March 7 article who will get seeded too LOW?

Murray State Racers

The Racers are simply as good as their record would indicate. The 30-1 team has played two ranked teams this year — one on the road — and won both times. They can play both up-tempo and half-court styles when they need to, and can absolutely shoot lights out when their backs are against the wall. They’ve proven in the past to be a resilient bunch in the tournament, and don’t expect anything different this year. If they’re seeded below 4, you may want to pencil them in for a “surprise” Sweet 16 bid.

Murray state OVERVIEW to balance Wardo’s game watch notes

Against everyone else it has played this season, Murray State has looked extraordinary. Two of the three times, the Racers have faced Tennessee State, they’ve looked rather ordinary.

Tennessee State handed the Racers their only loss of the season Feb. 9 by winning 72-68 at Murray State. The Tigers almost beat Murray State for the second time in three attempts Saturday.

So perhaps we shouldn’t make too much about Murray State’s struggles against Tennessee State. Maybe this was just a bad matchup. The Racers don’t necessarily deserve a No. 2 seed, but they remain a dangerous postseason team, particularly if they open the tournament in Nashville or Louisville.

Both those cities are within driving distance of Murray State’s campus, and Racers fans clearly have no qualms about getting on the road to support their team. Consider that they made up about 90 percent of the crowd Saturday, even though the game was played about three miles from Tennessee State’s campus.

“I just want proximity,” Prohm, who is in his first season as coach, said when he discussed his team’s potential seed. “Nashville, Louisville, somewhere our fans can support us.”

Murray State certainly has much in common with most of the other mid-major or low-major teams that have made noise in previous NCAA tournaments.

They generally have quality point guards, and Murray State has one of the nation’s best in 6-foot junior Isaiah Canaan. He averages nearly 20 points per game and has made almost half his 3-point attempts.

More often than not, the low- and mid-major surprises also have the kind of 3-point shooting that assures they’re never out of a game. Canaan and senior guard Donte Poole have made a combined 160 shots from beyond the arc this season.

And those teams usually have quite a bit of experience. Murray State’s starting lineup has three seniors and two juniors. Each of the five played at least five minutes in the Racers’ 66-65 NCAA tournament upset of Vanderbilt two years ago. And that senior leadership meant plenty Saturday when all hope looked lost.

Murray State allowed just two points in the final 5½ minutes to answer one of the biggest questions facing this team: Could it win a close game by coming from behind down the stretch?

This marked only the second time all season that Murray State had trailed with five minutes left. The only other instance was in the regular-season loss to Tennessee State.

Murray State proved it could succeed in these types of situations by relying on the suffocating man-to-man defense that long has defined this program, which is making its 15th NCAA appearance.

“We’ve played one possession of zone defense this whole season and gave up a ‘3’ in Alaska against San Francisco,” Prohm said. “We haven’t played zone since.”

The other concern surrounding Murray State is a lack of size, which could prove fatal if it gets matched up against a team with a dominant big man. The Racers don’t have any starters taller than 6-7. The tallest player in their rotation is 6-9 junior forward Brandon Garrett, who played just six minutes against Tennessee State.

Tennessee State outrebounded Murray State 34-24 and had success working the ball to 6-9 forward Robert Covington and 6-7 forward Kellen Thornton, who combined for 25 points.

Who knows what might have happened if Covington hadn’t picked up his fourth foul with 14:47 remaining? Tennessee State led 38-31 when Covington went to the bench. By the time he returned 6 1/2 minutes later, Murray State was up 43-40.

Murray State conf final over Tenn State

Wardo watch notes

SLOPPY.  They were sloppy on O and on D.  They were somewhat panicked when they were down by a lot and did not seem to handle the pressure well.  Im not saying they will lose in the first round, but they will probably get a lot more credit than they deserve, and therefore they may not cover the spread.  They did not really play anyone (Memphis was their most quality win). 

I dont buy the hype on these guys this year. Then again, maybe it is just because I only watched them in this game where they played horrible.  Ill post excerpts from an article kind of balancing my thoughts with the full season view in a separate post.

Murray State Point Spread notes

They were 15-11 against the spread.  When they were getting major credit for being the only undefeated team in Div 1, the money was pushing their point spreads way beyond what they were capable of achieving.  They FAILED to cover in 8 of the 9 games before they finally actually did LOSE a game (their 9th failure to cover in the 10 games).  This means the betting money was buying the hype on them and betting too hard on them, causing the spreads to be out of whack.  The line was being set over 10 for all but 2 of those 10 games, (the one they covered was at 5 and the other one under 10 was a line of 7.5 that they failed to cover against Morehead State (they won by 6)). 

Now, once they LOST an actual game, the lines fell back to Earth, all of their games since the loss went off at lines less than 10 except the first game after the loss, which was 10 (and they covered).  In theory, the “hype betters” stopped throwing money on them.  At the same time, they have covered in all 6 of these games since they lost.  (They are favored by 7 today, so the spread is still under 10). 

Depending on their first round matchup and the hype of their “story” this season, this information will be important to know.

Early Cinderella picks article Murray State Jan 29

They stand alone as the only undefeated team in Division I, but don’t let anyone fool you, the Racers are legit. Two intangibles stand out with Murray State. First, you have to like a team who has crashed the dance in recent times, which the Racers did two short seasons ago (they were a basket away from ending Butler’s run much earlier). Second, come March, you have to like teams with a solid point guard, and the Racers have that in junior Isaiah Canaan. Given also that Murray State has quality depth in terms of good shooters, and they’re going to be a tough out, no matter the seeding.

Murray State

Guards will attack and jump into the body of bigs. Canaan will shoot from the exit door and make it. He is not to be taken lightly as he can create and score the most awkward shots. Close game, I think he is money. Their offense seemed to be to spread the floor, attack off the dribble (which they do well) and then crash the boards big time. Their bigs were active but underwhelming to me.  They hustle and move including a kid with a huge fro (like the style). They were without their best big in this game Ivan Aska. He will be back in 1 month (start of February).

I want to not like this team.. but I cant. They have a few flashy and quick guards who can break you down and score. Only thing I did notice in this game was, despite decent defense, their overplay led to several back door scoring opportunities for Tenn Tech.

3/3 Championship game… if you turn the ball over against them.. you are in trouble.

Murray State 2012

Murray State does seem to have a lot of talent, but I question if this team is a bit too one dimensional to survive a strong challenger. 

Isaiah Canaan scored 35 points to keep No. 19 Murray State unbeaten with an 87-75 victory Saturday night over Austin Peay. He scored the first 16 points for the Racers (16-0, 4-0), He hit seven of his eight 3-point attempts.

Without his 35 points, Murray State would have barely cleared 50.  7 of 8 from 3 land is not something that should be counted as automatic, especially in games against stronger teams (AP is only 3-13, 0-3 in conf).  This wouldnt be important except that when AP succeeded in shutting Canaan down, the rest of MSU didnt seem to be able to carry the slack.  AP came back at times when they successfully controlled Canaan through double teams, etc.  Murray State still did OK (but again this was against a 3-13 team). 

Any team in the tourney that can contain Canaan should beat Murray State by a good margin.  If they play someone not talented at keeping him down, the outcome could be a lot closer if not an outright win for MSU and I would expect an OVER victory.

Murray State

Team I loved last year and barely lost to Butler in the second round has a realy solid 3 guard lineup. This is the same guards that led them to the second round of the tournament last year. They are very well coached and play a very aggressive overplay defense. They did lose the 6’9 center that made them potentially special last year. The replacements are 6’7 and good, but they are down here. I hate to say it, because I like this team and program, but this is not the same team as last year. Could they surprise, yes, but last year they came in and I was looking to bet on them.. I dont feel that way this year.

It’s hard to go back-to-back,” said guard B.J. Jenkins. “Look at the Lakers right now. We knew this wasn’t the same team as last year. We were 31-5, had three game-winning shots, hit a shot from the knees (Isaiah Canaan’s memorable half-court heave). … Stuff like that don’t happen all the time. It just was a special team.”

Thursday night against Morehead State, the Racers started to look special again.

Their super-quick, athletic and physical defense frazzled the Eagles. Their perimeter shooting was locked in (9-of-17 from 3-point range). And they shared the ball impressively.

“It’s the most talented, deepest team in the league,” Morehead coach Donnie Tyndall said. “The backcourt is one of the 10 best in college basketball. … They’re a great defensive team, the way they converge on you. They keep you sped up, they keep you hurried.”

Murray hurried Morehead into a near-total meltdown in the final 2 ½ minutes of the first half and the first six minutes of the second. In that time, the Racers laid a crushing 31-4 run on the Eagles, going from six down to 21 up and putting the game out of reach.