Old Dominion

Old Dominion Monarchs (19-12, 13-5, RPI: 115, BPI: 102, KenPom.com: 84)
Kill skills: This might be the most interesting team of the bunch. The Monarchs are yet another defense-first team, but their disparity is staggering, ranking 21st in the nation in defensive efficiency, but 193rd in offensive efficiency. ODU forces turnovers on 23.4 percent of possessions (33rd), holds opponents to offensive rebounds on just 29.3 percent of possessions (58th) and steals the ball 13.6 percent of the time (sixth). But that’s offset by an offense that is putrid from the arc (31.6 percent, 288th), gives the ball right back (21.0 turnover percentage, 213th) and hits only 62.1 percent of its free throws. The Monarchs’ saving grace? They grab 39 percent of available offensive boards, ranking 11th in the nation. Those numbers help explain how they kept things close in single-digit losses to Kentucky and Missouri, and it will be fascinating to see how our model interprets all that conflicting data.

Jan 8 Cinderella pick article Old Dominion

Old Dominion Monarchs

With Jim Larranaga off to Miami, Blaine Taylor is one of the gold standards in the CAA. The Monarchs have also been a mainstay in the postseason, with four NCAA and one NIT showing in the last seven years. Unlike VCU, the Monarchs have built their brand on tough, half-court, rebounding-minded philosophy. This strategy can keep teams in many games.

Old Dom over VCU

Old Dom won, which is sad because of 2 reasons.  I wanted 3 teams from this conference to get in to the dance, and also I wanted a coach named SHAKA to be in the tourney!  Old Dom 27-6 season, but 14-14 against the spread.  NVG baby, NVG.  12 unders and 15 overs. 

Played some good teams, lost to Georgetown by only 3.  They also lost to Missouri. Beat Clemson, Xavier, Richmond, Cleveland State.  They split the series with VCU (before this tourney victory) and also split with George Mason, who will probably get an at-large bid even after losing to VCU in this conf tourney (as a possible 8-11 seed, which Old Dom should be as well, maybe a 12).  This conference has 6 teams that won 20 games, the only other conference with that stat is the Big East. 

Allow only 58 points per game.  Number 1 rebounding team in the nation.  Showed no frustration or concern as VCU closed the gap late in the game.  In fact, they almost looked bored with the VCU 26-9 run.  The crowd was going CRAZY and Old Dom just stayed poised and relaxed, kept getting the important rebounds and forcing some bad shots from VCU and kept the lead as VCU threw everything they had at them.  I watched this 2^nd half twice, once not knowing the outcome, and I thought VCU was going to come back because Old Dom looked so relaxed, but it worked for them.  The second time, I could just see them almost thinking to themselves “relax”….  (I love DVRs). 

Their offense struggles some, but they shot 58% in this game.

We also may not get much betting value if they are given an 8 or 9 seed, and because Old Dom has some Cinderella history that people think will happen again.  The spread may be less favorable than we would like, esp given their season 14-14 ATS.

mid field possible upsets part 5 Old Dominion

The Monarchs were a fairly trendy pick to make the tourney early in the season. Now, they’ll have to catch up, so to speak, with George Mason winning the league title. If seedings hold, ODU gets their rubber match against the Patriots for a guaranteed spot in the NCAAs. I believe they’ll get that rematch and take full advantage of that chance.

If they should make the tournament, keep an eye on them. The Monarchs have already taken down tournament hopefuls Clemson, Xavier, and Richmond. ODU also lost a one-possession game to Georgetown in the season opener. They have a nice one-two punch with Frank Hassell and Kent Bazemore, plus experience throughout the roster.

Upset potential: Second round

Old Dom is 24-6 on 3/3, but only 13-13 against the spread.   NVG

Bracketbusters article cut to team info

The big winners were Utah State, who beat St. Mary’s on the road, and the Colonial’s potential three-bid triumvirate of VCU, Old Dominion, and George Mason. The predominant losers in the TV games were the MVC’s Wichita State, Missouri State plus the aforementioned Gaels out of the WCC. All three would be well-advised to win their conference tournaments as a result if they want to play in the NCAA Tournament.

However, there were more losers that didn’t come close to any airtime.

The CAA’s success at the hands of Wichita State, Missouri State, and Cleveland State likely confined the Missouri Valley to a one-bid league for the fourth straight season and probably did the same to Cleveland State’s at-large candidacy. George Mason, who had just come off of a huge win at VCU last Tuesday to essentially sew up the CAA regular-season title, had nothing to gain by playing a Northern Iowa team that faded from the Valley title race earlier in the month. The Patriots won, and will almost surely be in the tournament.

One of the biggest surprises of this year’s event was Valparaiso’s home win over Missouri State. Valpo put on an impressive offensive display, scoring a phenomenal 1.27 points per possession against a team that had allowed 0.99 a trip in Valley play. On Monday, with a share of the league title on the line were they to win out, the Crusaders bottled it on the road against a middling Wisconsin-Green Bay team. Did Valpo lose because it got to full of itself after the BracketBusters win? Only the great Homer Drew knows that. But the Crusaders did have to get out of the mindset of Horizon League league play they had been in so they could face the Bears, and lost 48 hours after playing the non-conference game.

Article on surprises and disappointments this year (surprises)

Major Surprises

1. Notre Dame — A team projected to finish in the bottom half of the Big East is now poised to earn a No. 2 seed in the tournament. But the road will be tough for the Fighting Irish to a top spot in the Big Dance with games against Villanova, whom they’ve not played yet, and at Connecticut, a team they beat by only three at home earlier. Regardless, Notre Dame should be “dancing” come March, especially if they finish high in the conference tournament.

2. Vanderbilt — Also a team projected to finish near the bottom of the SEC is now in place for a potential No. 5 seed. But with conference powers Tennessee, Kentucky, and Florida left on the schedule, the Commodores’ stock could drop a little, although not enough to knock them out of the tournament. And a good showing in the SEC tournament wouldn’t hurt.

3. St. John’s — Steve Lavin’s return to the bench has been a successful one, to say the least. The Red Storm were predicted to finish behind Notre Dame in the Big East, but are now projected as a No. 6 seed in the Tournament. With only Villanova as the remaining challenge on the schedule, St. John’s could take some momentum into the Big East Tournament and earn an even higher seed.

4. St. Mary’s — Projected to finish just behind Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference, but be passed over for tournament consideration, the Gaels are now looking at a possible No. 7 seed. St. Mary’s can sew up the conference title with a win over the Zags this week and then look to have a head of steam going into the conference tournament. If they win both the regular season and tourney titles, they could oust Gonzaga from March Madness.

5. UNLV — Predicted to finish fourth in the Mountain West, the Runnin’ Rebels have gone from Tournament hopefuls to a potential seventh seed. All that’s left for the Rebs on the schedule are bubble team New Mexico, Wyoming, and Utah. Then it’s on to the MWC tournament where they’ll try to wreak some havoc against two other surprising teams from the conference.

Mild Surprises

1. San Diego State — Projected to win the MWC but only be a No. 7 tournament seed at the beginning of the year, now a potential No. 1 seed. However, they’ll have a tough road to No. 1 the rest of the way with BYU, Wyoming (not so tough), and Colorado State to end the regular season. If they can win out they’ll probably earn a top seed somewhere, even if they don’t win the Mountain West tournament.

2. Texas — Also projected to be a No. 7 seed preseason and in position to be a No. 1. They also have a seemingly difficult schedule with Colorado, Kansas State, and Baylor left, but two of those teams have been big disappointments this year. Barring a major disaster, the Longhorns will be a top seed somewhere, and maybe even No. 1 overall.

3. BYU — Predicted to finish just behind San Diego State in the MWC and earn a No. 8 seed into the tournament, the Cougars have played well enough to be a possible No. 2 in March. But they’re schedule the rest of the way is also tough, with the aforementioned matchup with the Aztecs, plus games against Colorado State and New Mexico. The conference tournament should be the tell-all of just how high BYU can go in the March Madness seeding.

4. UConn — Projected to finish eighth in the Big East and be just a No. 12 seed into the tournament, the Huskies are looking at a possible No. 3 seed. While they sit in the middle of the pack in the conference standings, an upset win over Notre Dame and a good finish in the conference tournament could solidify UConn as a legitimate No. 3.

5. Old Dominion — Predicted to finish second in the Colonial, but miss the tournament, the Monarchs are now a possible No. 8 seed and potentially one of three teams to earn a tournament berth. It will be the conference tournament that will decide where they ultimately end up in the March bracket.

The best of the rest — George Mason, Cincinnati, Colorado State, Louisville

Old Dominion

Monarchs coach Blaine Taylor interviewed in the offseason with Clemson, and now the two teams could very well meet in the semifinal round of the tournament. It was Taylor’s success at Old Dominion that got him the interview, and the defending CAA champions showed they’re once again a dangerous team to face by going down to the final possession in a season-opening loss to Georgetown. Under Taylor, defense and rebounding are priorities, and the Monarchs look to 6-foot-9 Frank Hassell along with wings Kent Bazemore and Ben Finney for production.

Vs VCU: Love this team.. again this year, I love this team. I believe that unless they have a very unfavorable draw, they will win a game. They have plenty of height inside, Hassell has a 7’3 wingspan, plenty of good athletic height (like 6’9, 6,11 height) and an athletic forward in  and solid guard play. They play tenacious defense, rebound like crazy – especially on the offensive glass – and they handled the VCU press with ease. They run a deliberate offense but will attack. They had an alley-oop from almost half court at one point. They play zone and man to man. I just loved this team and in this game.. this was as close as I have seen to George Mason since their run.