2012 New Mexico

Interesting team! They returned everyone except their point guard including key bench players and this from a team that won 22 games last year! A few notes that I took:

Positives: They seem to like to get out in transition. That is where they offense seemed most comfortable. In the half court, I felt they were only decent. This is a seasoned team who will not be easily shaken. Drew Gordon, UCLA transfer,  is a potential first round draft pick if he stays healthy. He is big and he is very athletic.

Opportunities: Their bigs are kinda a fraud to me. Not – mid-major 6’9 100 pound fraud – but 2nd round, 3rd round fraud and yes.. they could get that far. Drew Gordon is NOT a low post loving guy. He is a step out, drive, rebound guy and he is really good in transition. He is an athlete. Others around him are scrappy, but not awesome to me. Also, I noticed this, but Doug Gottlieb also said that this team really doesn’t have anyone that can break you down and create their own shot.

Bilas January: The Lobos do most everything well. They are solid defensively and have a varied offensive attack, confusing teams with an array of speeds. Drew Gordon is a double-double guy in the post and is very consistent, but 6-foot-7 guard Tony Snell is Steve Alford’s best player. The Lobos play with a chip on their shoulders, and are looking for respect. I like that. They can get that respect with wins over San Diego State and UNLV this week.

Feb 25 Jay Bilas: Steve Alford’s team has been a terror on the defensive end, and Drew Gordon has been the most productive big man in the country over the past week. Gordon has grabbed 50 rebounds in the last three games, and New Mexico has taken control of the Mountain West. KenPom.com has been on the Lobos from the start and has valued Steve Alford’s squad over the Bilas Index for a while now. New Mexico’s defense is stellar, but I had kept New Mexico lower because of a lack of offense. Drew Gordon has gone from double-double guy to monster, putting up 17 points and 17 rebounds against San Diego State and 27 points and 20 rebounds against UNLV. In the past three games, Gordon has grabbed 50 rebounds. New Mexico was poised to crack the top 25 a month ago but got beat by San Diego State and UNLV back to back. No more. The secret is out.

Feb 27: Let’s hear it for TCU! A round of applause is most definitely in order. At this time in 2011, the Horned Frogs were in the midst of a season-ending 13-game losing streak, en route to an 11-22 finish. This season is an entirely different story: TCU is playing its best basketball down the stretch, having won four of its past five (and eight in a row at home) and toppling ranked UNLV and New Mexico and a good Colorado State squad in the process. The key: great 3-point shooting. The Horned Frogs lead the league in long-range makes in conference play, and they’re undefeated at home as a result. What a difference a year makes.

In the meantime … um, what happened to New Mexico? Last Saturday, we watched in near-awe as the Lobos thoroughly dominated UNLV, which came just a few days after a 10-point win at San Diego State. Steve Alford’s team, once a relatively unheralded efficiency darling with few good wins to show for it, looked set to run away with the Mountain West and make a deep run into March. Since then, the Lobos are 0-2 and are now in a three-way tie. A loss at Colorado State makes some sense; we know the Rams are tough, particularly at home. And this is not to take away from TCU, which (as you just read above) is giving everyone more than they bargained for in February, particularly in their own building. But a 19-point blowout loss? Isn’t this the team that just rolled UNLV in the Pit and moved to 8-2 in the league? It’s kind of weird, right?

3/5:

Here are the top 10 potential Giant Killers, rated on a scale from 0 to 100 by our 2012 statistical model. These are the highest scores among all eligible teams, whether they are already in the NCAA tournament, working their way through conference championships or awaiting word about their bids. We will get to actual head-to-head odds once we know actual tournament seedings. Also, this is a lot more detailed than we’re going to go into for Giants. You probably know a thing or seven about Syracuse and Kentucky already. This is your chance to keep diving into what could make less famous teams Killer material — and to figure out which schools to root for in the week leading up to Selection Sunday.

 

New Mexico Lobos (36.5): The Lobos’ defense exhausts opponents, clamping down on the perimeter (opponents are shooting just 30.6 percent on 3s …) while choking off inside shots (… and just 42.7 percent on 2s). Meanwhile, New Mexico is highly dangerous from outside (38.6 percent on 3-point attempts, 25th in the NCAA) but still crashes the boards (offensive rebounds on 34.9 percent of misses, ranking 72nd). That’s a profile for a Killer as complete as Anton Chigurh.

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New Mexico

2010 Tournament Summary – Stats said they were giving too many points to Montana and they only won by five on a spread of 9.  They were handed a 3 seed and silently disappointed. Really a guard oriented team with 6+ players who played guard. Super Soph Darington Hobson led the way. Ver yundersized down low, they had a senior glue guy who hustled. They were an unselfish team and had ZERO injuries. Same starting lineup every game. They did win a lot of games in grinds.

2011 Outlook – Lost probably their two most important players but they get Drew Gordon from UCLA, Arizona State guard, and Tennessee Forward to replace them. This could actually be a better team this year if they can find clutch performers to replace Hobson.

My notes: In retrospect, I missed a lot of components when analyzing New Mexico last year. I never loved this team and I did not think they were great. I got caught up in the Mountain West craze. Truth be told, only San Diego State is the real deal in this conference. New Mexico has the chance to be better this year than last. That said, they wont be a3 seed with a powder puff matchup that they barely win. Dont judge them until January because that is when they get Drew Gordan from UCLA eligible. They could be good, but I would initially default to marginal. November perspective is probably over-rated and loses first round verse decent major team.