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Early Cindy picks article San Diego State U.

January 29, 2012 Leave a comment

This might be Steve Fisher’s best coaching job yet. The Aztecs don’t have a superstar player. Their overall stats aren’t eye-popping. However, they’re deep, they’re balanced, they play incredibly hard, they’re confident and they win. When your only two losses are to Baylor and Creighton, that’s nothing to be ashamed about. Four players average over 10 points a game for the Aztecs, but my favorite to watch is Jamaal Franklin, a 6-5 guard who is second on the team in scoring (15.2 points per game) and leads the team in rebounds (6.8 boards a game). SDSU is just a lot of fun to watch. They have mischief written all over them.

Wardo note:  They wont be as much value this year as they were last year (not as off the radar).

Categories: San Diego State

Dana Oneil (ESPN) SDSU Jan

January 21, 2012 Leave a comment

I’ll admit I was impressed but still a little skeptical about the Aztecs after they beat UNLV. It was a terrific win but in such a tight game, it was hard not to wonder how much the home-court advantage buoyed San Diego State.

Now we know.

The Aztecs took their Show on the road on Wednesday night, to the Pit, one of the toughest places to play in all of college basketball, and promptly dug themselves a 10-0 hole.

San Diego State emerged from New Mexico with a 75-70 victory, a win that is maybe more indicative of how legit this team is than the victory against UNLV.

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San Diego State

January 21, 2012 Leave a comment

Bilas The Aztecs don’t make free throws at a high rate, which could bite them in the NCAA tournament, and they are not a great offensive team, but they guard you and force tough shots. With a healthyXavier Thames running the point, San Diego State can beat people in March. However, this team is not as good as last year’s Kawhi Leonard-led Aztec team.January:

Feb 25th Bilas: Sooner or later, a lack of scoring will catch up with you. Steve Fisher’s team was beaten at Air Force, but wins against five Sagarin top-50 teams will serve the Aztecs’ cause well in the committee room.

Categories: Kirk, San Diego State

SDSU

March 1, 2011 Leave a comment

After BYU owned these guys twice, I wonder if their ranking has really been deserved.  The only ranked teams they have beat were Gonzaga (who are not ranked at this time, even though they are tied as leaders of the WCC), St Marys, and UNLV (twice).  Clearing out the thinking with the heart that liked SDSU as an overperforming underdog and re-examining them with the BYU losses shows me that they really are an overperforming underdog.  While they do have some good tools, they are unproven in the big games, such as the tourney will give them. 

If they win the conf tourney and beat BYU and UNLV to get there, I could change my mind again, but otherwise, if they come in as a 4, 5 or 6 and they get a big spread because of the season’s hype, this could be a team to bet against after all. 

This will really be all about the matchup again.

Vs BYU: They are CLUNKY on offense. They still kinda get it done, but it is ugly. Basically fight to get a shot up and then their real offense starts. Hit the boards. They must get out in transition if they face a solid defense rebounding team. A bad matchup for them will be someone who has good ball control, high field goal percentages,  and good defensive rebounding %.

“Before the season we all set goals as a team, and this is something we can check off on our checklist, winning the league championship,” senior guard D.J. Gay said. “It’s been a great season. It’s been a magical one so far. But we know it’s not over yet. We take this in and enjoy the moment, but tomorrow comes and it’s on to the tournament.”

Another of the Aztecs’ goals is to win a game in the NCAA tournament. They’re winless in six trips, including three under Fisher. They won the MWC tournament last year and the league’s automatic NCAA berth before losing to Tennessee. “Before the season we all set goals as a team, and this is something we can check off on our checklist, winning the league championship,” senior guard D.J. Gay said. “It’s been a great season. It’s been a magical one so far. But we know it’s not over yet. We take this in and enjoy the moment, but tomorrow comes and it’s on to the tournament.”

Another of the Aztecs’ goals is to win a game in the NCAA tournament. They’re winless in six trips, including three under Fisher. They won the MWC tournament last year and the league’s automatic NCAA berth before losing to Tennessee.

Categories: San Diego State

San Diego State

February 27, 2011 Leave a comment

San Diego State

Vs. BYU decent on the offensive boards(especially Leonard) but tight and missed a ton of bunnies. Struggle in the half court offense. Much better in transition. Do we dare believe the hype? They have NEVER won an NCAA tourney game. As of now only 16-11 against the spread. No read on the over unders either. Over 12/under 15 times this year to date. Almost 50% on all trend stats regarding over under (home /away/ranked/not ranked/2,3,4 days off etc.). No real read. If anything, I’d bet against them but not a strong opinion other than I think they are overrated having only played 2 top 25 teams and losing twice to BYU.

Categories: San Diego State

Article on surprises and disappointments this year (surprises)

February 24, 2011 Leave a comment

Major Surprises

1. Notre Dame — A team projected to finish in the bottom half of the Big East is now poised to earn a No. 2 seed in the tournament. But the road will be tough for the Fighting Irish to a top spot in the Big Dance with games against Villanova, whom they’ve not played yet, and at Connecticut, a team they beat by only three at home earlier. Regardless, Notre Dame should be “dancing” come March, especially if they finish high in the conference tournament.

2. Vanderbilt — Also a team projected to finish near the bottom of the SEC is now in place for a potential No. 5 seed. But with conference powers Tennessee, Kentucky, and Florida left on the schedule, the Commodores’ stock could drop a little, although not enough to knock them out of the tournament. And a good showing in the SEC tournament wouldn’t hurt.

3. St. John’s — Steve Lavin’s return to the bench has been a successful one, to say the least. The Red Storm were predicted to finish behind Notre Dame in the Big East, but are now projected as a No. 6 seed in the Tournament. With only Villanova as the remaining challenge on the schedule, St. John’s could take some momentum into the Big East Tournament and earn an even higher seed.

4. St. Mary’s — Projected to finish just behind Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference, but be passed over for tournament consideration, the Gaels are now looking at a possible No. 7 seed. St. Mary’s can sew up the conference title with a win over the Zags this week and then look to have a head of steam going into the conference tournament. If they win both the regular season and tourney titles, they could oust Gonzaga from March Madness.

5. UNLV — Predicted to finish fourth in the Mountain West, the Runnin’ Rebels have gone from Tournament hopefuls to a potential seventh seed. All that’s left for the Rebs on the schedule are bubble team New Mexico, Wyoming, and Utah. Then it’s on to the MWC tournament where they’ll try to wreak some havoc against two other surprising teams from the conference.

Mild Surprises

1. San Diego State — Projected to win the MWC but only be a No. 7 tournament seed at the beginning of the year, now a potential No. 1 seed. However, they’ll have a tough road to No. 1 the rest of the way with BYU, Wyoming (not so tough), and Colorado State to end the regular season. If they can win out they’ll probably earn a top seed somewhere, even if they don’t win the Mountain West tournament.

2. Texas — Also projected to be a No. 7 seed preseason and in position to be a No. 1. They also have a seemingly difficult schedule with Colorado, Kansas State, and Baylor left, but two of those teams have been big disappointments this year. Barring a major disaster, the Longhorns will be a top seed somewhere, and maybe even No. 1 overall.

3. BYU — Predicted to finish just behind San Diego State in the MWC and earn a No. 8 seed into the tournament, the Cougars have played well enough to be a possible No. 2 in March. But they’re schedule the rest of the way is also tough, with the aforementioned matchup with the Aztecs, plus games against Colorado State and New Mexico. The conference tournament should be the tell-all of just how high BYU can go in the March Madness seeding.

4. UConn — Projected to finish eighth in the Big East and be just a No. 12 seed into the tournament, the Huskies are looking at a possible No. 3 seed. While they sit in the middle of the pack in the conference standings, an upset win over Notre Dame and a good finish in the conference tournament could solidify UConn as a legitimate No. 3.

5. Old Dominion — Predicted to finish second in the Colonial, but miss the tournament, the Monarchs are now a possible No. 8 seed and potentially one of three teams to earn a tournament berth. It will be the conference tournament that will decide where they ultimately end up in the March bracket.

The best of the rest — George Mason, Cincinnati, Colorado State, Louisville

SDSU “slump busts” at Wyoming (Slump buster smack is awesome)

February 2, 2011 Leave a comment

Apparently, there’s no SDSU hangover from Wednesday’s loss at BYU.

The No. 4 Aztecs got the perfect slump-buster in Wyoming and, as the student section kept chanting, showed no mercy, blasting the Cowboys 96-57 on Saturday night

The 39-point margin is the largest by SDSU in the 12-year history of the Mountain West Conference. The 17 threes are a school record (eight different players made them).

“They’re really, really good,” Schroyer said afterward. “I was in the league as an assistant when Utah went to the Final Four (in 1998), and they’re better than (Utah was). They shoot like that, I don’t know if anybody in the country can beat them, let alone in this building.”

Earlier in the day BYU lost at New Mexico, meaning the Aztecs (21-1, 6-1) are tied again with the Cougars (20-2, 6-1) atop the MWC standings. Meaning: The Aztecs still control their own destiny in terms of the regular-season conference title.

It was 16-9, then 33-9. It was 44-22, then 53-22 at the half.

Four minutes into the second half, it was 64-24 and the game had degenerated into open gym at Serra Mesa Rec, with about as much defense as an NBA All-Star Game, with a two-pass possession being a rarity, with guys jacking up all kinds of shots from all kinds of area codes, with SDSU freshmen Jamaal Franklin trying a between-the-legs windmill dunk (which he missed).

It was about the only thing that didn’t go right. The Cowboys (8-13, 1-6) closed to 29 points. The Aztecs pushed it to 41.

“It’s tough losing like that for my homecoming,” said Luster, a prep legend at nearby Hoover High. “It’s kind of embarrassing. But they’re a good team. They’re ranked No. 4 in the country for a reason.

“I tip my hat when guys are coming off the bench who aren’t really in the scouting report and they can play – guys who could start for any other team in the league.”

All 12 Aztecs who got on the floor scored, led by a career-high 24 from Tapley (on 10-of-15 shooting). Carlwell had eight points and a career-high 10 rebounds. Cheriet had a season-high eight points and three rebounds in 15 minutes. Gay rebounded from a 0-of-7 performance against BYU by going 4-of-8 behind the arc.

Or there was this mind-boggling stat: 2.

That’s how many points Thomas and Leonard, arguably SDSU’s two best players, each scored.

“The most impressive thing to me was 20 assists in 35 baskets – our unselfishness,” Coach Steve Fisher said. “One time we were trying to run a play for Kawhi, and he said, ‘Don’t worry about running a play for me. We’re scoring every time and let’s just move the ball.’

“That’s how you have to play, but a lot of teams are not able to play that way. We have a lot of people who want to win.”

But at least Fisher won’t have to worry about his team being mired in a funk from its last trip into the mountains.

Wyoming freshman Joe Hudson (Escondido High) played 12 minutes and finished with two points. Luster had 10 points, four rebounds and four assists … Wyoming shot 29.7 percent (19-of-64). The season low by an Aztecs opponent was 29.2 by Cal Poly San Luis Obispo here on Dec. 13 … Wyoming, which has lost five straight, now returns home to face No. 9 BYU. Said Schroyer: “This league is very unforgiving.” …

Categories: San Diego State

BYU over San Diego State

February 2, 2011 Leave a comment

The ninth-ranked Cougars showed they also have plenty of talented big men in Wednesday night’s 71-58 victory over No. 4 San Diego State that left No. 1 Ohio State as the only unbeaten team in the nation.

“It was a physical game and we stayed with them for about 35 minutes, but we just couldn’t hang for 40,” San Diego State coach Steve Fisher said. “This team is really good and our team is really good. I think we are both capable of beating any team anywhere at any time.”

BYU (20-1, 6-0) has won 10 straight, and six in a row at home against San Diego State (20-1, 5-1). While Fredette led the way on 14-of-24 shooting, reserve center James Anderson helped break open a close game with a career-high five blocks in 14 minutes. BYU forward Brandon Davies also kept the Cougars in it early with eight points in the first 10 minutes. “I feel like our guys really battled,” coach Dave Rose said.

They saw sophomore Kawhi Leonard record another double-double for the Aztecs with 22 points and 15 rebounds. And they also saw Anderson, an unheralded junior. “James did a great job,” Davies said of the 6-foot-10 Anderson, who added three rebounds. “They have great bigs and that’s one of the things we emphasized. … He came in and played them 1-on-1 and did a great job.”

The Cougars trailed 31-30 at halftime thanks to a late 3-pointer by Leonard. But BYU turned it on in the second half. With the score tied at 44, the Cougars went on a 16-8 run to take a 60-52 lead with 4:12 to go. Noah Hartsock capped the run with a layup. Fredette also hit a pair of 3-pointers, Anderson had several key blocks and BYU’s career steals leader, Jackson Emery, came up with a key theft and jam. Emery scored only four points but held Aztecs point guard D.J. Gay to two on 0-for-7 shooting. Leonard’s jumper pulled San Diego State to 60-54 with 3:45 remaining, but then Fredette took over. He made seven straight free throws to give BYU a 13-point lead. “I made my first couple of shots in the second half and I wanted to keep going and being aggressive,” said Fredette, who has topped 40 points in three of his last four games.

San Diego State won the rebounding battle 42-35, but only by two in the second half. “I think the key to the win was our big guys coming in and rebounding the heck out of the ball in the second half,” Fredette said.

There were more blocks (five) than fouls (three) in the first 14 minutes as the officials let the teams go at it.

Categories: BYU, San Diego State

San Diego State over TCU conf opener

January 8, 2011 Leave a comment

The sixth-ranked Aztecs had four dunks and five steals—four on turnovers by TCU scoring leader Ronnie Moss—in a game-turning 3-minute run soon after halftime and stretched their season-opening winning streak to 16 in a row with a 66-53 victory over TCU on Wednesday night.

“Every time we get a run, it’s our defense. We’re stealing a ball, blocking shots, that’s how we try to get our runs,” Kawhi Leonard said. “In the second half, we came out and focused on (Moss), got him to force the four turnovers, and that’s when we got our run going.”

San Diego State’s 13-0 run started with Malcolm Thomas’ dunk, and then he had the first steal of Moss. That was followed by a highlight ally-oop play with a pass from Chase Tapley.

A pair of steals by Leonard led to consecutive breakaway slams—one of his own and another by Tapley that pushed the Aztecs to a 49-31 lead over TCU (9-7) in the Mountain West Conference opener for both teams.

“We just said guard hard and smart, keep them out of the paint, challenge as hard as you can every three,” coach Steve Fisher said. “They had second-chance points (in the first half) that we didn’t give them in the second half. The way we guarded in the second half was the key to the game.”

San Diego State’s 16-game winning streak is the second-longest in the country, trailing only the 24 wins in a row by defending national champion Duke.

The Aztecs have the longest winning streak in the 90-year history of the program. It is the most consecutive wins ever at the start of a season for Fisher in his 20 seasons as a head coach—12 at San Diego State and eight at Michigan. His 1992-93 Wolverines won their first 12 games and played in the NCAA title game that season.

In their Mountain West opener, the undefeated Aztecs did pretty much the same thing they have been doing to non-conference opponents. They put the game out of reach with a strong second half, including yet another extended scoring run.

“I kind of did expect it (the second-half run),” Thomas said. “But if we want to get to where we want to go, we can’t play just half games.”

The 13-0 run was already the Aztecs’ 22nd scoring spurt this season of at least nine consecutive points. And it was part of a bigger 30-6 scoring surge that spanned halftime.

Thomas finished with 18 points and 10 rebounds while Leonard had 14 points and 11 rebounds. Tapley had 12 points.

Garlon Green had 13 points for TCU, while Nikola Cerina had 12 and Moss 11 on 5-of-15 shooting while going just 1-of-7 on 3-pointers with six turnovers. J.R. Cadot had 12 rebounds.

“We’re down three (at halftime) to the No. 6 team in the country, we shot 33 percent in our building, so we should be feeling good,” TCU coach Jim Christian said. “But then they came out and took it right to us. … It’s really more about us than them; if you turn the ball over, you turn the ball over; they didn’t change anything, they just got a little more aggressive defensively and we got a little more careless with the ball.”

TCU had half of its 12 steals in the opening 6 minutes of the second half.

Even before that 13-0 run, Leonard set the tone after halftime with a strong inside basket, and Thomas then drove for a layup while being fouled and made the free throw. Then Billy White had an impressive block, slapping the ball out of Moss’ hands from behind with such force that it ricocheted off the backboard out past the 3-point arc—and that led to a one-handed hard slam by Thomas.

James Rahon hit consecutive 3-pointers, the first from the top of the key as the shot clock expired, to start a 10-1 run for the Aztecs that put them up 29-26 at halftime. Those were Rahon’s only points.

Brian Carlwell then had a layup and a slam dunk to wrap up the first half.

TCU had led 25-19 when Cerina made an inside layup. That came right after Cadot’s scooping assist to Green, who grabbed the ball in midair and slammed it.

Categories: San Diego State

San Diego State Aztec article

January 8, 2011 Leave a comment

ARTICLE by Ryan Day:

This winter, one team has stood out as a contender. One team has stood out as a squad who will go deeper in the tournament than many will give them credit for. One team will score a couple of upsets and progress further than its university ever has in the postseason.

And that team is San Diego State.

Never mind that San Diego State, which has five seniors listed on its roster, is playing at the highest level of its school’s history. Or the fact that the Aztecs have gone undefeated in non-conference play, a feat which has never been done. Those things are impressive, but they aren’t why San Diego State will, in my opinion, rock and roll its way into the Final Four. The reason San Diego State’s basketball program is firing on all cylinders, Steve Fisher, the head coach of the San Diego State men’s basketball team, has taken this program to heights it never thought possible. When he started in 1999, he was taking over a program that hadn’t seen the NCAA tournament in 17 years. It had only one winning season since the Reagan administration and even in his first year, the Aztecs only mustered five wins. It was a bad program Fisher inherited, but his skills as a coach shined through.

Fisher has quietly turned that around in the last decade. He’s triumphed through five straight winning seasons and reached the NIT semifinals in 2009. His Aztecs have never made it past the opening round in the NCAA tournament, but that’s because they are continually snubbed by the selection committee, always garnering just a high enough reputation to be a part of the postseason, but just a low enough seed to get shell-shocked by some Big Ten powerhouse on the opening weekend.

With an undefeated record heading into conference play, and the strongest roster in recent history, San Diego State will be the feel-good story of the postseason tournament.

Let’s start with forward Kawhi Leonard. Not only is the guy averaging a double-double (15.7 points per game and 10.0 rebounds per game), but he’s durable (has only missed one game), has incredible endurance (has played at least 33 minutes in nine out of 14 games), and plays at his highest level during the stiffest competition (18 points, 12 rebounds and three steals against No. 12 Gonzaga). Mix in that this rising star is only a sophomore with no plans to leave early and you’ve got the centerpiece for a beautiful future for Aztec basketball fans that begins with some upsets in March.

The Aztecs are also scoring a lot of points, shooting a phenomenal 51.0% from the floor. That’s third in the nation. Not third in the Mountain West Conference, third in the nation. Duke is shooting 50%, Syracuse is shooting 47%, Kentucky is shooting 47%, and San Diego State is making 51% of their baskets. Precise shooting is what carries underdogs through the stumbling block of the Sweet 16 and into championship contention and the Aztecs most certainly have that.

But most of all, San Diego State has a coach who knows what he’s doing and has built a powerhouse basketball team that will fly under the radar and sneak attack March Madness. Fisher, in his 11th season with the Aztecs, has compiled five straight 20-win seasons and five straight postseason appearances.

Categories: San Diego State

San Diego State

December 5, 2010 Leave a comment

Game Notes: Vs  Gonzaga -  This team runs out a front line that matches up with anyone and will take advantage of most. Vs Gonzaga decent front court, SDState dominated them attacking the boards, manning up, and facing up and driving. They are good, have a deep bench, and they are tenacious, too.  Their guards are good I would not say great but good. I would like to see them play some fast and high scoring guards.. thats the only way they struggle.

After last years loss… think they will be focused? “This is a very cruel business when you don’t win, and the end comes very abruptly at this time of year,” said San Diego State coach Steve Fisher, who won the 1989 NCAA title and reached the championship game twice more with Michigan.  ”I told our team afterward, ‘It has to hurt. It has to hurt more than 30 seconds.’ I’m disappointed and feel very badly for them because they won’t have the opportunity to experience what advancing means and how it feels. I’ve been there. I know how it feels. We’ll have a chance next year.”

Vs BYU Game Analysis: How BYU wins: The Cougars have to make San Diego State play in a half-court game. If the Aztecs are able to get out and run, playing ahead of the defense, they will beat BYU. However, if BYU can limit San Diego State in transition and force a five-on-five half-court game, the advantage goes to BYU.  How SDSU wins: The Aztecs have to dominate the backboards and beat BYU down the floor. San Diego State tends to take some questionable shots, most of which are challenged in the half-court. If the Aztecs can limit those and be efficient, they will be in a better position to win. The key for San Diego State is more efficient offense. They cannot put all of the pressure on the defense to get stops. Key stat: Rebounding and free throws. In the first meeting, BYU gave up a whopping 14 offensive rebounds to San Diego State, nine of which went to Leonard. They cannot repeat that stat and give extra possessions to the Aztecs. San Diego State has to keep BYU off of the foul line. The Cougars shot just 43 free throws against Colorado State.

Categories: Kirk, San Diego State

Rivals com top 25 preseason

November 7, 2010 Leave a comment
Preseason top 25
1. DUKE
Why they’re here: Duke has perhaps the nation’s top returning player in F Kyle Singler, the Most Outstanding Player of last season’s Final Four. The arrivals of Liberty transfer Seth Curry and highly touted freshman Kyrie Irving should make up for the loss of All-America G Jon Scheyer in the backcourt. Duke also boasts arguably the nation’s best coach in Mike Krzyzewski.
The key player: Irving arrives on campus as the No. 4 prospect in the 2010 recruiting class, and the Blue Devils need him to live up to his billing. Irving, Curry and All-America candidate Nolan Smith all have the ability to play either guard position, but Irving is the most natural point guard of the trio. Duke will need this freshman to play with the poise of an upperclassman by the time March rolls around.
2. MICHIGAN STATE
Why they’re here: The Spartans could be better than the team that reached its second consecutive Final Four last season. Michigan State made its tournament run with G Kalin Lucas on crutches and F Delvon Roe hobbled by injuries. F Draymond Green is Evan Turner-like in his versatility, and G Durrell Summers was the team MVP in March.
The key player: Lucas had an up-and-down season because of injuries; he missed the Final Four run with a torn Achilles tendon. When healthy, he’s one of the best point guards in the country, but he missed the entire offseason rehabbing his injury.
3. KANSAS
Why they’re here: With freshman G Josh Selby, Kansas would be the favorite to win the Big 12. Selby is a do-it-all point guard, with tremendous athleticism. Team him with underrated PF Marcus Morris, and KU would have one of the best inside-outside duos in the nation. But while coach Bill Self has said he thinks Selby will play this season, the NCAA hasn’t officially ruled on his eligibility yet. Without Selby, KU is good – but it wouldn’t be this good.
The key player: Obviously, it’s Selby. But even if Selby is eligible, G Tyshawn Taylor can’t be overlooked. He is a solid all-around player, and his defense and passing were strong last season. He seemingly can get to the rim against anybody, but Taylor must improve his outside stroke. If he becomes an adequate 3-point shooter, KU would become exceedingly tough to beat.
4. PITTSBURGH
Why they’re here: If there were any lingering doubts about coach Jamie Dixon‘s abilities, they ended last season. This has become a big-time program, one that re-loads and not rebuilds. G Ashton Gibbs is a big-timer, and Brad Wanamaker and Travon Woodall complete one of the better guard triumvirates in the nation. There also are a lot of big bodies up front that will help the Panthers play their aggressive and physical brand of defense.
The key player: While the backcourt gets most of the attention, don’t sleep on the frontcourt. Keep an especially close eye on senior C Gary McGhee. He has the size and skill set to be a low-post enforcer on defense and a productive garbage man on offense. If he can push his scoring average to around 10 points – a jump of 3.1 from last season – coach Jamie Dixon would be happy.
5. OHIO STATE
Why they’re here: Do-everything swingman Evan Turner is gone, but the Buckeyes still have enough talent returning and arriving to make another run in the Big Ten. Freshman Jared Sullinger will step in and make an instant impact in the frontcourt. William Buford was perhaps underrated in Turner’s shadow; that won’t be the case anymore.
The key player: The Buckeyes have plenty of guards (Buford, Jon Diebler), but no true point guard. Senior David Lighty, who played on a Final Four team as a freshman, could claim Turner’s role as the do-everything swingman.
6. KANSAS STATE
Why they’re here: Kansas will be a hot place to be this basketball season, what with the Jayhawks, Missouri Valley favorite Wichita State and these guys. The Wildcats fell to Butler in the Elite Eight last season, and the bulk of the key players are back, including potential All-America G Jacob Pullen. There also are some solid newcomers who will help K-State challenge Kansas for supremacy in the state and in the Big 12.
The key player: F Wally Judge was the crown jewel of last season’s freshman class, but Judge never really seemed to adapt to the trappings of major-college ball. He certainly has all the physical tools. If he lives up to his high school hype, the Wildcats will have one of the best frontcourts in the nation, as he and fellow holdovers Curtis Kelly and Jamar Samuels will be joined by transfer Freddy Asprilla and freshman Nino Williams.
7. VILLANOVA
Why they’re here: Scottie Reynolds – a backcourt fixture for the Wildcats for, what, about 12 or 13 seasons? – is gone, but coach jay Wright still has one of the best backcourts around. Look for senior G Corey Fisher to become a star, and Dominic Cheek, Corey Stokes and Maalik Wayns lend ample backcourt support. Senior F Antonio Pena willingly does all the little things.
The key player: Sophomore C Mouphtaou Yarou was sidelined by hepatitis B early last season and struggled to gain his footing once he was healthy. But he has the athleticism and skill level to be a defensive force, and he should be able to provide 10 or so points per game as well. Plus, with Yarou in the lineup, Pena can play power forward, his natural position.
8. SYRACUSE
Why they’re here: Wesley Johnson, Arinze Onuaku and Andy Rautins – all gone. But weep not for coach Jim Boeheim, who once again will be busy in March. Look for junior K Kris Joseph to make the jump from important reserve to go-to guy. Rich Jackson is a physical presence up front, and Scoop Jardine and Brandon Triche are solid combo guards.
The key player: Freshman C Fab Melo arrives with a load of hype, and the 7-footer should be able to live up to most of it. His name is a perfect fit for Syracuse (come on – anyone named “Melo” has to play for the Orange), and his skills in the low post fit should fit perfectly with what this team needs.
9. BAYLOR
Why they’re here: The Bears were in the Elite Eight last season, and while they lost some key players from that team, there’s still some talent on hand. Most notably, G LaceDarius Dunn is back for his senior season. Dunn is one of the best offensive players in the nation. Big things are expected from true freshman F Perry Jones, an athletic big man who will score, rebound and block shots.
The key player: Sophomore A.J. Walton will try to fill the shoes of departed PG Tweety Carter. Walton has good range and while he’s not likely to score as much as Carter (who averaged 15.0 points last season), he has the potential to be a double-figure scorer and a guy who gets four or five assists a night.
10. NORTH CAROLINA
Why they’re here: This ranking admittedly is a leap of faith, considering North Carolina failed to reach the NCAA tournament last season. But we’re betting freshman F Harrison Barnes immediately establishes himself as one of the nation’s top players, and that five-star prospect Reggie Bullock shores up the backcourt. We’re also counting on sophomore F John Henson to make major strides and C Tyler Zeller to stay healthy.
The key player: The easy answer is to go with Barnes, but we’re betting he’s the real deal. We also could focus on the continued development of Henson and PG Larry Drew III. But it would really help the Tar Heels if Zeller could stay healthy for an entire season after being injured for large chunks of the past two. If he can play a full season, this highly skilled 7-footer could shore up a frontcourt that has plenty of star power but serious depth concerns.
11. GONZAGA
Why they’re here: Gonzaga returns four starters from a team that went 27-7 and advanced to the second round of the NCAA tournament last season. The Zags have a potential first-round draft pick in sophomore F Elias Harris, a legitimate 7-footer in Robert Sacre and a proven perimeter scorer in G Steven Gray.
The key player: The Zags need more production from PG Demetri Goodson. Although Goodson technically was Gonzaga’s starting point guard last season, he had less than half as many assists as SG Matt Bouldin. Now that Bouldin has completed his college career, Goodson needs to emerge as more of a playmaker.
12. KENTUCKY
Why they’re here: The Wildcats are ranked this highly because, with freshman big man Enes Kanter, they will have excellent inside-outside balance and should win the SEC. One problem: Kanter’s eligibility is an issue, and he hasn’t even practiced with the team. He is the centerpiece of yet another fantastic recruiting class put together by John Calipari.
The key player: If Kanter is eligible, it’ll be him, as he basically will be asked to be this season’s version of DeMarcus Cousins. If he isn’t eligible, freshman PG Brandon Knight – a big-time talent in his own right – will have more of the scoring responsibility. He and fellow freshman Doron Lamb should form a productive backcourt; how productive it will have to be depends on Kanter’s status.
13. FLORIDA
Why they’re here: All five starters are back from a team that lost in the first round of the NCAA tourney. Plus, there’s a solid group of freshman, headed by physical big man Patric Young. Senior F Chandler Parsons made huge strides last season, and his versatility at 6 feet 9 – he can hit the 3-pointer, as well as put the ball on the floor and get to the rim – is a key part of Florida’s offense. Backcourt depth potentially is a huge problem again, and some freshmen must come through on the perimeter.
The key player: G Kenny Boynton struggled with his shot last season as a true freshman and didn’t live up to his offensive hype out of high school. But his defense was surprisingly good, and if he can get his 3-point percentage into at least the high 30s – it was a dreadful 29.4 percent last season – Florida’s offense will be quite potent.
14. ILLINOIS
Why they’re here: Last season was a disappointment that ended in the NIT, but Illinois’ core of G Demetri McCamey, C Mike Tisdale and F Mike Davis returns, and each is a senior. Tisdale and Davis, an imposing frontcourt duo, are a rarity in college basketball as senior big men. Beyond those key seniors, Illinois is looking for sophomore Gs D.J. Richardson and Brandon Paul to build on solid freshman seasons.
The key player: The relationship between McCamey and coach Bruce Weber bears watching. When McCamey is on his game, he’s one of the best in the country. But he wasn’t consistent, as evidenced by 123 turnovers.
15. MISSOURI
Why they’re here: The Tigers are well-versed in coach Mike Anderson’s version of the “40 minutes of hell” defense, and they’ll again make life difficult for Big 12 foes. Mizzou forced a nation’s-high 659 turnovers last season, though some key defenders moved on. But the top three scorers are back, and G Kim English should get more national notice this season.
The key player: Sophomore Michael Dixon should move into departed J.T. Tiller’s role as the Tigers’ point guard. Dixon did a nice job offensively last season and has the potential to be a solid 3-point shooter. But he needs to turn up the defensive intensity. He has the athleticism to do so.
16. BUTLER
Why they’re here: Butler lost star F Gordon Hayward to the NBA, but most of the other key players from last season’s NCAA runner-up return. G Shelvin Mack should develop into an All-America candidate in his junior season. If Butler keeps playing the type of defense it displayed in last season’s NCAA tournament, the Bulldogs should win the Horizon League and make a deep postseason run again.
The key player: Senior F/C Matt Howard was the Horizon League player of the year two seasons ago, but his numbers dipped last season as he struggled with foul trouble. Now that Hayward is gone, Howard needs to recapture his 2008-09 production. If he can avoid fouls, Howard should team with Mack to give Butler one of the nation’s best inside-outside duos.
17. PURDUE
Why they’re here: The season-ending injury to F Robbie Hummel is not the end of the Boilermakers. F JaJuan Johnson and G E’Twaun Moore could be the best inside-outside duo in the Big Ten. Just as critical for the Boilers’ success are Lewis Jackson and Kelsey Barlow, who look to share the point guard spot.
The key player: The replacement for Hummel will be a work-in-progress sophomore (Patrick Bade), a redshirt freshman (Sandi Marcus) and/or a true freshman (Travis Carroll). Junior G Ryne Smith might be just as important filling in for departed role players Chris Kramer and Keaton Grant. Smith will be a defensive specialist off the bench who also can shoot the 3-pointer.
18. MEMPHIS
Why they’re here: Last season, a depth-shy (and, frankly, talent-shy) Tigers team missed out on the NCAA tourney. That shouldn’t happen this season. Coach Josh Pastner brought in an ultra-talented freshman class, and if the newcomers mesh well with holdovers such as F Wesley Witherspoon, the Tigers can make a nice run in March.
The key player: Freshman G Joe Jackson signed with the hometown Tigers out of high school, and it’ll be his job to make sure everyone stays on the same page. Jackson was a prolific scorer in high school, but he’ll have to worry more about getting his teammates shots than getting his points. He’ll still get his points, and we’re betting he does a nice job distributing the ball, too.
19. VIRGINIA TECH
Why they’re here: Virginia Tech returns nine of the top 10 scorers from a team that matched a school record with 25 wins last season. G Malcolm Delaney led the ACC in scoring last year, while F Jeff Allen is the ACC’s active career leader in rebounds, steals and blocks. Virginia Tech’s recent history of Selection Sunday disappointment should end this season.
The key player: Perhaps no player in the ACC is more indispensible than Delaney. Not only did he lead the conference in scoring last season, he also ranked sixth in assists, third in free-throw percentage and fourth in minutes. He has the talent to lead Virginia Tech to an NCAA bid much in the same way Greivis Vasquez carried Maryland on his back last season.
20. TEMPLE
Why they’re here: Fran Dunphy has returned the Owls to the top of the Atlantic 10; last season, he guided the Owls to their best regular season (29-6) since 1987-88. The NCAA tournament is a different story, with three consecutive first-round losses. With the inside-outside duo of F Lavoy Allen (who averaged a double-double last season) and G Juan Fernandez, the Owls have what it takes to extend regular-season success into the NCAA tournament.
The key player: G Ramone Moore averaged 16.1 points over a seven-game stretch in January and February. As unexpected and sudden as the hot streak started, it ended in the last month of the season. With Ryan Brooks gone, Moore will need to play at a high level over the course of the entire season to take some pressure off Fernandez.
21. WASHINGTON
Why they’re here: The Huskies helped the Pac-10 save face last season with a trip to the Sweet 16, and they look poised to be the class of the conference again. Undersized but high-scoring G Isaiah Thomas leads one of the best and deepest backcourts in the nation.
The key player: F Matthew Bryan-Amaning emerged late last season, becoming one of Washington’s best players in the NCAA tournament. He’ll need to sustain that level of play through this season. He’s by far the Huskies’ best option in the frontcourt now that Quincy Pondexter is gone.
22. SAN DIEGO STATE
Why they’re here: The Aztecs return all five starters from a team that went 25-9 and won the Mountain West Conference tournament last season. Kawhi Leonard, Billy White and Malcolm Thomas give San Diego State one of the nation’s top frontcourts. In seasons when San Diego State coach Steve Fisher has returned at least four starters, his teams have won 72.6 percent of their games.
The key player: Leonard earned first-team All-MWC honors as a freshman and could mature into an All-America candidate as a sophomore. He recorded 17 double-doubles last season and was the MVP of the MWC tournament. He was the only freshman from an NCAA tournament squad last year to lead his team in points and rebounds.
23. WEST VIRGINIA
Why they’re here: Bob Huggins‘ Mountaineers made a Final Four run last season, but they lost so much talent that another Final Four appearance is too much to ask. Still, WVU should be in the thick of the race in the Big East. Look for underrated F Kevin Jones to become the go-to guy; he’s a physical presence with a nice outside stroke.
The key player: G Joe Mazzulla battled injuries last season, but he is a gritty floor leader who knows what Huggins wants done on both ends of the court. He is the epitome of a “glue guy,” and has the potential to average around 10 points and four assists.
24. WISCONSIN
Why they’re here: The NCAA tournament was a letdown, with the Badgers losing in the second round to Cornell, but Wisconsin has been remarkably consistent in the regular season under coach Bo Ryan. Wisconsin has won at least 10 Big Ten games in eight of the past nine seasons and reached the tournament in each of the past 12. The Badgers are an experienced group, led by versatile F Jon Leuer and PG Jordan Taylor.
The key player: The departures of Trevon Hughes and Jason Bohannon mean freshmen will need to contribute at guard. Ben Brust can play either guard spot and shoot the “3.” Hughes and Bohannon combined to make 142 3-pointers last season. Taylor made 35.
25. TENNESSEE
Why they’re here: Freshman Tobias Harris arrives with copious press clippings, and he should provide an immediate offensive presence in the paint. His arrival means the Vols have enough talent to challenge for the SEC East title, but an ongoing NCAA investigation could take its toll.
The key player: Junior G Scotty Hopson has shown flashes of stardom, but he has lacked consistency. This needs to be the season he breaks through. He is a silky-smooth player with big-time range, and his size (6-7) helps him overpower smaller defenders.
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