Dana Oneil Xavier January

I’m tempted to say this with authority and move it up a section but I’ll reserve final judgment until next week, after the Musketeers play at Dayton and host Saint Louis.

But I feel pretty confident saying that Xavier has shaken off its post-brawl cobwebs for good. X has won four in a row, winning by an average 15.5 points per game. Equally impressive, the Musketeers have won with Tu Holloway being more distributor than scorer. The guard has just 29 points in those four games (he was shut out against Fordham) but has 30 assists.

The wildly unpredictable Atlantic 10 is wide open for the taking. I’d pencil Xavier in as the taker.

Jan 8 Cinderella pick article Xavier

Not sure if the brawl has damaged their chances to make the dance by throwing them off the mental game, but here is the article’s suggestion:

Xavier hasn’t reached the deep waters that Butler has. The Musketeers have been less consistent as Gonzaga (but only slightly). However, they have become the biggest presence in what I would consider the seventh power league. The Atlantic-10 can ball. Temple’s proved it. Saint Joseph’s has proved it. Richmond is proving it. And the X-men lead them all, even through a rotation of head coaches (Pete Gillen, the late Skip Prosser, Thad Matta, Sean Miller).

Now it’s Chris Mack’s turn to lead the school to its first Final Four berth. The talent is there, as evidenced by their top-10 ranking a few weeks back. The team is as tough as anybody. My problem is that under Mack, the toughness seems to have run amuck (a brawl with crosstown rival Cincinnati will show that just a bit). If they can reign in the “thuggish” attitude, this program has the capability to make more deep runs in March.

 

Xavier vs St Louis Wardo notes

Xavier closes out the regular season winning their last 16 of 17, last losing over a month ago.  Earlier in the season they were not doing very well.  They are only 14-14 against the spread for the season.  Their biggest wins were Seton Hall, Butler and Iowa, not really a resume for my betting money.  They did beat the spread on these games (push with Butler).  The big names that beat them were all also losses against the spread (Old Dom, Zaga, Florida, and Cinci). 

Against St Louis (what the hell is a Billiken?), X played physical, outrebounding 45-26 helped by their 7 foot tall Kenny Frease with 12 rebounds.  St Louis shot horrible in the first half, but X seemed to play down to their level and wasn’t much hotter (St Louis 2 for their first 18 shots, X only made 9 FG in the first half).   NOTE:  Kirk had the same observation about playing down to their competition (vs Gonzaga notes). 

Smaller and younger matchups might fail against Xavier.  They didn’t shoot many 3s, hitting 4 of 13, 3 of those 4 were Holloways (out of 5 he attempted).  If they are always that weak in first half shooting, a first half under might be good if they are matched with another poor shooting team. 

12 Over, 13 under, but only 3 o/u were over 145 (they went under on 2 and over on against the weak La Salle Explorers (100-62 with an O/U of 153).

Mid field upset possibles part 2 Xavier

This version of the Queen City team doesn’t include swingman Jordan Crawford or big man Jason Love, yet they are still in position to win the A-10 title outright this season. Thing is, I don’t think that the X-Men have as much potential to go further than their scintillating Sweet 16 run a year ago.

Don’t get me wrong. Tu Holloway, Jordan Latham, Dante Jackson, and the bunch will be out to prove me wrong. But I’m not as high on them with the missed chances to get those nice out-of-conference notches. Even though they paid Butler back for the controversial win in Indianapolis, the Musketeers lost to Old Dominion, Gonzaga, Florida, and Cincinnati. Maybe the trend will warm up with the weather, but I’m not betting on it.

Upset potential: Second round

Xavier is 23-6 (as of 3/3) but ONLY 14-14 against the spread.

Xavier

Xavier Stu
Tu Holloway is fun to watch. Very cool. Can rain the 3, gets to the line a lot and makes 87%. They only played 7 guys. As Holloway goes, so goes Xavier.

Xavier

Season Outlook:  In keeping with a recent trend, Xavier lost two of its best players in Jordan Crawford and Jason Love. It marks the fourth year in a row the Musketeers have lost their leading scorer from the previous season. Crawford’s loss is painful because of his 20.5 points-per-game represented more than a quarter of the team’s scoring. It seems foolish to say this could be the season that Xavier stumbles and doesn’t compete for the A-10 Championship, given their recent history. But this could be the season. Unlike in years past, when the Musketeers have been able to weather the departure of talented upperclassmen by having even more talented underclassmen ready to take their place, Xavier doesn’t have any stars this season. Holloway might be one of the best point guards in the A-10, but he’s not the type of player who can carry a team for extended periods. Lyons has talent, but he’s not that type of player either. The frontcourt could be a cause for concern throughout the season unless Frease gets in shape and McLean becomes more consistent. If every starter maximizes his potential, and some of the freshmen contribute immediately, the Musketeers have the talent and the swagger to compete for the conference title.

Vs Butler: Not shooting from beyond the three well at all but still really enjoy shooting it. I agree with the preview… they just really lack that stud down low. Against Butler you would think they could get it in low and dominate, but their bigs were all one off from awesome. They had plenty of them, just no one who took over. Their guards were good, but again, no one dominating. This team could win in the tournament. They have a ton of talent, they defend well, and they are grizzled vets.. BUT… I would watch them as teh year goes on. Look for more effective execution of the offense.. this could overcome individual gaps.. or look for someone to emerge that can really create offensively. In years past, Xavier was like an upper tier Big Ten team. This year they read more like a middle of the pack.

Vs Gonzaga: Ughh.. At this point I plan to stop watching these guys. They are just terrible on offense. At one point with 5 minutes left in the first half, ONLY Holloway scored.  Their front court is not good and McClain can get into foul trouble. If he does, it is over. They can not score. They do seem to also play each game at the pace of their competitor. Overall, other than Holloway no one is a consistent scorer and no one can create their own shot. This is NOT your typical Xavier team.

Vs Temple… Hmmmm… I want to say.. here they come..? In this game, Xavier was very Xavierish… Tons of athletes scoring from all over. Tu can beat almost anyone off the dribble, there are several 3 point shooters, and down low they have enough presence in Freese and McClean to make you guard them. Inside with Freese and McClean, they actual put the ball down there and say.. SCORE… and at times it is clunky BUT that emphasis keeps teams honest. They completely run run run in transition which killed Temple and their defense is getting really good! Now the bad… Their post players are thin. They really only have the 2 I mentioned and some decent coverage by others. If McClean or Freese get in foul trouble (which is very likely verse really good scoring bigs) then I still see this team struggling. That said, I do feel that this is becomming a typical Xavier team rapidly and I was impressed by them in this game. Lyons and Holloway can flat out handle the ball and their other role players understand that role and are starting to execute it well!

Vs Richmond: Holloway scored 33 points, making all 17 of his free throws attempts in Xavier’s stunningly easy 85-62 win at Richmond. Holloway has found a way to get fouled and is making 86 percent of his free throws. Xavier’s Chris Mack should be the coach of the year with the Musketeers at their rightful spot atop the standings. Mack has coached XU to a 7-0 mark despite a plethora of early-season injuries and issues. He’s maximizing the talent of big man Kenny Frease as well, who is averaging 12.4 points and 6.9 rebounds a game. He’s scoring 14.1 points and shooting 63.8 percent in the A-10. “We’ve got competitive kids,’’ Mack said Saturday night. “We kept working. We’ve made no excuses. Holloway and our inside game has been great.’’ Kirk Note: AHHHH Not Yet.. not ready to say bet on this team. Listen… they are well coached.. they passed the ball well and really seemed to own the technical side of this game.. but they just are not THAT Xavier team yet. I thought their zone had holes that Richmond couldnt take advantage of. I thought they were still light inside. On offense good but not great because bigs are good+ not great and guards are good+ and not great. They are getting a player or two back right now, lets see. Like em, dont love em.