but averages don’t win games. Consistency does. And Connecticut has no idea game by game whether Walker is going to go off for 30+, as he has six times this season, or whether he’s going to build a brick city like he did against Syracuse last week (3-14 FG, 8 points). Walker’s points per possession are the lowest of his career at 1.27, and that’s a problem when almost all of your other contributors are freshmen and sophomores.

Also, I know Roscoe Smith was a highly touted recruit and all, but he doesn’t attack on offense and he doesn’t rotate on defense. He just stands there and waits for something good to happen. It’s not entirely unexpected from an overmatched freshman forward making the jump into the Big East, but the fact he has played almost 65 percent of the minutes (26.5 mpg) is a bad sign that UConn has no better options. And when you combine weak post play with inconsistent guard play, that spells U-P-S-E-T.

Florida State

Florida State

2010 Tourney Summary: Lost by 7 on spread of about 2 to Gonzaga. My statistical analysis actually told me to bet Florida State. This was the second year in a row they lost in the first round of the tournament. My notes said they were really solid on D and really long, but they just could not score against good defensive teams.  Blue Ribbon called their defense Sweet 16 but their offense NIT.

2011 Notes: Lost their huge Center and Forward from last year, but they have a 4 rotation guard set that intrigues me. They return 4 starters, but their center is up in the air. Their best post player is solid (Singleton) but he is horrible from the FT line.

My Notes: This team has lost the last few years because of the imbalance in size they had. They didn’t have enough guard play – primarily offensive – to create enough offense to win. They relied too heavily on their huge players on defense. This year watch to see if they become more of a normal team. If they do, Hamiltons emphasis on defense will yield them a real shot at winning in round one.

Vegas Notes:

Game two, but trend verse not great teams? Much like in their opener against North Florida, the Seminoles dictated the game’s tempo in the first half, as they built a commanding 46-29 lead at halftime. The Spartans had a tough time dealing with the Seminoles’ length and aggressiveness all afternoon long

Game Notes: Florida – Florida made 17 of 25 free throws while Florida State scored six points from the line. The Gators also had a 35-31 rebounding advantage.The Gators led almost from the start, taking advantage of poor Florida State shooting. Florida State coach Leonard Hamilton expected to see Florida throw a zone defense at his taller club, but he’d hoped his team would handle it better. ”They played us all zone and they don’t do that very often,” Hamilton said. “They were a lot more aggressive attacking the basket. We didn’t attack.”  Florida State shot just 33.3 percent against the smaller, quicker Gators. Kirk Note – I think this team may suck… I think the ACC may suck if this is a top 3-4 team for them. Same old story where no one can score BUT not as dominating with height. Could be interesting to track this.

Chris Singelton ESPN Blog Entry: I think we should be around 20. [FSU is No. 22 in the AP poll.] We’ve won four games in a row and the teams we lost to besides Auburn, they’re all tournament teams and we were in those games for the most part. I feel good about our losses but they’re gonna hold us back. We’re in a better groove now. I feel like against Ohio State, Florida and Butler, us just going out and playing, we really didn’t know each other. Now we know how to play together. Our chemistry is better. We know where everyone’s going to be on the floor at all times. We’re playing better as a team. Derwin Kitchen, for one, is way more aggressive. He’s getting three or four [3.7 apg] assists per game, a couple of rebounds [5.9 rpg]. With his aggressiveness people have to actually pay attention to him on the offensive end. It does wonders for our team. We’re open. People actually have to play him. Last year, a couple teams’ point guards actually left him alone. They were basically playing five-on-four. They didn’t pay attention to Derwin. We’ve come together as a team, talked to each other and told everyone what we have to do. Everyone’s buying in right now.
Gottleib Note: Florida State has once again discovered that it’s putrid on the road. After losing at Auburn around New Year’s, it no-showed Saturday at Clemson. Of all the awful stats you need to know, 21 turnovers on the road will get you beat every time.