Missouri Jan 29 after watching 3 games

I watched them against Baylor and thought we had a sure bet here.  Watching them beat Baylor was like watching 5 birds chasing a cat away from their nesting area.  Everywhere Baylor turned there was another Missouri player making a shot, rebound or steal (19 turnovers forced).  They also drew fouls every time Baylor tried to get aggressive.  This game looked like it could rewrite the Big 12.  But reality hit Missouri after this game, as they blew their load to beat the Bears and had nothing left for Oklahoma State, especially late in the second half.  Ok State finished this game with a 26-12 run, showing just how much had been taken out of the vaunted “4 guard whirlwind of death”.  Denmon was only 4 for 16 shooting (although he did have 17 points).  And Phil Pressey who leads the big 12 in assists, only had 2 for this game.  They left a LOT on the floor in Waco. 

Then yesterday, they won against Texas Tech, but this is not your daddy’s Texas Tech.  This is a Texas Tech team that is 0 and 8, yes ZERO wins in the big 12 this season.  Yes, Missouri won the game, and yes they won by 13, but they should have run away with this game.  The oddsmakers had Missouri as a 24 point favorite in this game.  (the over under was 141.5 and total came in at 113).  Obviously the oddsmakers didnt realize how deflated Missouri was. 

The next two weeks will tell us a lot about Missouri and whether they bounce back from this week.  They have Texas next then Kansas, and on the 11th they play Baylor again, so there is plenty more opportunity for Missouri to convince me one way or the other. 

One quick thought, if they have a tough game in Round 1, betting against them might be a good Round 2 ticket to carry home on the plane with us.

Who will be crying as Cinderella stomps them with a glass slipper?

Of course, upsets aren’t just about one team. Upsets happen because the strength of the lower-seeded team matches up with the weakness of the higher seeded team. But without knowing who is playing who for another month, all we can do for now is identify teams who look primed for an upset. Here are three I’m hoping to see against one of my Cinderellas-in-waiting above.

Florida State Seminoles, ACC

I have to admit I’m rooting for the Seminoles to do well through the rest of their ACC slate just so they’ll get a higher seed and it will be a bigger upset when they lose. Seventeen teams over the past four years have come in with an adjusted offensive efficiency of less than 101.0. All 17 have flamed out in the first round. FSU’s adjusted offensive efficiency as of Monday? 100.52.

One other note: The last time the ACC made it through the first round without suffering an upset was 2006. In the four years since then, ACC teams have been on the losing end of seven first-round upsets, three by Clemson and one each by Florida State, Wake Forest, Duke, and Boston College. If I thought Clemson had a chance at making the tournament as a top eight seed, I’d just go with them. But since I don’t think that will happen, FSU seems like the best bet to continue the streak.

Missouri Tigers, Big 12

The Tigers don’t have a flameout stat profile, but this is a gut thing based on watching a good number of their games living St. Louis. The bottom line is the guards on this team just aren’t good enough. Marcus Denmon is doing his part, but Kim English has been so inconsistent coach Mike Anderson started bringing him off the bench in an attempt to get him to play more under control. In the Tigers’ five road conference losses, English has hit just 11 of his 43 shot attempts for a total of 37 points. Whenever the guy who takes the second most shots on your team ends up with less than a point per shot, that’s not good. It’s also not a real good thing when that same guy is a better shooter from three (44-112, .393) than from two (37-102, .363).

(And if you think I’m over-reacting to one guy’s performance, ask Notre Dame fans how thankful they are to finally escape the Tory Jackson era. The Irish lost as the higher seed twice in the three first round games while Jackson was in South Bend. Bad guard play kills you in the NCAA tournament.)

Connecticut Huskies, Big East

You just don’t know what you’re going to get from Kemba Walker. The average of 23.2 points per game looks great, but averages don’t win games. Consistency does. And Connecticut has no idea game by game whether Walker is going to go off for 30+, as he has six times this season, or whether he’s going to build a brick city like he did against Syracuse last week (3-14 FG, 8 points). Walker’s points per possession are the lowest of his career at 1.27, and that’s a problem when almost all of your other contributors are freshmen and sophomores.

Also, I know Roscoe Smith was a highly touted recruit and all, but he doesn’t attack on offense and he doesn’t rotate on defense. He just stands there and waits for something good to happen. It’s not entirely unexpected from an overmatched freshman forward making the jump into the Big East, but the fact he has played almost 65 percent of the minutes (26.5 mpg) is a bad sign that UConn has no better options. And when you combine weak post play with inconsistent guard play, that spells U-P-S-E-T.

SCOREFEST Kansas v Missouri

OVER UNDER on this game was 154, they blew it AWAY at 189. 

Take the Big 12’s highest-scoring teams, make them bitter rivals and put them on national television with a chance to shine and what do you get?

Plenty of offense and not much defense in No. 2 Kansas’ 103-86 victory over No. 19 Missouri on Monday night.

“I don’t know if there was a lot of defense played,” Missouri coach Mike Anderson. “But a lot of scoring took place.”

The Jayhawks (23-1, 8-1) started the game leading the nation in field goal percentage at 52 percent. On Monday, they shot at a 61 percent clip, and needed to, because Missouri (18-6, 4-5) hit a hot 52 percent.

We didn’t really guard them very well the entire night,” Kansas coach Bill Self said. “Of course, they’re quick.”

Marcus Morris had 22 points and reserve Mario Little added 17, sparking a second-half charge that enabled the Jayhawks to run away in the second half and post their 12th straight victory over their archrivals in Allen Fieldhouse.

Markieff Morris added 16 points for the Jayhawks, who have won at least 22 games for 23 consecutive seasons.

“Every time we run our offense, we feel like we are going to get a good look,” Little said. “Coach designs good plays. I think we have one of the best coaching staffs in the country. If we run our offense, I think we are going to get a good shot every time.”

Laurence Bowers, who fouled out with a little less than 5 1/2 minutes to go, had 19 points for Missouri and Phil Pressey had 17. The Tigers hit 7 of their first 9 shots in the first half and led by as many as six points before falling behind by four at halftime.

“When we went into halftime we really thought we were going to win this game,” Bowers said. “They went on a run … and the next thing we look up and we’re down 10. Then we’re down 15. Defensively, we didn’t do the things we were capable of. But offensively, we executed.”

By the time Little threw down a dunk for a 93-85 lead with a little more than 5 1/2 minutes left, the loud, sellout crowd was yelling for the 100.

With 2:34 left and much of the buzzing crowd on its feet, the Jayhawks whipped the ball around and got Tyrel Reed an open look for a 3-pointer from the wing that made it 100-84, triggering a deafening roar from 16,300 fans.

Marcus Morris had only five points in the first half but was 5 for 6 for 17 points in the second.

“Coach told me at halftime to play like an All-American, like people expect you to play,” he said. “So I just went out there and tried to play hard. These guys backed me up and they continued what they did in the first half and brought it in the second half.”

A basket by Bowers cut Missouri’s lead to 46-44 to start the second half, but then the Morris brothers personally led the Jayhawks on a 10-2 spree, starting with Marcus’ forceful putback. Marcus, fouled by Bowers, then converted a three-point play which was followed by Markieff’s putback. After Markieff rebounded a Missouri miss, Marcus converted with a turnaround jumper for a 56-46 lead.

The Morris twins combined for 15 rebounds for Kansas, which held a commanding 38-21 edge on the boards.

“Kansas is a team that can score and we are a team that can score,” Anderson said. “But I thought they really hit some tough shots.”

The play was rough, as usual between these schools whose rivalry dates to violent border clashes in pre-Civil War days. About halfway through the second half, an intentional foul was called on Markieff for an openhanded push off the face of Justin Safford.

Safford made both free throws to cut the lead to 65-58.

But Thomas Robinson’s two free throws sparked a 10-2 run by the Jayhawks, climaxed by 3-pointers from Little and Travis Releford for a 75-60 lead.

Tyshawn Taylor had 13 points for Kansas and Releford had 10. Robinson had nine points and seven rebounds.

Ricardo Ratliffe had 12 points on 5-for-5 shooting but was one of three Missouri players to foul out. Matt Pressey added 11 points.

Texas over Missouri

Even when their shots aren’t falling, these Longhorns are hard to beat.

No. 7 Texas (18-3, 6-0 Big 12) shot 55 percent from the field and made only 11 of 26 free throws in the second half but held on to defeat Missouri 71-58 Saturday night at the Erwin Center.

The 11th-ranked Tigers (17-4, 3-3) weren’t any better, shooting 33.9 percent from the field for the game. It was the lowest point total of the season for the conference’s top-scoring offense. “I think they’re one of the hottest teams in the country and tonight I think they showed why,” Missouri head coach Mike Anderson said about Texas.

Texas’ Jordan Hamilton led all scorers with 18 points. Gary Johnson finished with 15, surpassing the 1,000-point career benchmark at Texas when he hit a jumper with 5:41 to play in the first half.

But it was Texas’ defense that kept it in the game. The Longhorns once more held an opponent to its lowest point total of the season, after limiting Oklahoma State to 46 on Wednesday and Oklahoma to the same amount on Jan. 15. “We’re a good defensive team. That’s pretty much it,” said Texas forward Gary Johnson. “I think good defense beats good offense on any given night.” They got one block, from Tristan Thompson, and seven steals, creating eight points off turnovers and six more on fast breaks. The Longhorns also outrebounded their opponents 41-31.

The Tigers’ second-best rebounder, Laurence Bowers, left the game after suffering what appeared to be a head injury ten minutes into the contest. “That is probably seven less rebounds and 11 or 12 less points,” said Missouri’s Kim English. “He was definitely missed.”

Texas opened with a 10-0 run that had “the fastest 40 minutes in basketball” looking slow. Trying to live up to its self-proclaimed motto, Missouri ran a full-court trap most of the night, but the Longhorns were usually able to beat it with ball movement. The Tigers ended up with just two fast-break points. “They were averaging 23 points off turnovers coming in, so it also places a premium on taking care of the ball,” said Texas head coach Rick Barnes. The Longhorns built a 38-27 lead heading into halftime.

For how fast Texas started the game, poor shooting and turnovers allowed Missouri to shrink the deficit back within single digits in the second half. “It may have been the toughest game we’ve been through all year,” Barnes said. “When you have an 11 or 12 point lead against Missouri, it is not enough because they can be so explosive with their offense.” A 3-pointer from Missouri’s Michael Dixon cut the difference to seven with 10:40 left in the game. But J’Covan Brown and Cory Joseph both hit jumpers to put Texas up by 11 and the Tigers never threatened the lead again. The Longhorns pulled away to reach 6-0 in Big 12 play for the first time in program history. “We made a couple runs at ‘em but we just couldn’t quite get over the hump,” Anderson said. “We didn’t play some of our best basketball.” In addition to limiting Missouri’s scoring, the Texas defense held the Tigers to their lowest field-goal percentage, 3-pointer field-goal percentage (0.22) and assists (6) of the season. It took over five minutes for Missouri to score in the first half. “It was a really good win for us against a team that doesn’t quit,” Barnes said

Missouri

2010 Tournament Summary – Missouri was basically a pick em verse Clemson last year. They went on to win by 8.  Interestingly enough, Anderson lost his entire frontcourt in 2009. So it was somewhat surprising that he was in this spot. Their franetic pace with full-court pressure paid off.  One weakness was rebounding margin and they were only good in their half court defense.

2011 Outlook – Interesting year as Anderson loses top 3 defenders but gets back top 3 scorers… Brings in Paul Pressey’s twin kids and other solid recruits.  But Anderson’s system only has real staying power in the tournament if they can score in the post and rebound. Rebound for them means 7th in the Big 12 as their style wont let them get higher. Last year they were 11th.. watch this… if they are around 6 – 9 in rebounding, then they have a chance to be very good and they have incoming athletes that could allow this.

Rivals com top 25 preseason

Preseason top 25
1. DUKE
Why they’re here: Duke has perhaps the nation’s top returning player in F Kyle Singler, the Most Outstanding Player of last season’s Final Four. The arrivals of Liberty transfer Seth Curry and highly touted freshman Kyrie Irving should make up for the loss of All-America G Jon Scheyer in the backcourt. Duke also boasts arguably the nation’s best coach in Mike Krzyzewski. The key player: Irving arrives on campus as the No. 4 prospect in the 2010 recruiting class, and the Blue Devils need him to live up to his billing. Irving, Curry and All-America candidate Nolan Smith all have the ability to play either guard position, but Irving is the most natural point guard of the trio. Duke will need this freshman to play with the poise of an upperclassman by the time March rolls around.
2. MICHIGAN STATE
Why they’re here: The Spartans could be better than the team that reached its second consecutive Final Four last season. Michigan State made its tournament run with G Kalin Lucas on crutches and F Delvon Roe hobbled by injuries. F Draymond Green is Evan Turner-like in his versatility, and G Durrell Summers was the team MVP in March. The key player: Lucas had an up-and-down season because of injuries; he missed the Final Four run with a torn Achilles tendon. When healthy, he’s one of the best point guards in the country, but he missed the entire offseason rehabbing his injury.
3. KANSAS
Why they’re here: With freshman G Josh Selby, Kansas would be the favorite to win the Big 12. Selby is a do-it-all point guard, with tremendous athleticism. Team him with underrated PF Marcus Morris, and KU would have one of the best inside-outside duos in the nation. But while coach Bill Self has said he thinks Selby will play this season, the NCAA hasn’t officially ruled on his eligibility yet. Without Selby, KU is good – but it wouldn’t be this good. The key player: Obviously, it’s Selby. But even if Selby is eligible, G Tyshawn Taylor can’t be overlooked. He is a solid all-around player, and his defense and passing were strong last season. He seemingly can get to the rim against anybody, but Taylor must improve his outside stroke. If he becomes an adequate 3-point shooter, KU would become exceedingly tough to beat.
4. PITTSBURGH
Why they’re here: If there were any lingering doubts about coach Jamie Dixon‘s abilities, they ended last season. This has become a big-time program, one that re-loads and not rebuilds. G Ashton Gibbs is a big-timer, and Brad Wanamaker and Travon Woodall complete one of the better guard triumvirates in the nation. There also are a lot of big bodies up front that will help the Panthers play their aggressive and physical brand of defense. The key player: While the backcourt gets most of the attention, don’t sleep on the frontcourt. Keep an especially close eye on senior C Gary McGhee. He has the size and skill set to be a low-post enforcer on defense and a productive garbage man on offense. If he can push his scoring average to around 10 points – a jump of 3.1 from last season – coach Jamie Dixon would be happy.
5. OHIO STATE
Why they’re here: Do-everything swingman Evan Turner is gone, but the Buckeyes still have enough talent returning and arriving to make another run in the Big Ten. Freshman Jared Sullinger will step in and make an instant impact in the frontcourt. William Buford was perhaps underrated in Turner’s shadow; that won’t be the case anymore. The key player: The Buckeyes have plenty of guards (Buford, Jon Diebler), but no true point guard. Senior David Lighty, who played on a Final Four team as a freshman, could claim Turner’s role as the do-everything swingman.
6. KANSAS STATE
Why they’re here: Kansas will be a hot place to be this basketball season, what with the Jayhawks, Missouri Valley favorite Wichita State and these guys. The Wildcats fell to Butler in the Elite Eight last season, and the bulk of the key players are back, including potential All-America G Jacob Pullen. There also are some solid newcomers who will help K-State challenge Kansas for supremacy in the state and in the Big 12. The key player: F Wally Judge was the crown jewel of last season’s freshman class, but Judge never really seemed to adapt to the trappings of major-college ball. He certainly has all the physical tools. If he lives up to his high school hype, the Wildcats will have one of the best frontcourts in the nation, as he and fellow holdovers Curtis Kelly and Jamar Samuels will be joined by transfer Freddy Asprilla and freshman Nino Williams.
7. VILLANOVA
Why they’re here: Scottie Reynolds – a backcourt fixture for the Wildcats for, what, about 12 or 13 seasons? – is gone, but coach jay Wright still has one of the best backcourts around. Look for senior G Corey Fisher to become a star, and Dominic Cheek, Corey Stokes and Maalik Wayns lend ample backcourt support. Senior F Antonio Pena willingly does all the little things. The key player: Sophomore C Mouphtaou Yarou was sidelined by hepatitis B early last season and struggled to gain his footing once he was healthy. But he has the athleticism and skill level to be a defensive force, and he should be able to provide 10 or so points per game as well. Plus, with Yarou in the lineup, Pena can play power forward, his natural position.
8. SYRACUSE
Why they’re here: Wesley Johnson, Arinze Onuaku and Andy Rautins – all gone. But weep not for coach Jim Boeheim, who once again will be busy in March. Look for junior K Kris Joseph to make the jump from important reserve to go-to guy. Rich Jackson is a physical presence up front, and Scoop Jardine and Brandon Triche are solid combo guards. The key player: Freshman C Fab Melo arrives with a load of hype, and the 7-footer should be able to live up to most of it. His name is a perfect fit for Syracuse (come on – anyone named “Melo” has to play for the Orange), and his skills in the low post fit should fit perfectly with what this team needs.
9. BAYLOR
Why they’re here: The Bears were in the Elite Eight last season, and while they lost some key players from that team, there’s still some talent on hand. Most notably, G LaceDarius Dunn is back for his senior season. Dunn is one of the best offensive players in the nation. Big things are expected from true freshman F Perry Jones, an athletic big man who will score, rebound and block shots. The key player: Sophomore A.J. Walton will try to fill the shoes of departed PG Tweety Carter. Walton has good range and while he’s not likely to score as much as Carter (who averaged 15.0 points last season), he has the potential to be a double-figure scorer and a guy who gets four or five assists a night.
10. NORTH CAROLINA
Why they’re here: This ranking admittedly is a leap of faith, considering North Carolina failed to reach the NCAA tournament last season. But we’re betting freshman F Harrison Barnes immediately establishes himself as one of the nation’s top players, and that five-star prospect Reggie Bullock shores up the backcourt. We’re also counting on sophomore F John Henson to make major strides and C Tyler Zeller to stay healthy. The key player: The easy answer is to go with Barnes, but we’re betting he’s the real deal. We also could focus on the continued development of Henson and PG Larry Drew III. But it would really help the Tar Heels if Zeller could stay healthy for an entire season after being injured for large chunks of the past two. If he can play a full season, this highly skilled 7-footer could shore up a frontcourt that has plenty of star power but serious depth concerns.
11. GONZAGA
Why they’re here: Gonzaga returns four starters from a team that went 27-7 and advanced to the second round of the NCAA tournament last season. The Zags have a potential first-round draft pick in sophomore F Elias Harris, a legitimate 7-footer in Robert Sacre and a proven perimeter scorer in G Steven Gray. The key player: The Zags need more production from PG Demetri Goodson. Although Goodson technically was Gonzaga’s starting point guard last season, he had less than half as many assists as SG Matt Bouldin. Now that Bouldin has completed his college career, Goodson needs to emerge as more of a playmaker.
12. KENTUCKY
Why they’re here: The Wildcats are ranked this highly because, with freshman big man Enes Kanter, they will have excellent inside-outside balance and should win the SEC. One problem: Kanter’s eligibility is an issue, and he hasn’t even practiced with the team. He is the centerpiece of yet another fantastic recruiting class put together by John Calipari. The key player: If Kanter is eligible, it’ll be him, as he basically will be asked to be this season’s version of DeMarcus Cousins. If he isn’t eligible, freshman PG Brandon Knight – a big-time talent in his own right – will have more of the scoring responsibility. He and fellow freshman Doron Lamb should form a productive backcourt; how productive it will have to be depends on Kanter’s status.
13. FLORIDA
Why they’re here: All five starters are back from a team that lost in the first round of the NCAA tourney. Plus, there’s a solid group of freshman, headed by physical big man Patric Young. Senior F Chandler Parsons made huge strides last season, and his versatility at 6 feet 9 – he can hit the 3-pointer, as well as put the ball on the floor and get to the rim – is a key part of Florida’s offense. Backcourt depth potentially is a huge problem again, and some freshmen must come through on the perimeter. The key player: G Kenny Boynton struggled with his shot last season as a true freshman and didn’t live up to his offensive hype out of high school. But his defense was surprisingly good, and if he can get his 3-point percentage into at least the high 30s – it was a dreadful 29.4 percent last season – Florida’s offense will be quite potent.
14. ILLINOIS
Why they’re here: Last season was a disappointment that ended in the NIT, but Illinois’ core of G Demetri McCamey, C Mike Tisdale and F Mike Davis returns, and each is a senior. Tisdale and Davis, an imposing frontcourt duo, are a rarity in college basketball as senior big men. Beyond those key seniors, Illinois is looking for sophomore Gs D.J. Richardson and Brandon Paul to build on solid freshman seasons. The key player: The relationship between McCamey and coach Bruce Weber bears watching. When McCamey is on his game, he’s one of the best in the country. But he wasn’t consistent, as evidenced by 123 turnovers.
15. MISSOURI
Why they’re here: The Tigers are well-versed in coach Mike Anderson’s version of the “40 minutes of hell” defense, and they’ll again make life difficult for Big 12 foes. Mizzou forced a nation’s-high 659 turnovers last season, though some key defenders moved on. But the top three scorers are back, and G Kim English should get more national notice this season. The key player: Sophomore Michael Dixon should move into departed J.T. Tiller’s role as the Tigers’ point guard. Dixon did a nice job offensively last season and has the potential to be a solid 3-point shooter. But he needs to turn up the defensive intensity. He has the athleticism to do so.
16. BUTLER
Why they’re here: Butler lost star F Gordon Hayward to the NBA, but most of the other key players from last season’s NCAA runner-up return. G Shelvin Mack should develop into an All-America candidate in his junior season. If Butler keeps playing the type of defense it displayed in last season’s NCAA tournament, the Bulldogs should win the Horizon League and make a deep postseason run again. The key player: Senior F/C Matt Howard was the Horizon League player of the year two seasons ago, but his numbers dipped last season as he struggled with foul trouble. Now that Hayward is gone, Howard needs to recapture his 2008-09 production. If he can avoid fouls, Howard should team with Mack to give Butler one of the nation’s best inside-outside duos.
17. PURDUE
Why they’re here: The season-ending injury to F Robbie Hummel is not the end of the Boilermakers. F JaJuan Johnson and G E’Twaun Moore could be the best inside-outside duo in the Big Ten. Just as critical for the Boilers’ success are Lewis Jackson and Kelsey Barlow, who look to share the point guard spot. The key player: The replacement for Hummel will be a work-in-progress sophomore (Patrick Bade), a redshirt freshman (Sandi Marcus) and/or a true freshman (Travis Carroll). Junior G Ryne Smith might be just as important filling in for departed role players Chris Kramer and Keaton Grant. Smith will be a defensive specialist off the bench who also can shoot the 3-pointer.
18. MEMPHIS
Why they’re here: Last season, a depth-shy (and, frankly, talent-shy) Tigers team missed out on the NCAA tourney. That shouldn’t happen this season. Coach Josh Pastner brought in an ultra-talented freshman class, and if the newcomers mesh well with holdovers such as F Wesley Witherspoon, the Tigers can make a nice run in March. The key player: Freshman G Joe Jackson signed with the hometown Tigers out of high school, and it’ll be his job to make sure everyone stays on the same page. Jackson was a prolific scorer in high school, but he’ll have to worry more about getting his teammates shots than getting his points. He’ll still get his points, and we’re betting he does a nice job distributing the ball, too.
19. VIRGINIA TECH
Why they’re here: Virginia Tech returns nine of the top 10 scorers from a team that matched a school record with 25 wins last season. G Malcolm Delaney led the ACC in scoring last year, while F Jeff Allen is the ACC’s active career leader in rebounds, steals and blocks. Virginia Tech’s recent history of Selection Sunday disappointment should end this season. The key player: Perhaps no player in the ACC is more indispensible than Delaney. Not only did he lead the conference in scoring last season, he also ranked sixth in assists, third in free-throw percentage and fourth in minutes. He has the talent to lead Virginia Tech to an NCAA bid much in the same way Greivis Vasquez carried Maryland on his back last season.
20. TEMPLE
Why they’re here: Fran Dunphy has returned the Owls to the top of the Atlantic 10; last season, he guided the Owls to their best regular season (29-6) since 1987-88. The NCAA tournament is a different story, with three consecutive first-round losses. With the inside-outside duo of F Lavoy Allen (who averaged a double-double last season) and G Juan Fernandez, the Owls have what it takes to extend regular-season success into the NCAA tournament. The key player: G Ramone Moore averaged 16.1 points over a seven-game stretch in January and February. As unexpected and sudden as the hot streak started, it ended in the last month of the season. With Ryan Brooks gone, Moore will need to play at a high level over the course of the entire season to take some pressure off Fernandez.
21. WASHINGTON
Why they’re here: The Huskies helped the Pac-10 save face last season with a trip to the Sweet 16, and they look poised to be the class of the conference again. Undersized but high-scoring G Isaiah Thomas leads one of the best and deepest backcourts in the nation. The key player: F Matthew Bryan-Amaning emerged late last season, becoming one of Washington’s best players in the NCAA tournament. He’ll need to sustain that level of play through this season. He’s by far the Huskies’ best option in the frontcourt now that Quincy Pondexter is gone.
22. SAN DIEGO STATE
Why they’re here: The Aztecs return all five starters from a team that went 25-9 and won the Mountain West Conference tournament last season. Kawhi Leonard, Billy White and Malcolm Thomas give San Diego State one of the nation’s top frontcourts. In seasons when San Diego State coach Steve Fisher has returned at least four starters, his teams have won 72.6 percent of their games. The key player: Leonard earned first-team All-MWC honors as a freshman and could mature into an All-America candidate as a sophomore. He recorded 17 double-doubles last season and was the MVP of the MWC tournament. He was the only freshman from an NCAA tournament squad last year to lead his team in points and rebounds.
23. WEST VIRGINIA
Why they’re here: Bob Huggins‘ Mountaineers made a Final Four run last season, but they lost so much talent that another Final Four appearance is too much to ask. Still, WVU should be in the thick of the race in the Big East. Look for underrated F Kevin Jones to become the go-to guy; he’s a physical presence with a nice outside stroke. The key player: G Joe Mazzulla battled injuries last season, but he is a gritty floor leader who knows what Huggins wants done on both ends of the court. He is the epitome of a “glue guy,” and has the potential to average around 10 points and four assists.
24. WISCONSIN
Why they’re here: The NCAA tournament was a letdown, with the Badgers losing in the second round to Cornell, but Wisconsin has been remarkably consistent in the regular season under coach Bo Ryan. Wisconsin has won at least 10 Big Ten games in eight of the past nine seasons and reached the tournament in each of the past 12. The Badgers are an experienced group, led by versatile F Jon Leuer and PG Jordan Taylor. The key player: The departures of Trevon Hughes and Jason Bohannon mean freshmen will need to contribute at guard. Ben Brust can play either guard spot and shoot the “3.” Hughes and Bohannon combined to make 142 3-pointers last season. Taylor made 35.
25. TENNESSEE
Why they’re here: Freshman Tobias Harris arrives with copious press clippings, and he should provide an immediate offensive presence in the paint. His arrival means the Vols have enough talent to challenge for the SEC East title, but an ongoing NCAA investigation could take its toll. The key player: Junior G Scotty Hopson has shown flashes of stardom, but he has lacked consistency. This needs to be the season he breaks through. He is a silky-smooth player with big-time range, and his size (6-7) helps him overpower smaller defenders.