VCU

Shaka Smart’s got his team on fire right now. The Rams have won 14 of their last 15, including a dominating performance over George Mason last weekend. VCU is winning games in the same fashion as last year, which makes them difficult but also makes them a major target. No one will let the Rams slip quietly past them this year. However, watching Darius Theus play is worth the price of admission all in itself.

2012 VCU

December: Relentless pressure defense and a team that feeds on turnovers. They trained with Navy Seals in the off-season and their team plays like it. They lost most of their team, but they have replaced them with some real athletes. They have the horses again this year. In this game, and I suspect others, teams will have an initial shock when they play them. The game is frenetic and chaotic. You will need to handle the ball well and need some depth verse them. You will foul if you play them.

Feb 26th ESPN:

VCU Rams (25-6, 15-3, RPI: 62, BPI: 58, KenPom.com: 47)
Kill skills: As usual for the Rams, everything starts with their trapping, pressing D. They force turnovers on 27 percent of opponents’ possessions, which is second in the country, and they lead the nation with a steal percentage of 16.1. Both stats are significantly better than what last year’s team produced. They’re also careful on offense, turning it over on only 17.8 percent of possessions. But the biggest difference between then and now is that while the Rams hit 37 percent of their 3-balls last season, which accounted for 35.5 percent of their points, those numbers are down to 32.2 and 32.3, respectively. They still look like a live Killer, but they’re going to have to rely on that pressure D to generate enough offense to beat a top team.

3/5:

Here are the top 10 potential Giant Killers, rated on a scale from 0 to 100 by our 2012 statistical model. These are the highest scores among all eligible teams, whether they are already in the NCAA tournament, working their way through conference championships or awaiting word about their bids. We will get to actual head-to-head odds once we know actual tournament seedings. Also, this is a lot more detailed than we’re going to go into for Giants. You probably know a thing or seven about Syracuse and Kentucky already. This is your chance to keep diving into what could make less famous teams Killer material — and to figure out which schools to root for in the week leading up to Selection Sunday.

Virginia Commonwealth Rams (37.7): The Shaka Smart Experience lost three senior starters from the squad that went to the Final Four in 2011, but hasn’t missed a beat in about two months. (VCU’s only defeat since Jan. 8 was a one-point road loss to George Mason on Valentine’s Day.) Amping up a defense that proved last season it could mix and match assignments by specific opponents and sparked by freshman Briante Weber, the Rams now lead the entire country in steals (16.2 percent of opponent possessions) and generating turnovers (27.3 percent), and are limiting opponents to shooting just 31.4 percent on 3-point attempts. VCU isn’t shooting as well as it did last year (effective field goal percentage of just 47.6 percent, 234th in the NCAA), but with its avoidance of turnovers (only 17.6 percent of possessions) and a newfound commitment to offensive rebounding (34.4 percent of misses), it makes possessions count, generating 106.2 points per 100 possessions (81st in the country).

Their path forward: Maybe it’s just us, but when it comes to bubble cases, why wouldn’t you want to favor mid-majors with coaches like Smart who have demonstrated Cinderella performance, not to mention incredibly dynamic but little-known players like Weber? South Florida is ranked nine spots below the Rams in the BPI (65th versus 56th). Do we really need to see the Bulls, who rank 302nd in the country in turnover percentage, and who, despite their height, couldn’t stop my mother from blocking their shots, instead of the Rams? Unfortunately, wide swaths of the basketball-loving population do not consider this a rhetorical question. Which makes tonight’s Colonial tournament final between VCU and Drexel the most important game of the week for Giant Killers. The Dragons may make the big dance no matter what happens, but the Rams probably need a win to “steal” a bid.

Bracketbusters article cut to team info

The big winners were Utah State, who beat St. Mary’s on the road, and the Colonial’s potential three-bid triumvirate of VCU, Old Dominion, and George Mason. The predominant losers in the TV games were the MVC’s Wichita State, Missouri State plus the aforementioned Gaels out of the WCC. All three would be well-advised to win their conference tournaments as a result if they want to play in the NCAA Tournament.

However, there were more losers that didn’t come close to any airtime.

The CAA’s success at the hands of Wichita State, Missouri State, and Cleveland State likely confined the Missouri Valley to a one-bid league for the fourth straight season and probably did the same to Cleveland State’s at-large candidacy. George Mason, who had just come off of a huge win at VCU last Tuesday to essentially sew up the CAA regular-season title, had nothing to gain by playing a Northern Iowa team that faded from the Valley title race earlier in the month. The Patriots won, and will almost surely be in the tournament.

One of the biggest surprises of this year’s event was Valparaiso’s home win over Missouri State. Valpo put on an impressive offensive display, scoring a phenomenal 1.27 points per possession against a team that had allowed 0.99 a trip in Valley play. On Monday, with a share of the league title on the line were they to win out, the Crusaders bottled it on the road against a middling Wisconsin-Green Bay team. Did Valpo lose because it got to full of itself after the BracketBusters win? Only the great Homer Drew knows that. But the Crusaders did have to get out of the mindset of Horizon League league play they had been in so they could face the Bears, and lost 48 hours after playing the non-conference game.

VCU

Verse Old Dominion: This is a really solid mid-major team. In this game they lost to Old Dominion, but I think Old Dominion is very solid. They run out a ton of athletic height. Not CAA height, ACC height. Skeen is their primary big and he likes to get out and run. This team is best in transition. In this game, the 1/2 court of ODU kinda threw them a curve ball. Get them in transition and look out. They have a very steady and experienced point guard in Rodriguez and have an athletic forward in Burgess. They are NOT a great perimeter team – inside scoring and transition scoring. They press almost all game and they have excellent depth.

Vegas Note: This team had an extremely low scoring half verse Richmond and in this game struggled in the first half. It’s like they get too amped up and verse half court teams struggle to adjust. They did turn it up huge against Richmond and in this game in the second half.

Vs Witchita State: This is a team that on paper and watching you’d think is the next George Mason. Solid point guard play by Rodriguez. Scoring forward with , and a really solid big in Skeen. But in this game, they struggled to score. Now WST is really solid defensively, but they went six minutes without a basket and Im just not sure who their go to guy is?.. Rodgriguez is solid, but he is not a break down point guard. He just doesnt have that next step. They put a lot of nice bodies on the floor and they play good defense, so they can match up with just about anyone. I just wonder if they can score consistently enough to win. I would think this team is a 5 – 10 point loser depending on how the other team scores and shoots free throws.