Kentucky article last paragraph has a couple thoughts on MSU

The other team that resided at the top of most preseason rankings was Kentucky.Despite having a team consisting almost solely of freshmen and sophomores, Kentucky has succeeded expectations. If any team is to go down in history as having a season for the ages, it will be the Wildcats.

However, Kentucky’s playing group is indicative of a new status quo, where freshmen cannot only be the most talented players on the court, but tenacious, mature leaders. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist embodies those traits for Kentucky.

The other super freshman that leads the Wildcats is Anthony Davis, who barring injury or collapse, will be the first pick in an NBA draft many observers consider extraordinarily deep.

College basketball has seen its fair share of extraordinary shot blockers. Alonzo Mourning, Hasheem Thabeet, Emeka Okafor, and David Robinson come to mind. But Davis single-handedly takes away the lane in a way that I can’t ever remember seeing. For the season, Davis blocks 15.1% of opposing teams’ two-pointers and contests or effects many others. His once maligned offensive game has improved over the course of the season, but he’s not a back-to-the-basket post player. Davis gets his points regardless, 13.9 per game this season on a little more than 8 shot attempts per contest.

As a team, Kentucky is more known for defense than offense, but its ability to score may actually be more impressive. According to Ken Pomeroy’s statistics, Kentucky scores approximately 1.21 points per possession (the national average typically hovers around 1), while giving up 0.86 per trip. In conference play, Kentucky is only slightly less stellar, scoring 1.19 PPP while allowing 0.92. Outscoring opponents in conference play by over a quarter-point per possession after 12 league games is typically reserved for top mid-majors playing a bunch of sub-200 RPI teams in their respective conferences. As a comparison, Ohio State has the second best efficiency margin in a major conference this season at +0.19 points per possession.

Here is a list of the in-conference efficiency margins of the national champions since 2003, the first year in which possession-based game data is available. When you consider that there are over 1,000 possessions in a 16-game conference season, the decimals below can add up to substantial point differentials.

Kentucky is currently at +0.27. In other words, the Wildcats are more dominant in conference play than any of the last nine national champions.

If John Calipari’s club can go undefeated in the SEC, it will mark the first time that a team has gone undefeated in a BCS league since Kansas in 2003. Skeptics will point to the fact the SEC does not have a litany of good teams, and they would be right. Florida and Vanderbilt are the only teams in the conference likely to be above an 8-seed on Selection Sunday. Mississippi State has talent to keep up with Kentucky, but often can’t get out of its own way, as evidenced by a weekend loss at Auburn. Nonetheless, teams in sub-par major conferences like recent editions of the Pac-10/12 haven’t put up records or numbers anywhere close to Kentucky’s.

As if Kentucky needed any more signs of encouragement, freshman point guard Marquis Teague has started to play at a higher level. Teague was just as highly regarded coming out of high school as Davis and Kidd-Gilchrist, but the Indianapolis native has struggled at times with turnovers and his shot. He tends to run the offense now as opposed to creating for himself.

At this point in the season, it makes sense to call Kentucky a near-prohibitive favorite for the national championship. Syracuse, who has one loss like Kentucky, struggles on the defensive glass to an alarming degree. Missouri is at a decided size disadvantage against the bigger teams, and has shown some defensive warts in conference play. Duke is also an average defensive team. It’s tough to imagine Kansas running through six games without Tyshawn Taylor’s turnover and free throw woes featuring prominently. Ohio State struggles with three-point shooting, which becomes especially key if teams can take away Jared Sullinger inside. North Carolina’s problems have been documented above.

Michigan State may just be the second best team in the country right now. Draymond Green is not the most talented player, but he’s unquestionably the best leader and best teammate. If a big play or big stop has to be made for the Spartans, the senior Green will probably be the one to make it. As a team, the only weakness Michigan State has is that it perhaps turns over the ball a little more than normal. The Spartans wouldn’t have as much talent on the floor if they played Kentucky in a tournament situation, but they would certainly be capable of keeping up. I don’t know if that can be said about some of the other possible top four seeds in the NCAA tournament.

Kentucky

Kentucky
I do not like Calipari. I would really like to bet against him. Nowhere close to the talent level of last year’s team. Knight, Lamb and Jones are the best players. It is classic dribble – drive with Miller as the 3 point shooter. They are athletic and long on the perimeter. Apparently, they only play 6 guys. That is a recipe for getting upset in the tourney when you get winded just from nerves. They do not hit the glass well. Their big guys, other than Jones, are very unimpressive. They were extremely efficient in the 2nd half against FL. Calipari can get them motivated to play a good half. Their challenge appears to be turning it on for the entire game. Given the depth issue that makes sense. Lamb and Knight are better free throw shooters than the average Calipari team. If they shoot the ball well, they can win big. They put good pressure on the ball and have a lot of length on defense. I see them as 50 – 50 to make the sweet 16.

Kentucky

Not a lot of depth (only go 6 deep) but fair amount of talent. 3 freshman guards score 67.5% of points. Like all John Cal teams, up tempo, pressure. Only 7-8 against top 100 teams and 6-8 away from home. Not sold on them. With lack of depth and young team, I don’t see them pulling away from anyone. Probably win by 3-10 points in round 1.

Florida

vs. Kentucky. Pretty athletic as I would have suspected from a Donovan lead team. I think this was a good loss. Their inability to grab rebounds allowed Kentucky to score a boatload of second chance points. Kentucky simply doesn’t lose at Rupp. Florida was in the game for the first 35 minutes. Florida 9-3 in games decided by 6 points or less and 3-1 in overtime this season. If they slip to a 4-6 seed, spread could be tighter which could be a good thing. Nobody on this team has won an NCAA game yet. After the two championships, Florida had 2 years away from March Madness. Last year, they got bumped by BYU in round 1, 99-92. I see this team being hungry and putting up 90+ points. The last 2 two first round NCAA games, Donovan lead teams scored (2007 Jackson St.) 112 and (2010 BYU) 92. He will send a message and they will be running and gunning. I will likely bet them with that said.

Kentucky

Notes: Frashcilla:  What I like about the Wildcats: Perimeter athleticism – Kentucky can put four elite perimeter athletes on the floor, including mismatch nightmare Terrance Jones at the power forward position. The Wildcats are shooting the 3-point shot at a 40 percent rate and are only turning the ball over 15 percent of the time. That’s efficient. What I don’t like about the Wildcats: No post presence – Barring the miraculous return of Turkish import Enes Kanter, Calipari has few answers inside, as the Wildcats are shooting a pedestrian 47 percent inside the arc. That’s a sure sign of limited offense in the paint.

KY Notes: I am losing notes for some reason so this is a summary of past posts… Gah.. Kentucky .. dont zone them. They can hit the outside shot and they can slash and pass through the zone. Knight, lamb, and liggens are a really solid guard combination that is growing on me for their ability to hit the shots you need to to bust a zone.  Calipari is begging them to be more aggressive. Jones is a mismatch.. he is awesome and being left handed doesnt hurt but he plays like he wants to be a guard (which he was in high school) but Calipari is shoving him into the post. They have no post. So.. they are a powerful team to be reckoned with until they meet a team that has the full compliment of strengths – Defense, Guard Play, and Bigs. Think Pitt. So I would put them as a very tough matchup in the tournament and probably a sweet 16 team that just doesnt have the horses to get past that. Vegas note – Kentucky frequently will battle from behind in the scond half of games – even on the road. If they are down, second half bet could be solid.

Vs Tenn: Guards run this team and as they go KY will go. Their big is a D1 stiff no matter what people say. And if you can attack him, you will have an advantage. If this team can penetrate they do well.. obvious.. but in years past they had a post man to go to. JOnes is really good, but you can tell he wants to play guard and is only kidna comfortable in the key. His left hand will challenge other bigs. I like them for a round or two.

Rivals com top 25 preseason

Preseason top 25
1. DUKE
Why they’re here: Duke has perhaps the nation’s top returning player in F Kyle Singler, the Most Outstanding Player of last season’s Final Four. The arrivals of Liberty transfer Seth Curry and highly touted freshman Kyrie Irving should make up for the loss of All-America G Jon Scheyer in the backcourt. Duke also boasts arguably the nation’s best coach in Mike Krzyzewski. The key player: Irving arrives on campus as the No. 4 prospect in the 2010 recruiting class, and the Blue Devils need him to live up to his billing. Irving, Curry and All-America candidate Nolan Smith all have the ability to play either guard position, but Irving is the most natural point guard of the trio. Duke will need this freshman to play with the poise of an upperclassman by the time March rolls around.
2. MICHIGAN STATE
Why they’re here: The Spartans could be better than the team that reached its second consecutive Final Four last season. Michigan State made its tournament run with G Kalin Lucas on crutches and F Delvon Roe hobbled by injuries. F Draymond Green is Evan Turner-like in his versatility, and G Durrell Summers was the team MVP in March. The key player: Lucas had an up-and-down season because of injuries; he missed the Final Four run with a torn Achilles tendon. When healthy, he’s one of the best point guards in the country, but he missed the entire offseason rehabbing his injury.
3. KANSAS
Why they’re here: With freshman G Josh Selby, Kansas would be the favorite to win the Big 12. Selby is a do-it-all point guard, with tremendous athleticism. Team him with underrated PF Marcus Morris, and KU would have one of the best inside-outside duos in the nation. But while coach Bill Self has said he thinks Selby will play this season, the NCAA hasn’t officially ruled on his eligibility yet. Without Selby, KU is good – but it wouldn’t be this good. The key player: Obviously, it’s Selby. But even if Selby is eligible, G Tyshawn Taylor can’t be overlooked. He is a solid all-around player, and his defense and passing were strong last season. He seemingly can get to the rim against anybody, but Taylor must improve his outside stroke. If he becomes an adequate 3-point shooter, KU would become exceedingly tough to beat.
4. PITTSBURGH
Why they’re here: If there were any lingering doubts about coach Jamie Dixon‘s abilities, they ended last season. This has become a big-time program, one that re-loads and not rebuilds. G Ashton Gibbs is a big-timer, and Brad Wanamaker and Travon Woodall complete one of the better guard triumvirates in the nation. There also are a lot of big bodies up front that will help the Panthers play their aggressive and physical brand of defense. The key player: While the backcourt gets most of the attention, don’t sleep on the frontcourt. Keep an especially close eye on senior C Gary McGhee. He has the size and skill set to be a low-post enforcer on defense and a productive garbage man on offense. If he can push his scoring average to around 10 points – a jump of 3.1 from last season – coach Jamie Dixon would be happy.
5. OHIO STATE
Why they’re here: Do-everything swingman Evan Turner is gone, but the Buckeyes still have enough talent returning and arriving to make another run in the Big Ten. Freshman Jared Sullinger will step in and make an instant impact in the frontcourt. William Buford was perhaps underrated in Turner’s shadow; that won’t be the case anymore. The key player: The Buckeyes have plenty of guards (Buford, Jon Diebler), but no true point guard. Senior David Lighty, who played on a Final Four team as a freshman, could claim Turner’s role as the do-everything swingman.
6. KANSAS STATE
Why they’re here: Kansas will be a hot place to be this basketball season, what with the Jayhawks, Missouri Valley favorite Wichita State and these guys. The Wildcats fell to Butler in the Elite Eight last season, and the bulk of the key players are back, including potential All-America G Jacob Pullen. There also are some solid newcomers who will help K-State challenge Kansas for supremacy in the state and in the Big 12. The key player: F Wally Judge was the crown jewel of last season’s freshman class, but Judge never really seemed to adapt to the trappings of major-college ball. He certainly has all the physical tools. If he lives up to his high school hype, the Wildcats will have one of the best frontcourts in the nation, as he and fellow holdovers Curtis Kelly and Jamar Samuels will be joined by transfer Freddy Asprilla and freshman Nino Williams.
7. VILLANOVA
Why they’re here: Scottie Reynolds – a backcourt fixture for the Wildcats for, what, about 12 or 13 seasons? – is gone, but coach jay Wright still has one of the best backcourts around. Look for senior G Corey Fisher to become a star, and Dominic Cheek, Corey Stokes and Maalik Wayns lend ample backcourt support. Senior F Antonio Pena willingly does all the little things. The key player: Sophomore C Mouphtaou Yarou was sidelined by hepatitis B early last season and struggled to gain his footing once he was healthy. But he has the athleticism and skill level to be a defensive force, and he should be able to provide 10 or so points per game as well. Plus, with Yarou in the lineup, Pena can play power forward, his natural position.
8. SYRACUSE
Why they’re here: Wesley Johnson, Arinze Onuaku and Andy Rautins – all gone. But weep not for coach Jim Boeheim, who once again will be busy in March. Look for junior K Kris Joseph to make the jump from important reserve to go-to guy. Rich Jackson is a physical presence up front, and Scoop Jardine and Brandon Triche are solid combo guards. The key player: Freshman C Fab Melo arrives with a load of hype, and the 7-footer should be able to live up to most of it. His name is a perfect fit for Syracuse (come on – anyone named “Melo” has to play for the Orange), and his skills in the low post fit should fit perfectly with what this team needs.
9. BAYLOR
Why they’re here: The Bears were in the Elite Eight last season, and while they lost some key players from that team, there’s still some talent on hand. Most notably, G LaceDarius Dunn is back for his senior season. Dunn is one of the best offensive players in the nation. Big things are expected from true freshman F Perry Jones, an athletic big man who will score, rebound and block shots. The key player: Sophomore A.J. Walton will try to fill the shoes of departed PG Tweety Carter. Walton has good range and while he’s not likely to score as much as Carter (who averaged 15.0 points last season), he has the potential to be a double-figure scorer and a guy who gets four or five assists a night.
10. NORTH CAROLINA
Why they’re here: This ranking admittedly is a leap of faith, considering North Carolina failed to reach the NCAA tournament last season. But we’re betting freshman F Harrison Barnes immediately establishes himself as one of the nation’s top players, and that five-star prospect Reggie Bullock shores up the backcourt. We’re also counting on sophomore F John Henson to make major strides and C Tyler Zeller to stay healthy. The key player: The easy answer is to go with Barnes, but we’re betting he’s the real deal. We also could focus on the continued development of Henson and PG Larry Drew III. But it would really help the Tar Heels if Zeller could stay healthy for an entire season after being injured for large chunks of the past two. If he can play a full season, this highly skilled 7-footer could shore up a frontcourt that has plenty of star power but serious depth concerns.
11. GONZAGA
Why they’re here: Gonzaga returns four starters from a team that went 27-7 and advanced to the second round of the NCAA tournament last season. The Zags have a potential first-round draft pick in sophomore F Elias Harris, a legitimate 7-footer in Robert Sacre and a proven perimeter scorer in G Steven Gray. The key player: The Zags need more production from PG Demetri Goodson. Although Goodson technically was Gonzaga’s starting point guard last season, he had less than half as many assists as SG Matt Bouldin. Now that Bouldin has completed his college career, Goodson needs to emerge as more of a playmaker.
12. KENTUCKY
Why they’re here: The Wildcats are ranked this highly because, with freshman big man Enes Kanter, they will have excellent inside-outside balance and should win the SEC. One problem: Kanter’s eligibility is an issue, and he hasn’t even practiced with the team. He is the centerpiece of yet another fantastic recruiting class put together by John Calipari. The key player: If Kanter is eligible, it’ll be him, as he basically will be asked to be this season’s version of DeMarcus Cousins. If he isn’t eligible, freshman PG Brandon Knight – a big-time talent in his own right – will have more of the scoring responsibility. He and fellow freshman Doron Lamb should form a productive backcourt; how productive it will have to be depends on Kanter’s status.
13. FLORIDA
Why they’re here: All five starters are back from a team that lost in the first round of the NCAA tourney. Plus, there’s a solid group of freshman, headed by physical big man Patric Young. Senior F Chandler Parsons made huge strides last season, and his versatility at 6 feet 9 – he can hit the 3-pointer, as well as put the ball on the floor and get to the rim – is a key part of Florida’s offense. Backcourt depth potentially is a huge problem again, and some freshmen must come through on the perimeter. The key player: G Kenny Boynton struggled with his shot last season as a true freshman and didn’t live up to his offensive hype out of high school. But his defense was surprisingly good, and if he can get his 3-point percentage into at least the high 30s – it was a dreadful 29.4 percent last season – Florida’s offense will be quite potent.
14. ILLINOIS
Why they’re here: Last season was a disappointment that ended in the NIT, but Illinois’ core of G Demetri McCamey, C Mike Tisdale and F Mike Davis returns, and each is a senior. Tisdale and Davis, an imposing frontcourt duo, are a rarity in college basketball as senior big men. Beyond those key seniors, Illinois is looking for sophomore Gs D.J. Richardson and Brandon Paul to build on solid freshman seasons. The key player: The relationship between McCamey and coach Bruce Weber bears watching. When McCamey is on his game, he’s one of the best in the country. But he wasn’t consistent, as evidenced by 123 turnovers.
15. MISSOURI
Why they’re here: The Tigers are well-versed in coach Mike Anderson’s version of the “40 minutes of hell” defense, and they’ll again make life difficult for Big 12 foes. Mizzou forced a nation’s-high 659 turnovers last season, though some key defenders moved on. But the top three scorers are back, and G Kim English should get more national notice this season. The key player: Sophomore Michael Dixon should move into departed J.T. Tiller’s role as the Tigers’ point guard. Dixon did a nice job offensively last season and has the potential to be a solid 3-point shooter. But he needs to turn up the defensive intensity. He has the athleticism to do so.
16. BUTLER
Why they’re here: Butler lost star F Gordon Hayward to the NBA, but most of the other key players from last season’s NCAA runner-up return. G Shelvin Mack should develop into an All-America candidate in his junior season. If Butler keeps playing the type of defense it displayed in last season’s NCAA tournament, the Bulldogs should win the Horizon League and make a deep postseason run again. The key player: Senior F/C Matt Howard was the Horizon League player of the year two seasons ago, but his numbers dipped last season as he struggled with foul trouble. Now that Hayward is gone, Howard needs to recapture his 2008-09 production. If he can avoid fouls, Howard should team with Mack to give Butler one of the nation’s best inside-outside duos.
17. PURDUE
Why they’re here: The season-ending injury to F Robbie Hummel is not the end of the Boilermakers. F JaJuan Johnson and G E’Twaun Moore could be the best inside-outside duo in the Big Ten. Just as critical for the Boilers’ success are Lewis Jackson and Kelsey Barlow, who look to share the point guard spot. The key player: The replacement for Hummel will be a work-in-progress sophomore (Patrick Bade), a redshirt freshman (Sandi Marcus) and/or a true freshman (Travis Carroll). Junior G Ryne Smith might be just as important filling in for departed role players Chris Kramer and Keaton Grant. Smith will be a defensive specialist off the bench who also can shoot the 3-pointer.
18. MEMPHIS
Why they’re here: Last season, a depth-shy (and, frankly, talent-shy) Tigers team missed out on the NCAA tourney. That shouldn’t happen this season. Coach Josh Pastner brought in an ultra-talented freshman class, and if the newcomers mesh well with holdovers such as F Wesley Witherspoon, the Tigers can make a nice run in March. The key player: Freshman G Joe Jackson signed with the hometown Tigers out of high school, and it’ll be his job to make sure everyone stays on the same page. Jackson was a prolific scorer in high school, but he’ll have to worry more about getting his teammates shots than getting his points. He’ll still get his points, and we’re betting he does a nice job distributing the ball, too.
19. VIRGINIA TECH
Why they’re here: Virginia Tech returns nine of the top 10 scorers from a team that matched a school record with 25 wins last season. G Malcolm Delaney led the ACC in scoring last year, while F Jeff Allen is the ACC’s active career leader in rebounds, steals and blocks. Virginia Tech’s recent history of Selection Sunday disappointment should end this season. The key player: Perhaps no player in the ACC is more indispensible than Delaney. Not only did he lead the conference in scoring last season, he also ranked sixth in assists, third in free-throw percentage and fourth in minutes. He has the talent to lead Virginia Tech to an NCAA bid much in the same way Greivis Vasquez carried Maryland on his back last season.
20. TEMPLE
Why they’re here: Fran Dunphy has returned the Owls to the top of the Atlantic 10; last season, he guided the Owls to their best regular season (29-6) since 1987-88. The NCAA tournament is a different story, with three consecutive first-round losses. With the inside-outside duo of F Lavoy Allen (who averaged a double-double last season) and G Juan Fernandez, the Owls have what it takes to extend regular-season success into the NCAA tournament. The key player: G Ramone Moore averaged 16.1 points over a seven-game stretch in January and February. As unexpected and sudden as the hot streak started, it ended in the last month of the season. With Ryan Brooks gone, Moore will need to play at a high level over the course of the entire season to take some pressure off Fernandez.
21. WASHINGTON
Why they’re here: The Huskies helped the Pac-10 save face last season with a trip to the Sweet 16, and they look poised to be the class of the conference again. Undersized but high-scoring G Isaiah Thomas leads one of the best and deepest backcourts in the nation. The key player: F Matthew Bryan-Amaning emerged late last season, becoming one of Washington’s best players in the NCAA tournament. He’ll need to sustain that level of play through this season. He’s by far the Huskies’ best option in the frontcourt now that Quincy Pondexter is gone.
22. SAN DIEGO STATE
Why they’re here: The Aztecs return all five starters from a team that went 25-9 and won the Mountain West Conference tournament last season. Kawhi Leonard, Billy White and Malcolm Thomas give San Diego State one of the nation’s top frontcourts. In seasons when San Diego State coach Steve Fisher has returned at least four starters, his teams have won 72.6 percent of their games. The key player: Leonard earned first-team All-MWC honors as a freshman and could mature into an All-America candidate as a sophomore. He recorded 17 double-doubles last season and was the MVP of the MWC tournament. He was the only freshman from an NCAA tournament squad last year to lead his team in points and rebounds.
23. WEST VIRGINIA
Why they’re here: Bob Huggins‘ Mountaineers made a Final Four run last season, but they lost so much talent that another Final Four appearance is too much to ask. Still, WVU should be in the thick of the race in the Big East. Look for underrated F Kevin Jones to become the go-to guy; he’s a physical presence with a nice outside stroke. The key player: G Joe Mazzulla battled injuries last season, but he is a gritty floor leader who knows what Huggins wants done on both ends of the court. He is the epitome of a “glue guy,” and has the potential to average around 10 points and four assists.
24. WISCONSIN
Why they’re here: The NCAA tournament was a letdown, with the Badgers losing in the second round to Cornell, but Wisconsin has been remarkably consistent in the regular season under coach Bo Ryan. Wisconsin has won at least 10 Big Ten games in eight of the past nine seasons and reached the tournament in each of the past 12. The Badgers are an experienced group, led by versatile F Jon Leuer and PG Jordan Taylor. The key player: The departures of Trevon Hughes and Jason Bohannon mean freshmen will need to contribute at guard. Ben Brust can play either guard spot and shoot the “3.” Hughes and Bohannon combined to make 142 3-pointers last season. Taylor made 35.
25. TENNESSEE
Why they’re here: Freshman Tobias Harris arrives with copious press clippings, and he should provide an immediate offensive presence in the paint. His arrival means the Vols have enough talent to challenge for the SEC East title, but an ongoing NCAA investigation could take its toll. The key player: Junior G Scotty Hopson has shown flashes of stardom, but he has lacked consistency. This needs to be the season he breaks through. He is a silky-smooth player with big-time range, and his size (6-7) helps him overpower smaller defenders.