In the race for representation among the lesser-known west coast schools, I’ll choose to reside in Logan for the minute. Once again, Stu Morrill has his team headed into the postseason with an impressive (even gaudy) record. Like last year, the Aggies non-conference schedule wasn’t terribly impressive. This year, there was one “Power Conference” opponent on the entire schedule (a loss to Georgetown). And that’s more than there was last season.
If USU returns to the main tournament for a third straight time, they’ll have quite a bit of experience leading the way (six seniors, four juniors). That could provide a problem for some of these more mainstream teams that haven’t had a chance to see Utah State. However, any surprise factor from the first round should wear off by Saturday or Sunday.
Upset potential: Second round
The big winners were Utah State, who beat St. Mary’s on the road, and the Colonial’s potential three-bid triumvirate of VCU, Old Dominion, and George Mason. The predominant losers in the TV games were the MVC’s Wichita State, Missouri State plus the aforementioned Gaels out of the WCC. All three would be well-advised to win their conference tournaments as a result if they want to play in the NCAA Tournament.
However, there were more losers that didn’t come close to any airtime.
The CAA’s success at the hands of Wichita State, Missouri State, and Cleveland State likely confined the Missouri Valley to a one-bid league for the fourth straight season and probably did the same to Cleveland State’s at-large candidacy. George Mason, who had just come off of a huge win at VCU last Tuesday to essentially sew up the CAA regular-season title, had nothing to gain by playing a Northern Iowa team that faded from the Valley title race earlier in the month. The Patriots won, and will almost surely be in the tournament.
One of the biggest surprises of this year’s event was Valparaiso’s home win over Missouri State. Valpo put on an impressive offensive display, scoring a phenomenal 1.27 points per possession against a team that had allowed 0.99 a trip in Valley play. On Monday, with a share of the league title on the line were they to win out, the Crusaders bottled it on the road against a middling Wisconsin-Green Bay team. Did Valpo lose because it got to full of itself after the BracketBusters win? Only the great Homer Drew knows that. But the Crusaders did have to get out of the mindset of Horizon League league play they had been in so they could face the Bears, and lost 48 hours after playing the non-conference game.
50% of looks this season off jump shots and they drain them. Today they aggressively attacked rim. Don’t attempt many 3’s. Seem to have good inside out balance. Best Player Tai Wesley coming off broken nose and sat out some in second half after getting hit there again twice. Good half court pressure defense. Patient on offense but will run whenever they have numbers. 3-4 athletes. Coach said it is his best defensive team ever and they are led largely by seniors. Not really impressed with St Mary’s but non the less, Utah State looked good in 10 point road win.
2010 Tournament Summary: Played Texas A&M and stats said bet Utah State. They were wrong. TAM easily covered the 2.5 with a 16 point win. Blue book said they lost to teams that were too big in the post or too fast in the frontcourt and in this game “We haven’t played anybody as good as Texas A&M,” Utah State coach Stew Morrill said. “Texas A&M physically dominated us.”.. “Our whole thing was, Utah State had to beat us with 2s today,” Turgeon said. “I think they were so fatigued because they had to work so hard to get a shot. I think our depth kind of wore them down.” IT worked!
2011 Outlook: This team returns everyone but star pg Jared Quayle. That means stability, but they need a pg since Quayle and his backup left the program. JC transfer Pane will try to step in. So.. outlook.. same as last year. Win league and return to tournament to lose to a 5 seed.
Game Notes: Georgetown – very solid again fundementally and their big man Wesley is good. He reminds me of the kid from Butler. He did get in foul trouble in this game and it killed Utah State in the second half. Other than him, 8+ guys who know their role and play an offense with a ton of picks and passes. I have been skeptical of this team in the past but not now. They have athletes and they play very well as a team. They were not at all overwhelmed by Georgetown in Georgetown and even though they got jobbed by the refs, they handled it well. They did have some turnovers, though, and I think it was due to them not usually seeing the level of athlete that Georgetown presents. Their Zone was REALLY solid.
Vs NM State: Such a disciplined team and such a GREAT rebounding team. They get them all. Deliberate on offense and they have three point shooters. I think this is a legit upset team. They will certainly keep the game with their methodical play and their ability to hit the three. Win or lose by 8 – 12.
Vs St Marys: Fact about this team, they get most of their shots from jumpers… which given their roster isnt totally surprising but points to the fact they can score unless the other team really has balanced and passionate defense. They attacked the rim in this game which was a new twist for me, but their PG Pane did a good job of getting penetration. They quickly got St Marys in foul trouble. They played sound defense. What ws interesting to me in this game was the lack of emphasis on Wesley… which is great come tournament time for this team. They play zone primarily. I like this team.. problem I have is who they match up against because as a top 25 team, they will be something like a 5 seed? so.. as a 12 seed, I like them. As a five seed I dont love them. The thing for them is that the teams they have beat didnt have great post players except Georgetown who beat them bad by getting Wesley in foul trouble. If they can avoid that, then their high FG% shooting is dangerous.
