Article surprises and disappointments (Disappointments)

Mild Disappointments

1. Michigan State — Thought by many to be title contenders this year, the Spartans are projected to earn only an 11 seed into the tournament. Of course, anything can happen in March. Purdue is the only test left on the schedule, but the conference tournament will be a test in the stacked Big Ten.

2. Kansas State — Came out like gangbusters in the beginning of the year, but early losses to Duke and Florida, and narrow victories over Washington State and Loyola (Ill.) marked the decline of the Wildcats heading into Big 12 play. Originally projected as a No. 2 seed into the tournament, now they’re looking at a potential No. 11, unless they can run the table at the conference tournament.

3. Memphis — Expected to easily win the Conference USA title and earn a No. 3 seed into the tournament, the Tigers are tied for fourth in the conference and are projected to be an 11 seed in March. A game at league-leading UTEP is the only significant game on the schedule heading into the conference tournament.

4. Oklahoma State — Another Big 12 team with tournament expectations, the Cowboys were projected to be a No. 11 seed in March after being there last year. But they are near the bottom of the conference standings and don’t have the non-conference resume’ to land an at-large bid. But they could help themselves with a strong showing in the Big 12 tournament.

5. Mississippi State — Predicted to win the SEC West division title and earn a No. 9 seed into the tournament, the Bulldogs are four games behind Alabama in the division standings and barely over .500 in their overall record. While Tennessee is the only really good team left on the schedule, MSU will probably have to reach the conference tournament title game to get a spot in the Big Dance.

Major Disappointments

1. Gonzaga — The Bulldogs were “probable” WCC title contenders this year with a projected No. 4 seed going into March Madness, but with St. Mary’s in the conference lead, the Zags’ only hope for a 13-straight tournament appearance will be a conference tournament title.

2. Butler — After last year’s championship game appearance, many thought the Bulldogs would reload this year and enter March as high as a No. 4 seed. But they, too, will need to win their conference tournament as the Horizon may not be strong enough to land an at-large berth, although Cleveland State and Valparaiso are as tough as anyone in the country — which is why Butler has struggled to run away with the league.

3. Illinois — Projected to finish fourth in the Big Ten and earn a No. 5 seed into the tournament, the Illini are right where they were expected to be in the standings, but could miss the Big Dance altogether. Games left include one at league-leading Ohio State and another at second-place Purdue. It will take a high finish in the conference tournament to get the Illini a March bid.

4. Wichita State — The Shockers were projected to win the Missouri Valley Conference title and, therefore, get the automatic bid into the Big Dance, as high as a No. 7 seed. But they’re currently behind Missouri State in the standings and will need to win the conference title to get the bid in March.

5. North Carolina State — Expected to be a No. 8 seed into the tournament and the fourth-place finisher in the ACC, the Wolfpack are clearly out of the running with a 4-8 conference record and just 14-12 overall. Like with many other teams, it will take a conference tournament title to get them into the Big Dance.

Kansas State struggles (article after Okla State loss)

Kansas State entered the 2010-11 campaign ranked as high as No. 2 in some preseason polls. These days, though, Frank Martin’s team doesn’t even look good enough to finish in the top half of the Big 12. Saturday’s 76-62 loss at Oklahoma State marked the third setback for the Wildcats in their last six games. And with red-hot Colorado coming to Manhattan on Wednesday, things could get worse before they get better. But back to Saturday’s game: There’s certainly no shame in losing to Oklahoma State in Stillwater – unless you’re the preseason pick to win the league and the setback comes by 14 points. Oklahoma State, at best, is a mid-level Big 12 team that entered the game without a single victory over a quality opponent. Less than two weeks ago the Cowboys lost to unranked Gonzaga by 19 points. But Travis Ford’s squad didn’t have too much trouble against Kansas State, which showed little toughness down the stretch by squandering an eight-point lead with 10 minutes remaining. The defeat clearly rattled the Wildcats, who left Gallagher-Iba Arena without speaking to reporters. One of Kansas State’s biggest problems continues to be a lack of production in the paint. All four of the Wildcats’ big men fouled out of Saturday’s game. That includes Jamar Samuels and Wally Judge, who combined for just 12 points and committed five turnovers each. Granted, Kansas State is playing without standout forward Curtis Kelly, who is serving a suspension for receiving discounted items from a local clothing store. But the return of Kelly may not be enough to solve all of Kansas State’s ills. Martin has complained all season that his team is immature and lacks a pure leader. The Wildcats better find one – fast – or a season that began with such high expectations could end in major disappointment.

Oklahoma State

2010 Tournament Summary: Playing Georgia Tech, stats said bet Tech and they were right. They had a poor shooting night with their 4 guard lineup and stated that “They were a much more physical team than I had seen on tape. Very physical, very aggressive,” coach Travis Ford said. “They were able to take us out of some of our offensive things being aggressive.” They also turned the ball over like crazy.

2011 Outlook: They return their frontcourt that I liked last year. There was a workman like tenacity to Pilgrim and Moses. Add in 6’8 JC transfer Williams and they should be fine on the front line. Keiton Page returns but he has 2 new running mates. One, a touted sophmore scorer who needs to .. well score .. in Ray Penn.. and an incoming Freshman Markel Brown who is supposed to be a fantastic scorer. All-in-all a more athletic and deeper team that should allow Travis Ford to run an uptempo pace he likes.

Game Notes: Gottlieb 12/6: One coach said, “Page is the key on the perimeter. You have to chase him everywhere because he can really shoot, but when you do he is their best passer. Their bigs are grown men, but [Matt] Pilgrim is a head case, just look at the elbow he threw [against Virginia Tech]. He just goes crazy if he does not get a call or something doesn’t go his way.”

Vs Kansas State ESPN NOTES: In my view, Oklahoma State has several bruisers in Pilgrim and Moses. Plus they play great defense… here is the notes from ESPN… I will temper this with the fact that KState is strugging and without All AMerican Curtis who is suspended.. so the team is kind of in turmoil. … NOTES: “The one constant with our bigs, which I’m unhappy again today, it’s a twofold thing: turnovers on offense, lack of defensive rebounding,” Wildcats coach Frank Martin said. “If you look, that’s what we had today. Our front line had turnovers on offense and very little defensive rebounds.” Jamar Samuels and Wally Judge, starting in Kelly’s place, each had five of K-State’s 21 turnovers and combined for nine rebounds in 51 minutes. Both fouled out, along with reserves Freddy Asprilla and Jordan Henriquez-Roberts. “Their guys drive the ball from the wing to the rim. We don’t rotate, we don’t take charges, we just kind of whack guys. Those are bad fouls,” Martin said.

My Notes Vs KState: The Cowboys are really starting to get a nice rotation inside and out. Inside, they start the attacking, edgy, play with attitude front court of Pilgrim and Moses. Expect them to attack, hustle, and come at you. They run Olikemby off the bench and he is an incredible athlete and can score. On the outside they have Penn running point and Keaton as the 2. This is meh.. for me.. Keaton is struggling to find his role.. he is not 100% of the center of attention.. and Penn is good defensively but couldnt find his niche on offense. This team wants to run inside out, but they are really inside inside. They only hit 31% from the three and their guards seem to be finding their way. Also, I thought that KState found open threes. The Cowboys really relaxed in the lane and this did allow them to have open looks. Summary though is that I like this team. If Keaton can hit the threes, this team could be VERY dangerous. They attacked and kicked KStates big mens but so you better have a lot of bigs if you play man-man against them.

Notes from last years tourney loss: Anderson, the nation’s third-leading scorer, was just 3 of 12 for 11 pointsOklahoma State’s second-best scorer, wasn’t any better with 10 points. And the 3-pointers that have carried the Cowboys all season disappeared. They were just 6 of 22 from long range, including 0 of 6 for Anderson, well below their 35 percent average.  ”They were a much more physical team than I had seen on tape. Very physical, very aggressive,” coach Travis Ford said. “They were able to take us out of some of our offensive things being aggressive.” Made the Cowboys cough up the ball, too. After just three turnovers in the first half, Oklahoma State had eight in the second.