Instead, on Saturday, we saw the team that led us to doubt that status in the first place. Vandy yielded a 12-point second-half lead, allowed Mississippi State to score 1.14 points per possession and got vastly outrebounded on both ends of the floor. In the end, even with very good chances to win the game — particularly the final shot in regulation, which ended up being an uncontested four-foot shot for Festus Ezeli (which he missed) — Vanderbilt just couldn’t make the key defensive plays.

Teams that I think are under the radar but will be a handful in March:

Alabama: This team has solid inside and outside presence. They have that toughness moxie that I love and they have a coach who I think is underappreciated right now in Anthony Grant.

Texas: I saw this team play Kansas (1/21) and they are getting better by the day. Their guards are becoming aggressive and attacking and their bigs look athletic and at times angry.

Cincinnati: This team.. I want to hate them as they are the usual crop of thugs that Cincinnati seems to staff their roster with.. but this team is different. I get the irony, given the fight, but this team has that raw aggression and street attitude of other Cinci teams, but with more discipline and control. Kilpatrick makes far better decisions than previous lead guards.  I think Cronin has some receptivity to coaching aligned with an attitude that we can NOT lose and this makes this Cinci team very dangerous.

Temple: This is a really good team and they get their two best bigs back in early February. If they can stay heathy and fold them in then this team could easily make a deep run in the tournament.

Other notes: I just don’t see the Iona thing. Machiado gets mentioned a lot but I watched that team and I was unimpressed or at least.. UNDERimprssed. I may add New Mexico to that list. They returned everyone, win games, have Alford, but somehow leave me unimpressed when I see them.  

I am impressed with the guards of Murray State. Real deal. Not sure I will bet on them, but they play as a team and they have TWO shooters who can light it up. Creighton and Wichita State are the real deal. Very good teams.

I just can not get my head/hands around how to rate Illinois, Memphis, Notre Dame, or St Marys. For some reason, I have an inability to formulate an opinion on them worth betting on. I might add Georgetown to that. They are so hot and cold, up and down, high scoring and low scoring. They are so young, though, I need them to find their identity.. quickly.

I worry that Purdue, Wisconsin and West Virginia are typical of their teams, but with just a TAD less talent than years past.

I have to overcome my bias with Vanderbilt and Minnesota. I hate them and their coaches but they may be getting better at the right time.

I think teams that could surprise moving forward are Setan Hall, NC State, Virginia, Dayton.

Teams I love but spreads may temper my enthusiasm.. Kansas State, UNLV, Florida and Indiana. 

I think I like the “states” in most March matchups including Michigan State, Miss State, and Florida State.

Teams I kinda like but I need more input on include Marquette, Virginia, San Diego St. and Michigan.

Some teams I think I dont like but I am not set include Louisville, Xavier, and any PAC 12 team.

Vandy was missing its toughest, and most irreplaceable, player early in the season, as big man Festus Ezeli had two issues: a six-game suspension for receiving extra benefits and an injury.

The Dores were humbled in a home loss to Horizon League contender Cleveland State. Respectable overtime losses to Xavier and Louisville followed, as did less respectable losses (Indiana State).

They have been finding their form since, winning eight in a row. The most impressive of those wins was a 74-57 triumph against Marquette in Milwaukee; the Eagles were supposed to be the tougher team, but Vandy got in their grill and delivered a knockout.

The Commodores enter a three-game homestand as the second-hottest team in the SEC outside of Kentucky, with games against Mississippi State on Saturday, Tennessee on Tuesday and then on Jan. 28 against Sun Belt leader Middle Tennessee.

The Dores are tied with Kentucky at 4-0 for first in the SEC. Before the season, the Commodores expected to be the Wildcats’ strongest competition in the league race.

“We’ve finally gotten consistent practice time,” Stallings said. “If you can’t practice, you can’t get better. Since Christmas, we’ve had the core group of guys practicing.”

Ezeli was out. Lance Goulbourne and Steve Tchiengang were limited while recovering from concussions. John Jenkins had a sprained ankle. Those may sound like excuses, but a team that had been fragile in the past couldn’t afford that many disruptions.

Ezeli has played in eight of the 18 games. The Commodores lost only one — Indiana State.

“He’s huge for us defensively,” said Stallings. “If you look at how we are now versus early in the season, it’s drastically different. We’ve gotten better on the defensive end and a lot better on the boards. We’re nowhere near where we can get to offensively. Defensively and rebounding has taken a big turn for us.”

Ezeli and Tchiengang have the ability to play physical, which helped the Dores dominate the inside against Alabama in a win on the road Thursday.

Jeffery Taylor can be a lockdown wing defender. He can also make timely shots. Jenkins has always been the team’s best shooter. Brad Tinsley has had his moments but is streaky. The overall bench production needs to improve. But there is enough in play, and there’s certainly enough experience, for this team to establish itself as the second-best team in the SEC.

Having Ezeli healthy has changed this team. He’s not a shot-blocker, but he’s a presence in the paint, one Vandy could not do without. When he’s in the lineup, the Commodores’ toughness quotient increases.

“People are quick to call us soft or whatever,” Stallings said. “I would venture to say if you asked teams we’ve played, we’re not soft.”

There are still plenty of games to play in the SEC, but the evidence is mounting that the Dores are remedying the issues that plagued them early in the season

Not long ago, Kilpatrick was the epicenter of trouble. It was his comments on a Cincinnati radio show that reportedly lit the fuse to what would become the ugly brawl between Xavier and the Bearcats. Kilpatrick said he didn’t believe Tu Holloway would even start for Cincinnati, a nasty enough dissing to get Holloway’s tongue wagging during the game and ultimately, mayhem to ensue.

Now he’s the epicenter of the Bearcats’ turnaround. Cincinnati has won 10 of 11 since that ugly fight, losing only to St. John’s on a buzzer-beater. In those 10 games, Kilpatrick is averaging 17.7 points and kept the Bearcats afloat while Yancy Gates served his suspension.

It was Kilpatrick who hit the game-winning 3 against Connecticut, Kilpatrick who sunk a career-high 27 to beat Georgetown, and Kilpatrick whose 40 percent shooting from the arc will be absolutely critical against top-ranked Syracuse on Monday.

The good news for the Tigers: Conference USA is once again Conference USA, a hodgepodge of average teams.

The bad news for the Tigers: Memphis isn’t Memphis. This team has been something of an enigma all season, loaded with talent but equally bogged down with foolish play and lack of focus.

Now just when things looked better, Adonis Thomas is lost for the season. It’s not a small blow for a team that hasn’t really shown an ability to handle adversity.

Memphis remains the best team in C-USA, but with challengers in the form of UCF and Marshall, this isn’t going to be easy for Josh Pastner.

Which is to say loaded with talent but entirely annoying.

The Bulldogs lost to rival Mississippi on Wednesday night, getting beat up on the inside by Reginald Buckner. This despite having what should be their own formidable pair in Renardo Sidney and Arnett Moultrie.

It is vintage Mississippi State, winning enough games to turn people into converts and then losing one to exasperate those same bandwagon jumpers.

But I feel pretty confident saying that Xavier has shaken off its post-brawl cobwebs for good. X has won four in a row, winning by an average 15.5 points per game. Equally impressive, the Musketeers have won with Tu Holloway being more distributor than scorer. The guard has just 29 points in those four games (he was shut out against Fordham) but has 30 assists.

The wildly unpredictable Atlantic 10 is wide open for the taking. I’d pencil Xavier in as the taker.

Now we know.

The Aztecs took their Show on the road on Wednesday night, to the Pit, one of the toughest places to play in all of college basketball, and promptly dug themselves a 10-0 hole.

San Diego State emerged from New Mexico with a 75-70 victory, a win that is maybe more indicative of how legit this team is than the victory against UNLV.

I’d say that makes the Buckeyes, Orange, and Wildcats pretty good bets for an Elite Eight run or better, but you can’t trust Wisconsin no matter what the stats say. Twice in the past five tournaments the Badgers have gone into the tournament with a 30+ efficiency split. Two other times they were over 25. They have yet to make it out of the Sweet 16, and didn’t even get there twice. Until Bo Ryan shows his style can actually get the job done in the Tourney setting, I’m viewing their potential with a heavy dose of skepticism.

I said you can’t trust Wisconsin. Same goes with Georgetown. In 2007, their efficiency split was 35+ and they made the Final Four. In 2008, it was 30+ and they lost in the second round. The past two years, it was 25+ and 18+ and they got bounced in round 1. This year the 11th-ranked Hoyas are at just past 21. So even if they end up a 3- or 4-seed, beware of some serious upset potential.

Baylor is on course for a possible one seed, but their 23.83 efficiency split would be by far the lowest of any top seed in the past five years. In fact, only one two seed has had a lower split, and that was the 2010 Villanova team that got upset in the second round.

In the five years I’ve been tracking this, no NCAA tournament team with an efficiency split over 30 or more has lost in the first round. (Efficiency split is a team’s offensive efficiency minus its defensive efficiency.)

* Of the 26 teams who have entered the tournament over the past five years with an efficiency split of 30 or higher, 22 have made at least the Sweet 16, 17 have made at least the Elite Eight, 11 have made the Final Four, and four have won the title (with two others losing in the title game).

* On the flip side, of the 78 teams that have come into the tournament over the past five years with an efficiency split under 10, 71 of them lost their first game and only one has made it out of the second round. That was VCU, which somehow found its way into the Final Four with an 8.8 split. The next lowest to make it out of the first weekend was last year’s Butler team that made it to the championship game with a split of 15.

power of the efficiency split. (Note: It’s actually adjusted efficiency from KenPom.com.)

 For 2012, As of games played on Tuesday (JAN 10)  only four teams are at the 30+ level: Ohio State (34.37), Syracuse (32.34), Kentucky (31.16), and Wisconsin (30.48).